CME FedWatch shows 95.2% chance of Fed rate hold in June
May 04, 2026, 10:08 PM
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in the following probabilities for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions:
- June: 95.2% chance of a rate hold, 4.8% chance of a 25 bp cut.
- July: 92.2% chance of a rate hold, 7.7% chance of a cumulative 25 bp cut, and 0.2% chance of a cumulative 50 bp cut.
- September: 86.1% chance of a rate hold, 13.2% chance of a cumulative 25 bp cut, and 0.6% chance of a cumulative 50 bp cut.