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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Policy & Regulation·

Oct 31, 2025

Bybit halts new user onboarding in Japan as regulators advance crypto rules

Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit said it will temporarily pause the onboarding of new users in Japan as it adjusts to regulatory changes under the country’s Financial Services Agency (FSA). In a statement released on Oct. 30, the company explained that the suspension is part of its effort to reassess compliance obligations and align with upcoming local standards. Starting Oct. 31 at 12:00 p.m. UTC, Bybit will no longer accept new account registrations from Japanese nationals or residents. The company added that the change will not affect existing customers, whose services will remain uninterrupted for now. The decision landed amid a shifting domestic policy backdrop. Policymakers at the FSA have been weighing the treatment of crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, viewing digital tokens through the lens of investment products. Officials have pointed to sharp price volatility and cyber-theft risks as reasons to strengthen safeguards for depositors and insured individuals.Photo by Cosmin Georgian on UnsplashBanks and insurers face ban on crypto salesAccording to an Asahi Shimbun report cited by Yonhap News, the FSA is set to prepare a draft framework that would bar banks and insurance companies from selling crypto directly, while permitting sales through brokerage firms. The draft was said to be slated for submission to the regular Diet session next year. In order to preserve a level competitive field, the authority plans to allow securities arms of banks and insurers to distribute tokens, given that online brokerages already offer crypto exposure. The same report suggested that banks and insurers could be allowed to hold and manage crypto assets once adequate risk management systems were in place. Market developments have continued alongside the policy work. Reuters reported that a yen-pegged stablecoin called JPYC launched on Oct. 27, issued by a company of the same name and backed by domestic savings and Japanese government bonds. An earlier Nikkei article had signaled that regulatory approval was expected, leaving timing as the main open question until the debut. Economic stimulus at odds with rate hike talkBroader macroeconomic policy has also been in focus for crypto investors. Some analysts have argued that an economic stimulus package announced by Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could channel fresh capital into markets and, by extension, provide a tailwind for Bitcoin. On social media platform X, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that additional government support for households and businesses might propel the largest cryptocurrency toward the $1 million mark. Monetary policy remains a counterweight. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% on Oct. 30, which led to a weaker yen and boosted demand for government bonds. According to Reuters, Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that wage trends would guide the next step, leaving open the possibility of a rate increase as early as December. Higher interest rates typically raise borrowing costs and can damp risk appetite, dynamics that often weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching how Japan’s evolving rulebook, fiscal support, and cautious monetary tightening intersect—and how that mix ultimately shapes crypto participation and pricing in one of Asia’s most closely observed markets. 

