Regulatory Pressure Sees Binance Cease Card Offering in the Middle East

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Beijing Municipal Government Unveils Web3 White PaperIn what is being perceived by many as a significant development, the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, also known as the Administrative Commission of Zhongguancun Science Park, has released a white paper titled “Web3 Innovation and Development.”Photo by zhang kaiyv on PexelsThe “inevitable trend” of Web3This announcement, as reported by local news outlet, The Paper, was made during the Zhongguancun Forum. The Forum is an event focused on technological advancements and innovation. The white paper acknowledges Web3 technology as an “inevitable trend for future Internet industry development.”The objective of the Beijing Municipal Government is to establish the city as a global innovation hub for the digital economy. To support this ambition, the government plans to allocate a minimum of 100 million yuan (approximately $14 million) annually over the next two years.Enhanced policy supportThe white paper points towards Beijing’s intention to enhance policy support and accelerate technological advancements to foster the growth of the Web3 industry. This strategic move aligns with what appears to be China’s evolving stance toward the crypto industry, as the government aims to leverage the potential of emerging technologies.The timing of the white paper release coincides with the upcoming implementation of new digital asset regulations in Hong Kong. At the beginning of next month, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong will introduce new rules for the cryptocurrency sector, permitting retail investors to engage in crypto trading. This stands in stark contrast to the current regulatory environment in the United States, where authorities have been tightening their control over cryptocurrencies.Second guessing China’s approach to cryptoChina had previously banned the use of cryptocurrencies in 2021. Notwithstanding that, the release of the Web3 white paper may suggest a potential shift in the country’s approach. Notably, on May 23, China Central Television, a state-owned media outlet, aired a segment focused on cryptocurrencies, prominently featuring the Bitcoin logo and a Bitcoin ATM in Hong Kong.This coverage holds significance, but the fact that the video was quickly taken down from the broadcaster’s website casts doubt on just how far down the crypto rabbit hole China is willing to go.Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the Founder and CEO of global crypto exchange Binance, tweeted out that the timing of the publication of the paper is apt given other blockchain and crypto-related initiatives taken on by various Chinese entities. A recent study suggested that Hong Kong is emerging as a leading jurisdiction when it comes to its crypto readiness.It remains to be seen how these developments will unfold and whether Beijing’s proactive approach will pave the way for further integration of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies in China’s digital economy.For the time being, with the release of the white paper, Beijing appears to have taken a significant step forward in shaping its future as a leading player in the global Web3 landscape. However, to what extent Beijing is ‘all in’ on crypto remains imponderable.

South Korean blockchain firm Ozys announced today that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Creder, a company dedicated to integrating traditional assets into the blockchain realm, to tokenize physical assets like precious metals into real-world assets (RWAs), according to Korean news site Digital Today on Thursday (KST). "Gold is one of the major RWA assets as the market value of assets linked with physical goods is increasing in the global market. We will take a transparent approach in expanding the RWA token ecosystem and showcase our business performance through our cooperation," said Lim Dae-hoon, CEO of Creder.Photo by Jingming Pan on UnsplashDriving innovationAs a member of the Klaytn ecosystem, internet juggernaut Kakao’s blockchain, Ozys operates platforms like Allbit.com, a layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX), and a cross-chain token transfer platform dubbed Orbit Bridge. The firm utilizes blockchain-based technologies like smart contracts and Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) to develop and run its platforms. Meanwhile, Creder is currently working on The Mining Club, a project that mints solid gold into NFTs for safe storage and transfer. The gold NFTs are available for purchase on the NFT marketplace OpenSea. It is also developing Gold Station, a platform that allows for the digitized purchase, storage and investment of gold through the Gold Pegged Coin (GPC). GPC is a physical gold-based RWA issued on the Klaytn network. Expanding the scope of Web3The two companies will work together to onboard GPC to KLAYswap – Klaytn’s on-chain swap protocol – which will be issued via smart contract on Jan. 3. The two companies also plan to tokenize other precious metals like silver, copper and palladium. By combining physical assets and blockchain technology, the companies aim to expand the Web3 ecosystem and lead next-generation markets. "The tokenization of gold, which is considered a safe asset, is expected to diversify the Web3 ecosystem," said Choi Jin-han, CEO of Ozys. "We plan to explore various collaborations with Creder, starting with the onboarding of the gold-based token GPC on KLAYswap."