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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Policy & Regulation·

Sep 20, 2023

CoinEx Reveals Insights Into Recent Platform Hack

CoinEx Reveals Insights Into Recent Platform HackHong Kong crypto exchange CoinEx has issued a further update relative to the security breach that occurred on the platform last week resulting in one of the exchange’s hot wallets being compromised.Photo by FLY:D on UnsplashImmediate responseIn the immediate aftermath of the $70 million hack, CoinEx took action to safeguard user assets and initiate an investigation into the incident. It suspended all deposit and withdrawal services and executed an emergency shutdown of the hot wallet server. Following this, the company securely moved the remaining assets to cold storage, commencing the process of reconstructing and deploying a new wallet architecture.The firm also engaged in an investigation, spearheaded by its wallet and security teams, to ascertain the extent of the breach. Moreover, CoinEx claims to have proactively reached out to fellow exchanges to freeze any assets related to the attack.Haipo Yang, the Founder and CEO of CoinEx, conveyed his apologies to affected users through his personal X (formerly Twitter) account. He emphasized the team’s commitment to restoring services promptly and reassured users that their funds will remain secure.Following up on that commitment, CoinEx published an update on the hot wallet hack on September 15 to address these concerns individually.New wallet deploymentThe exchange expects to finalize wallet upgrades within the upcoming week, after which withdrawals will gradually be phased in, subject to security evaluations. The CoinEx team is currently working on developing and deploying an entirely new and robust wallet system capable of managing activities across 211 chains and 737 assets.The firm has outlined that each of its product lines operates independently, featuring its own risk control system. Consequently, the security incident that occurred on CoinEx will not affect the integrity of its other product lines.In its most recent update on Tuesday, the Hong Kong crypto exchange confirmed that 80% of its wallet system has now been reconstructed. It added that it has initiated preparations to enable the withdrawal system on the platform. It stated:”Details about the resumption of withdrawals, including specific dates, times, and arrangements, will be announced on the CoinEx website. Please stay updated on our announcements for the latest information.”Ongoing investigationRegarding the identity of the attacker, CoinEx has confirmed that the matter is currently under investigation. While some security firms have made attribution claims, the company is focusing primarily on deploying the new wallet architecture, restoring affected users and functionalities, and enhancing overall security.At the same time, the company has initiated communications with the hackers in a bid to proactively seek a mutually agreeable resolution. While the incident implicates the loss of a substantial amount of funds, the firm maintains that in the context of the overall business, the sum represents only a small percentage of total assets under its management.Exchange security remains a major challenge in the crypto sector, with hacks happening on an ongoing basis. Last week, Seychelles-headquartered peer-to-peer crypto platform Remitano acknowledged a $2.7 million hack. At the beginning of September, crypto gambling platform Stake was reported to have suffered a $41 million hack.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jul 08, 2025

Hong Kong moves towards stablecoin licenses as Shenzhen warns of stablecoin scams

The Chinese autonomous territory of Hong Kong is moving closer towards the issuance of stablecoin licenses, while 30 kilometers away on the Chinese mainland, the authorities in Shenzhen are warning against stablecoin investment scams. Hong Kong has set Aug. 1 as the effective date for its incoming Stablecoin Ordinance. Firms such as JD.com and Ant Group, an affiliate company of Alibaba Group, are understood to be interested in seeking licensing. Photo by ダモ リ on UnsplashSingle-digit license issuanceIn a recent interview with Chinese language newspaper Ming Pao, Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, outlined that stablecoin licenses are likely to be issued in 2025 following the passing of the Aug. 1 effective date, although he indicated that the number of licenses issued will remain in single digits. Hui hopes that stablecoins can address some of “the difficulties and pain points in the real economy,” like cross-border payments involving volatile local currencies. The official said that stablecoins can reduce transaction costs and facilitate cross-border transactions when based on fiat currencies and serving as effective payment tools. Yuan-based stablecoinsHui stated that the issuance of a stablecoin in Hong Kong which is based on the sovereign currency of another jurisdiction would only be permitted following “discussions with the relevant authorities."  It’s understood that the aforementioned Chinese e-commerce firms have been lobbying government for the approval of offshore yuan-based stablecoins. Last month, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, acknowledged that stablecoins are disrupting global payments infrastructure. However, mainland China still has a mining and trading ban in place in relation to crypto, despite previous speculation that the country would open up to crypto. Hui expressed the view that where a stablecoin implicates another sovereign currency, there are additional risk factors that would have to be taken into account. Exploiting uninformed view of stablecoinsMeanwhile, 30 kilometers from Hong Kong, the authorities in Shenzhen have issued a warning to members of the public highlighting that scammers are exploiting the public’s uninformed view of stablecoins as a guise through which to lure victims into investment scams. They asserted that scammers are using new concepts, in this case stablecoins, for hype in an effort to peddle illegal fundraising, gambling, fraud and money laundering schemes.The Shenzhen Municipal Task Force Office for Preventing and Combating Illegal Financial Activities asked the public to report such schemes “engaged in illegal fundraising in the name of investing in stablecoins,” in order to enable the authorities to crack down on the illicit activity. The authorities added: "We urge the general public to remain rational in their investment decisions, avoid blindly trusting extravagant promises, develop a correct understanding of money and investment, stay alert to financial risks and avoid falling victim to scams." Last month, JD.com took to Weibo to warn the public that fraudulent JD stablecoins were being offered by scammers at a time when the company has yet to issue a stablecoin.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jul 21, 2023

Korea’s FSC Embarks on Developing Regulatory Framework for VASPs

Korea’s FSC Embarks on Developing Regulatory Framework for VASPsThe South Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) has taken a step towards the development of a virtual asset regulation system by seeking external parties to undertake a research project in this area, according to local news agency News1.Photo by Joshua Miranda on PexelsSecond phaseEarlier this month, the National Assembly passed the Virtual Asset User Protection Bill, aimed at protecting investors and preventing unfair trading practices. This legislative accomplishment, scheduled to go effective in July next year, is referred to as the “first phase” of virtual asset regulations. Building upon this foundation, the FSC has now shifted its focus to the “second phase,” which involves the regulation of virtual asset service providers (VASPs).Regulating VASP operationsOne primary concern regarding VASPs is the potential for conflicts of interest arising from their involvement in the issuance and distribution of virtual assets. In response, the FSC is determined to design a regulatory framework that covers a wide range of virtual assets, including stablecoins, security tokens, and utility tokens.In addition to this, the FSC intends to establish a system that governs advisory and disclosure businesses, which will play a crucial role in disseminating information about asset prices and disclosures.Moreover, the regulatory system will include guidelines for holding parties accountable in case of incidents and for overseeing the operations of VASPs to maintain a safe and fair market environment.The FSC acknowledges the significance of aligning policies with international standards. To achieve this, the commission will conduct an examination of virtual asset regulatory approaches taken by different countries and international organizations. Through this study, the FSC aims to integrate global best practices and approaches into Korea’s own regulatory framework for virtual assets.Once the study is complete, the FSC has to report the result to the National Policy Committee of the National Assembly by July 2024 before the Virtual Asset User Protection Bill goes into effect.

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