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Arthur Hayes: Chinese monetary policy could ignite crypto marketArthur Hayes, Co-Founder of Seychelles-incorporated crypto exchange and derivatives platform BitMEX, suggests that China could inject a substantial amount of credit into its economy, potentially giving a boost to Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.Photo by Eric Prouzet on UnsplashPotential flood of yuan creditThe firebrand crypto OG outlined his thoughts on the matter in a blog post which was published on Monday. Hayes discussed how, although China has currently made credit expensive in order to hold back credit growth and inspire confidence in the economy, its monetary authorities might be gearing up to flood the economy with yuan credit, creating a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies.He outlined a series of factors contributing to this potential surge in Chinese credit. He pointed to the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and the Chinese yuan, emphasizing how recent U.S. actions are laying the groundwork for China to issue substantial credit, particularly to its struggling property sector.Describing U.S. policy as “weakening the dollar by issuing more Treasury bills,” Hayes noted the consequent decline of the dollar index (DXY) throughout November. He argued that the weaker dollar gives China the flexibility to increase yuan credit without significant depreciation, possibly even leading to yuan appreciation.If the Federal Reserve at a minimum holds rates and better still, starts to cut rates, China will be in a position to pursue the stimulus needed for its property market and for infrastructure spending.Hong Kong as the gateway to capital marketsAccording to Hayes, the global monetary dynamics set in motion by these factors could be advantageous for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. He explained that the bulk of the financing will trickle down into speculation within the financial markets. If China starts printing yuan, the capital is likely to flow into global markets, supporting the prices of various risk assets.But how can this happen, given that speculation and crypto trading are prohibited in China? Hayes’ view is that Hong Kong is now China’s gateway to the global capital markets. Wealthy Chinese individuals now bank via Hong Kong. As we have seen, the autonomous Chinese territory has a workable regulatory framework in place and is now actively licensing crypto exchanges and brokers. Consequently Bitcoin and crypto, generally, could be among the risk assets benefiting from an influx of capital.Furthermore, the BitMex co-founder believes that as yuan credit becomes abundant, the global demand for dollar credit and liquidity may decrease. Given that the dollar is a primary funding currency, a fall in the price of credit could lead to a rise in fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin and gold in dollar terms.Hayes concluded what is a long and detailed blog post by stating:“I will continue moving money out of T-bills and into crypto because I want to get in now before it becomes apparent through the data that China’s money printer is going brrrrr.”He suggested that Chinese New Year, which occurs in mid-February of next year, could be the time in which that extra credit materializes in China. Hayes’ latest assertion comes on the back of a bold claim he made last month when he suggested that bitcoin could reach a unit price of $1 million by 2026.

China has provided insights into the conviction of Zhao Dong, the influential crypto over-the-counter (OTC) trader and widely known founder of the RenrenBit crypto trading desk. The ‘OTC King’Last Wednesday, China’s Supreme Procuratorate disclosed that Zhao, known as the "OTC King," was handed down a substantial prison sentence for engaging in illegal foreign exchange and crypto business operations. The case is emblematic of China's persistent efforts to clamp down on cryptocurrency trading, even when conducted through less transparent channels like OTC desks, private chat groups and stablecoins.Photo by Hanson Lu on UnsplashTracing fundsIn their comprehensive disclosure, the Chinese authorities outlined the meticulous investigation that led to Zhao Dong's conviction. The focus was on tracing fund movements across Chinese bank accounts, overseas cash pools and the circulation of Tether and Bitcoin. Investigators honed in on accounts associated with Zhao Dong and the chat groups used for trading activities. Their arsenal included detailed bank records, WeChat conversations, testimonies from Zhao's OTC agents and other documentary evidence. The report highlighted that all defendants, including Zhao Dong, confessed to the process of collecting dirhams in cash in Dubai, paying RMB to the other party's designated account, buying Tether with dirhams, and allowing the domestic gang to illegally sell it back for RMB. Seven year sentenceIn one of the alleged schemes, Zhao Dong purportedly orchestrated crypto-fiat trades between Dubai-based entities holding cash piles in United Arab Emirates (UAE) dirhams and Chinese contacts within the country. With numerous related recipients confirming that the funds Zhao received were payments from foreigners, the prosecution's case was made so much stronger. Zhao unsuccessfully argued during three public court hearings that his actions constituted digital currency transactions and not a breach of foreign exchange laws. The prosecution countered with evidence from the group's chat records, emphasizing the nature of foreign exchange in their dealings. The court ultimately rendered a verdict, sentencing Zhao Dong to seven years in prison and imposing a 2.3 million Chinese yuan ($325,000) fine. This conviction serves as a stark reminder of the stringent regulatory stance that China has adopted towards cryptocurrency trading. Zhao Dong was considered one of China's most influential OTC crypto traders. He was a Bitfinex shareholder and founder of the D Fund venture capital fund. He established RenrenBit in August 2018, incorporating the company in Singapore. The influential crypto trader is also believed to have been involved in assisting stablecoin-issuer Tether to launch its Tether Yuan product. However, once the authorities moved against him, RenrenBit was taken offline while Tether scrapped its pursuit of Tether Yuan. Despite his influence, Zhao has ultimately become a symbol of the government's commitment to curbing such crypto trading activities within mainland China. The outcome underscores the severity of China's regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrency trading and sends a strong message to other players in the crypto space within the country.

As Excitement for First US Spot Bitcoin ETF Intensifies, South Korea Still Faces Mountain to ClimbThe price of bitcoin has surged significantly as it recorded an 18% increase in the past week, spurred by mounting anticipation surrounding the US’ first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) propelled by asset management juggernauts BlackRock and Fidelity Investments — a threshold that had not been crossed in over a year. According to CoinMarketCap, bitcoin is trading in the upper $33,000 range as of 5 p.m. KST on Wednesday.Photo by André François McKenzie on UnsplashOngoing buildupThe approval of a spot bitcoin ETF — long rejected or delayed due to a plethora of reasons like the volatility of cryptocurrencies and their susceptibility to market manipulation — would in the long run open up the possibility for institutions to earmark bitcoin as a major asset that can be integrated into the sphere of traditional finance. This would make bitcoin easier to handle and increase its exposure to traditional investors. “The mere possibility of this development marks a significant shift in the market landscape,” said an unnamed executive at a Korean asset management company in a news article by South Korean news outlet Maeil Business Newspaper.BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, was also listed on the US Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)’s website with the ticker symbol IBTC on Monday before it mysteriously disappeared the following day. It has since been relisted on the website. The listing is “all part of the process of bringing ETF to market”, as explained by Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas via his X (formerly Twitter) account on Tuesday.Is a spot bitcoin ETF on the table for Korea?However, Korean experts believe that there are still numerous hurdles to overcome in order for a spot bitcoin ETF to settle in Korea. In particular, some question whether cryptocurrency platforms that offer custodial services can even be classified as exchanges. There is also the issue of bitcoin’s varying prices across different exchanges. Its current price on Upbit, the country’s largest crypto exchange, is in the KRW 45.9 million range as of 5 p.m. on Wednesday. Local financial authorities have reportedly expressed skepticism about bitcoin ETFs for these reasons, suggesting a murky future for this development becoming a reality in Korea.