Analyst says 41.5% drop in last year's BTC buying points to a market bottom

A market analysis by crypto analyst Murphy said BTC bought last year is now mostly underwater at current prices, and a decline in those holdings, excluding wallet transfers, suggests stop-loss selling is taking place. In a post on X, Murphy said BTC bought in 2025 has fallen 41.5% from the December 2024 peak, leaving 4.77 million BTC. Murphy added that in past bear-market bottoms, BTC bought near the previous bull-market peak declined 62% in 2018 and 51% in 2022. Applying that pattern mechanically, Murphy said the market could form a bottom when the decline reaches around 50% to 60%, versus about 41% now. Murphy also said the pace of selling has slowed noticeably since February, the remaining holdings have shown limited movement, and additional selling pressure could be limited when factoring in BTC held by ETFs and Strategy.