VanEck says BTC market stress has peaked, sees rebound signal

VanEck said stress in the BTC market has reached an extreme and may be signaling a rebound ahead. According to a recent report, eight of the 12 capitulation indicators tracked by VanEck have now been triggered. Based on past cases, that level of market stress has more often appeared ahead of price recoveries than before further sharp declines. VanEck’s analysis of the eight capitulation indicators showed worsening profitability for miners, rising realized losses for investors, and broader signs of sell-side exhaustion that typically emerge near the end of a bear market. Bitcoin’s current 30% to 45% decline from its peak also aligns with that historical pattern. VanEck said the simultaneous activation of two-thirds of its tracked capitulation indicators suggests the market has moved beyond a simple profit-taking phase and entered a broader stop-loss and panic-selling stretch. According to VanEck, markets have often posted positive returns after similar capitulation phases in the past. Through its ChainCheck report, VanEck has interpreted such capitulation less as a risk warning and more as a contrarian buy signal. The firm added that miner capitulation and bear markets are not signs of Bitcoin’s structural failure, but recurring features of its roughly four-year halving cycle. In an earlier report, VanEck also said a 4% drop in mining hash rate has historically acted as a bullish signal.