Bitcoin volatility falls, but extreme price swings become more frequent

Unusually large Bitcoin price moves have become more frequent than in the past even as overall volatility has declined, CoinDesk reported. Bitcoin has logged 10 three-sigma moves so far in 2026, above the eight recorded during the 2018 bear market. A three-sigma move refers to a price change that falls well outside the normal range based on recent volatility. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility fell to around 46% this year from about 84% in 2018, while the average size of three-sigma moves narrowed to about 7% from 10%. In other words, average price fluctuations have eased, but sharp moves relative to recent volatility have occurred more often. Market participants cited macroeconomic shocks and leverage and crowded positioning in derivatives markets as the main drivers. They said concentrated option-selling strategies built on expectations of persistently low volatility can amplify sudden price swings through position liquidations when unexpected news emerges.