CME FedWatch sees 65.9% chance of a 25-bp rate hike at September FOMC

The CME FedWatch tool shows a 65.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, while the probability of a pause stands at 34.1%. CME FedWatch, a rate outlook tool provided by CME Group, calculates the probability of future FOMC rate moves based on market expectations reflected in prices for 30-day federal funds futures. The gauge is therefore meaningful as an indicator of rate expectations currently priced in by financial market participants, rather than as the Federal Reserve’s official outlook.