Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Crypto Exchange HTX Reports $8 Million Hack Over WeekendCrypto exchange HTX confirmed on Monday that it fell victim to a hack over the weekend, resulting in losses amounting to 5,000 ETH ($8 million).HTX stakeholder Justin Sun, Founder of layer one blockchain TRON, disclosed the breach via an X post. In a series of subsequent X posts, Sun assured users and stakeholders that the exchange had promptly covered the losses, and current user deposits remained secure. He also emphasized that the platform was operating normally despite the security incident.Photo by GuerrillaBuzz on UnsplashHacker incentiveThe TRON Founder also extended an offer to the hacker responsible for the breach. He proposed a 5% reward for the return of the remaining funds, a figure notably lower than the 10% often offered to hackers in similar situations. Additionally, Sun dangled the possibility of a job at the exchange. That’s an unusual response to a cryptocurrency hack and one that had one commentator speculating upon the notion that the hacker belonged to the notorious North Korean Lazarus hacking group, pondering the prudence of such a move.Data from DeFi data aggregator DeFiLlama revealed that Seychelles-based HTX, formerly known as Huobi, witnessed nearly $10 million in outflows, with a remaining $2.73 million in customer deposits as of the latest data.Hacker’s identity may be knownThe hacker, who received a series of messages from an address identified as an HTX hot wallet by Nansen, was presented with a stark choice. The messages, written in both English and simplified Chinese, claimed to have uncovered the hacker’s true identity and urged the return of the stolen funds to the address 0x18709E89BD403F470088aBDAcEbE86CC60dda12e. In return, HTX offered a 5% “white hat bonus” valid until October 2, 2023. If the funds were not returned by that date, law enforcement would be involved, the message warned.The hack came shortly after Justin Sun shared a promotional video in which he depicted himself defeating a hooded figure symbolizing a hacker “shorting crypto” with a single punch while on a spaceship journey to what appeared to be Mars.Insolvency fearsOn Tuesday, Sun outlined that the exchange had established a “SAFU” (Safe Asset Fund for Users) fund for platform users. However, taking to X on Monday, Adam Cochran, Managing Partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, claimed that there was a likelihood that the HTX business is insolvent. Cochran maintains that available data suggests a shortfall in crypto holdings relative to HTX users' assets.Travis Kling, Founder and Chief Information Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, went one further on X, stating:”Not “probably”. Huobi is insolvent.”Kling, a long-time critic of Binance, went on to suggest that if Huobi were to collapse, that event would likely lead to Binance unraveling also.HTX originated in China and nowadays maintains offices in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and the UK. It has long been speculated that Justin Sun has a controlling stake in the HTX business. Sun has denied that assertion, instead suggesting that he is a member of HTX’s “Global Advisory Board.”

Japan and China are moving in different directions on digital finance. In Japan, senior officials are signaling a push to bring cryptocurrencies further into the mainstream financial system. In China, regulators are doubling down on limits for private-sector tokenization even as the central bank expands a state-led digital currency model.Photo by Nat on UnsplashTraditional exchanges to anchor crypto pushSpeaking at the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Jan. 5, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama framed 2026 as “the inaugural year of digital” in her New Year’s address, according to local outlet CoinPost. She said she expects cryptocurrency adoption to broaden as commodity and stock exchanges take on a larger role, arguing that established market infrastructure will be key to realizing the benefits of blockchain-based assets. Pointing to the U.S., she noted that exchange-traded funds are commonly used as an inflation hedge, and suggested Japan could move in a similar direction. Katayama also struck an upbeat tone on the wider economy, saying she expects Japanese stocks to hit new record highs this year. She cast 2026 as a potential turning point as Japan seeks to move beyond a long stretch of deflation, and called for responsible but proactive fiscal policy alongside targeted investment in growth sectors. Her comments come as Tokyo considers a major overhaul of how crypto gains are taxed. Under a government proposal, profits from cryptocurrencies would be taxed at a flat 20%, aligning them more closely with levies on stocks and foreign-exchange trading. The framework would also cover crypto-linked ETFs and derivatives. Currently, crypto gains are treated as miscellaneous income, leaving investors subject to progressive rates that can climb to roughly 55% once local taxes are included. The proposed reforms would bring crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. While the package is slated for discussion during the upcoming ordinary Diet session, which is scheduled to begin on Jan. 23, officials do not expect it to take effect before 2028, given the scope of the required legal and regulatory changes. Industry groups flag RWA tokenization risksChina, by contrast, continues to take a restrictive stance toward private digital-asset activity. Seven major financial industry associations—including the National Internet Finance Association of China, the Banking Association, and the Securities Association—issued a joint statement warning that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is illegal and amounts to a “risky business model,” according to Wu Blockchain, citing a WeChat post published last month. The associations argued that RWA tokenization still functions as a form of unauthorized fundraising barred under existing securities laws. They also warned of risks tied to both the projects and their underlying assets, including fraud, operational failures, and speculative hype, adding that even when the assets themselves are legitimate, token structures remain unreliable and could pose spillover risks to other parts of the financial system. The statement added that such activities have not received regulatory approval. The warning fits with Beijing’s broader, state-led approach to digital finance. Last month, Lu Lei, a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), warned that unchecked private-sector innovation could pose challenges for monetary policy, arguing that the rapid growth of digital assets and stablecoins risks weakening central banks’ control over money flows. Against that backdrop, Lu said the PBOC has rolled out a new operational framework for its central bank digital currency that took effect on Jan. 1. The move places the digital yuan in a deposit-like role within the commercial banking system under a two-tier structure, with the central bank overseeing rules and infrastructure and commercial banks handling wallets, payments, and compliance. By late November 2025, the digital yuan network had processed 3.48 billion transactions totaling 16.7 trillion yuan ($2.3 trillion), underscoring how China is channeling digital finance through a centrally controlled system. The system includes about 230 million personal wallets and 18.84 million corporate wallets. 

Singapore-based Marketnode has successfully completed its Series A investment round, receiving backing from global banking leader HSBC and its existing shareholder, Temasek. While the precise funding amount remains undisclosed, the firm plans to utilize the capital to expand its financial market infrastructure. Marketnode aims to develop neutral infrastructure for digital fixed-income and structured products, initially focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to create a comprehensive multi-asset ecosystem.Photo by Markus Winkler on UnsplashStrategic collaborations and future projectsRehan Ahmed, President of Marketnode, highlighted the strategic alliance with HSBC as a pivotal move towards establishing the next generation of trusted and neutral market infrastructure. The investment will also accelerate the launch of Fundnode, a new investment fund infrastructure powered by distributed ledger technology. Additionally, the collaboration will support future offerings of tokenized assets. Marketnode has been engaging with HSBC since 2020, including participation in Singapore's Project Guardian and various digital bond initiatives led by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Regulatory landscape in SingaporeSimultaneously, Singapore continues to tighten regulations within its crypto sector. Following its stringent licensing framework, the Singaporean authorities recently announced an expansion in the scope of companies regulated under its payment services rules. This measure aims to enhance supervision of digital asset firms, focusing on anti-money laundering efforts and user protection.