Analysis warns BTC could mirror 2022 dead-cat bounce before deeper slide

As the Federal Reserve has resumed monetary tightening for the first time in more than three years by raising its benchmark rate, the Bitcoin market is showing a risk pattern similar to the early stage of the 2022 bear market, CoinDesk analyzed. At the time of the first rate hike in March 2022, BTC was already down 40% from its previous all-time high of $69,000, then posted a sudden 18% rebound over 12 days immediately after the hike before quickly entering a major bear market with a further 50% slide. BTC is now also down 40% from its all-time high of $126,000, raising the possibility of a sharp short-term rebound followed by a second steep sell-off, according to the analysis. Amid macro headwinds including oil prices rising above $100 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5%, the market is pricing in an additional 75-basis-point increase over the next six months. With no one-off hike precedent since 1955, market tension is rising over whether Bitcoin could pass through a misleading short-term rebound and then fall into a prolonged 2022-style bear market.