BTC rose after all three U.S. midterms, but rates and demand may shape this cycle

Bitcoin rose over the 12 months following all three past U.S. midterm elections, though whether that pattern will repeat this time will depend on interest rates, buying demand and the regulatory environment, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Japan said. XWIN Japan said BTC gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% over the 12 months following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, respectively. In 2018, however, BTC also fell 45.5% in the first month after the election. The S&P 500, meanwhile, rose in every case over the 12 months following 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1950, with an average gain of 15.4%, XWIN Japan said. Still, XWIN Japan added that Bitcoin's sample size is limited to just three cases, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about future performance based on historical patterns alone. Stability in U.S. Treasury yields, sustained buying demand and progress on regulation will be key this time, XWIN Japan said.