CME FedWatch sees 90.4% chance of a September Fed rate hike after August CPI

CME FedWatch showed a 90.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September, up 18 percentage points from 72.4% yesterday, after the U.S. Department of Labor said just moments ago that August consumer price index rose 3.4% from a year earlier, matching market forecasts. CME FedWatch is a rate outlook tool provided by CME Group that calculates the probability of rate changes at upcoming FOMC meetings based on market expectations embedded in pricing for 30-day federal funds futures. As such, the gauge reflects how financial market participants are pricing the rate path rather than the Fed’s official outlook.