BTC recovery may need over 76% of supply in profit to continue

Bitcoin’s September rebound lifted the share of BTC supply in profit to 72%, but price momentum has weakened, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a blog post. The metric measures the share of total supply last moved at prices below the current level. Adler said the ratio rose from 65% to 73.8% as BTC climbed from $76,000 to $87,000 between Sept. 17 and Sept. 27, marking the highest level since January. It later slipped to 72%, still below the long-term average of 76%, Adler added. He said a recovery would signal continuation if momentum turns positive again and the ratio rises above 76%. If momentum turns negative and the ratio falls toward 65%, a significant portion of the supply that returned to profit in September would move back into loss, according to Adler.