NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTC

Key appointment sees Turkey’s central bank enhance crypto expertiseTurkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has taken a step in integrating blockchain and cryptocurrency expertise into the nation’s monetary policy by appointing Professor Fatma Ozkul to the central bank’s rate-setting committee.Photo by Engin Yapici on UnsplashIncorporating digital financial knowledgeThis decision, which became effective on Saturday, marks a significant move towards incorporating digital financial knowledge within the economic framework of Turkey.As part of Turkey’s economic strategy, President Erdogan has been restructuring the economic management team since his victory in the May general election. This reshuffling included the appointment of ex-Goldman Sachs banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as the central bank’s governor in June.That appointment led to a series of policy rate increases, totaling 3,400 basis points, bringing the rate to 42.5%. Further changes in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) occurred in July, reinforcing the trajectory of monetary tightening.Crypto credentialsProfessor Fatma Ozkul, a lecturer at Istanbul’s Marmara University, joins the MPC with a primary focus on accounting, finance and auditing. Notably, she brings expertise in blockchain technology and crypto assets, having conducted courses on these subjects. Her recent work has delved into the implications of blockchain and crypto assets on finance, culminating in the publication of a book on crypto asset accounting in 2022.While Ozkul’s appointment may not immediately alter the current monetary policy direction, it reflects an understanding of the need to incorporate digital financial tools when formulating economic and monetary policy. Her extensive knowledge in digital finance is expected to contribute significantly to the process of setting benchmark interest rates, a critical instrument in controlling inflation within Turkey.President Erdogan’s emphasis on digital banking aligns with Turkey’s proactive steps in this direction. The central bank introduced a digital Turkish lira collaboration platform in 2021 and successfully tested digital lira transactions in late 2022. Additionally, the government is anticipated to submit a draft law regulating crypto assets in the coming year.Crypto adoptionThe political and economic climate in Turkey has shown a growing interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics company, reports that Turkey recorded nearly $170 billion worth of cryptocurrency transactions between July 2022 and June 2023, ranking fourth globally in terms of raw transaction volumes.A report by KuCoin earlier this year identified a noteworthy increase in the overall number of crypto investors in Turkey over the course of the past 18 months. That growth in adoption was found to be youth-driven. The importance of the Turkish market within the crypto sector is further evidenced by the recent revelation that the Turkish Lira is the most dominant fiat trading pair on leading global crypto exchange Binance.In response to this surge, the Turkish government has been working on cryptocurrency regulations, focusing on licensing and taxes. This regulatory move aims to remove Turkey’s name from the Financial Action Task Force’s “gray list” and align the country with global financial norms.As Professor Ozkul assumes her role, her expertise and input may well play a pivotal part in shaping Turkey’s evolving position and approach where digital assets, blockchain and cryptocurrencies are concerned.

Hong Kong regulator, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), has established guidelines for crypto staking service providers. That’s according to a statement published by the SFC to its website on April 7. The guidance is aimed at licensed virtual asset trading platforms (VATPs) and SFC-authorized funds with exposure to digital assets.Photo by Markus Winkler on UnsplashExpanding service offeringThe regulator points out that the guidance on staking falls in line with its recently announced “ASPIRe” roadmap, which is geared towards ensuring that the Chinese autonomous territory remains relevant in its efforts to maintain its status as a global hub for crypto businesses. Expanding product and service offerings within the crypto sector was one of the five pillars of that plan. Smoothing the way for the offering of staking works towards fulfilling that aspect of the ASPIRe plan. Written approvalIn this guidance, the SFC sets out that licensed service providers must obtain written approval from the regulator before any such product can be offered to investors in Hong Kong. That stipulation applies to both VATPs and authorized funds with digital asset exposure. Additionally, VATPs must retain control over staked assets, with no delegation in the custody of such assets to third parties permitted. In the case of authorized funds that include crypto assets, they must stake virtual asset holdings through licensed VATPs and other authorized institutions. Required disclosuresThe regulator has also stipulated that certain disclosures must be made by licensed exchanges to potential customers in respect of staking products. These include the disclosure of all associated risks, full transparency with regard to fees, minimum lock-up periods and custodial arrangements. Commenting on the provision of this guidance, SFC CEO Julia Leung said that the provision of a greater range of regulated services and products is crucial in order to sustain continued growth of Hong Kong’s virtual asset ecosystem. However, she added that any broadening of the range of services offered “must be done in a regulated environment where the safety of client virtual assets continues to be front and centre of the compliance framework for offering such service.”   The SFC outlined that it recognizes “the potential benefits of staking in enhancing the security of blockchain networks and allowing investors to earn yields on virtual assets within a regulated market environment.” The authorities in Hong Kong are not the only ones who recognize the benefits that the incorporation of staking within crypto investment products can bring. Last month, Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, told the Digital Assets Summit in New York that Ether ETFs would benefit from the addition of staking.  Mitchnick suggested that the current inability to earn a staking yield within such products is a key limitation. He outlined that such a change is dependent upon relevant regulatory changes being implemented in the U.S. A more crypto-friendly climate in the U.S. since U.S. President Donald Trump took office has resulted in various lawsuits being dropped against companies like Coinbase related to the staking services that had been offered. A number of U.S. Ether ETF issuers, including Franklin Templeton, Grayscale and Bitwise, have put forward proposals to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to have staking included in these products.

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026. The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on UnsplashETFs reshaping demand dynamicsThe analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading. That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs. On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities. Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000. Index criteria and Japan policy in viewThe analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews. The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%. RWA and stablecoinsOne area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year. That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030. As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.