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Sep 16, 2025

SBI–Zodia venture to shut down amid Japan crypto regulatory hurdles

SBI Zodia Custody is discontinuing operations two years after its launch, Bloomberg reported. The joint venture was formed by Tokyo-based SBI Holdings and Zodia Custody, an institutional digital-asset platform backed by Standard Chartered, with ownership split 51% and 49% respectively.Photo by Haotian Zheng on UnsplashStrategic realignment behind exitAccording to people at the companies involved, the decision reflected shifting priorities at both partners. Zodia Custody chief executive Julian Sawyer described the move as a mutual alignment of strategy and said the company had prepared materials to seek local registration with Japan’s Financial Services Agency but had not filed an application before opting to exit. An SBI Holdings spokesperson said the dissolution did not signal a withdrawal from crypto custody or the company’s broader Asia strategy, describing the step instead as an effort to generate greater collective impact across SBI’s digital ecosystem. Security breaches shape regulatory climateThe retreat comes as overseas crypto businesses continue to face a cautious regulatory environment in Japan, a market shaped by several high-profile security breaches. Industry analyses have repeatedly noted that three of the largest crypto hacks targeted Japanese exchanges: Mt. Gox in 2014, Coincheck in 2018, and DMM Bitcoin in 2024. Mt. Gox lost about 850,000 BTC, now worth roughly $98 billion, and began making creditor repayments in July 2024 after years of legal proceedings. The repayment deadline was later extended to Oct. 31, 2025, and initial distributions totaled about 59,000 BTC, or just over 41% of the roughly 141,686 BTC earmarked for repayment, to an estimated 127,000 creditors. Coincheck’s 2018 breach involved what was then about $534 million in NEM tokens. Despite that episode, the company secured approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in November 2024 for a Nasdaq debut through a merger with Thunder Bridge. The transaction generated roughly $31.6 million in gross proceeds for the combined company. Moving forward, Coincheck is entering Europe through the acquisition of Aplo, a French-licensed digital asset brokerage. The most recent breach involved DMM Bitcoin, which had suspended operations after a May 2024 theft of more than 4,502.9 BTC. Its accounts and assets were transferred in March 2025 to SBI VC Trade, a cryptocurrency exchange owned by SBI Holdings, which said it would support 14 tokens previously listed on DMM that were not available on its own platform. Policy uncertainty as leadership shiftsAt the policy level, uncertainty is growing over Japan’s stance on crypto and blockchain following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Sept. 7 announcement that he will step down. Ishiba, who took office in October 2024, has advocated for digital assets, with his latest remarks delivered at the WebX2025 event. There, he pledged greater state support for Web3 initiatives, describing the sector as a driver of innovation that could help address demographic decline and support broader economic change. Last month, Finance Minister Katsunobu Katō, seen as a potential contender to succeed Ishiba, said cryptocurrency could play a role in a diversified investment portfolio, noting its growing user base in Japan. While recent surveys show Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi as the leading preferences for the next Liberal Democratic Party leader, Katō has emphasized the need to foster a stable trading environment for digital asset stakeholders, balancing investor protection with industry innovation. Within this policy climate, SBI Zodia Custody’s shutdown underscores the operational and licensing challenges facing foreign-linked crypto ventures in Japan. 

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Feb 19, 2024

Com2uS to sell Flashman NFTs on X-PLANET to raise funds for subway ad 

Com2uS Platform, a blockchain subsidiary of South Korean game company Com2uS Holdings, announced today that it will sell NFTs to fund subway advertisements celebrating the upcoming fan meeting of Choushinsei Flashman, a Japanese live-action superhero series produced by Toei Animation. This year marks the 35th anniversary of the show’s introduction to Korea. Photo by Choong Deng Xiang on UnsplashSpecial event for South Korean fansThis “Cosmo Sword NFTs” campaign has been launched by Com2uS Platform, backed by local fans’ voluntary participation and their enthusiasm towards the series. It has a special meaning for the fandom as it is the first time that the stars of Choushinsei Flashman are visiting Korea. The entire proceeds will be used to put advertisements on subway stations. This promotion is expected to attract a lot of fans as they can take selfies against the advertisement display or put paper notes containing messages for Flashman actors on the board.  Fan meeting to take place in April The Flashman fan meeting is planned to be held on April 20 at Sky Art Hall located in Gangseo-gu, Seoul. The event will feature seven actors and actresses from Flashman, including Tarumi Tota who starred as “Red Flash,” a main protagonist, and Hagiwara Sayoko who performed as the villain “Ray Nefel.” Participants will be able to enjoy on-site giveaway events and collective exhibitions.  Blockchain-enabled event tickets Fan-meeting NFT tickets can be exclusively purchased from X-PLANET, an NFT marketplace. VIP seats have already been sold out. The NFT tickets utilize blockchain technology which allows only ticket buyers to enjoy the show. They are resistant to forgery or counterfeiting since every process from purchasing to admission is recorded onchain, keeping scalpers at bay.  Run by Com2uS Platform, X-PLANET strives to showcase various artworks in the realms of games and K-pop to NFT enthusiasts in the global Web3 market. The platform is committed to producing high-quality NFT content in collaboration with skillful artists and various organizations.

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