BTC on-chain inflows turn positive, but strong bull cycle call is premature

BTC’s roughly three-month net outflow phase has ended for now as the realized cap HODL waves change indicator turned positive on Aug. 24, while Bitcoin’s 30-day SOPR has remained above one for six straight days, signaling renewed demand above new issuance, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. A CoinNess analysis found the absolute strength of those indicators still lags well behind past bull markets. The realized cap inflow rate, at +0.21%, remains near the lower end of the historical average of +3.24%, while the SOPR reading of 2.52 is also in the bottom 10% compared with the historical median of 7.65. Adler said the shift back to inflows and demand outpacing new supply are positive signals, but it is too early to conclude BTC has entered a strong new upcycle and further monitoring is needed to see whether the inflows persist.