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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Markets·

Aug 13, 2024

OSL Executive: Crypto ETFs have challenge to overcome in Hong Kong

At the Foresight 2024 Hong Kong Summit on Aug. 11, Gary Tiu, director and head of regulatory affairs for OSL, a crypto market custodian, exchange and prime brokerage, outlined in a panel discussion that the crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) market in the Chinese autonomous territory is challenged insofar as it lacks market incentives.Photo by Cecelia Chang on UnsplashThe intermediary problemTiu’s company hosted the event, alongside Foresight News and crypto publication The Block, who reported on Tiu’s comments. The OSL executive said that when it comes to funds and structured products in Hong Kong, there’s a “very rich layer of intermediaries— brokers, banks, private banks, retail banks, etc.” involved. Tiu explained that they make a lot of money from the distribution of such products, resulting in unlisted products being marketed far more effectively by comparison with listed products. It’s against that backdrop of misaligned incentives that Tiu identifies challenges for crypto ETFs on the public markets in Hong Kong. He stated: “So I think the incentive system in Hong Kong is one of the reasons why ETFs do have a bit of a hard time growing as a financial instrument.” In the case of ETFs, the OSL executive explained that equity brokers take just a few basis points in commission, only about 1-2% of what they make on the sale of structured products. Bias against Bitcoin and EtherTiu is also of the belief that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether have a reputational problem among Hong Kong’s investment community, stating: “I think there is still a bit of a bias in the eyes of the regulators and also in the eyes of the financial institutions, that somehow bitcoin ETF is just this unique class of risk that you need to be extra cautious about.” Chen Zhao, who heads up the digital assets section of Hong Kong-based independent financial advisory firm Fosun Wealth, chimed in with his own concerns. According to Zhao, the crypto ETF products currently marketed in Hong Kong are lacking in terms of the depth of dealers and brokers offering the products. Zhao explained that there are three main types of market participant active on the Hong Kong markets, namely western institutions, Hong Kong-based institutions and their counterparts from mainland China.  Zhao stated: “Chinese brokers and dealers, they’re not allowed or they choose not to deal with the product, and for the western financial institutions, they don’t have the necessity of dealing the products because they acquire more fees and incentives, and have easier access to the U.S. ETFs.” While progress is far more modest by comparison with the U.S. market, the Hong Kong crypto ETF market continues to develop, with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs setting a record trading volume last week. In the same week, Mox Bank, a subsidiary of British banking multinational Standard Chartered, launched trading services relative to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products in Hong Kong. Last month, OSL CEO Patrick Pan, anticipated that an Ethereum ETF product that incorporated staking would launch in Hong Kong within six months. Many commentators have suggested that institutional interest in Ethereum ETFs will begin in earnest once a yield-producing staking product hits the market.

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Policy & Regulation·

Sep 27, 2023

Upcoming Regulatory Framework in Taiwan Sees Crypto Exchanges Unite

Upcoming Regulatory Framework in Taiwan Sees Crypto Exchanges UniteIn preparation for the impending arrival of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in Taiwan, nine prominent cryptocurrency firms have announced their collective efforts to establish an industry association.The nine exchange businesses announced the development via a press release which was published on Tuesday. The move comes in anticipation of Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) releasing comprehensive guidelines on cryptocurrency trading and payments by the end of September.Photo by Timo Volz on UnsplashDeveloping regulatory environmentThe industry body will include participation from native exchanges such as MaiCoin, BitoGroup, and ACE. While Taiwan has been behind the regulatory curve until now where crypto is concerned, the one measure that the FSC had already taken steps to mandate was that virtual asset services providers (VASPs) in Taiwan must adhere to the country’s anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. However, numerous other intricacies unique to the cryptocurrency industry still require careful consideration and regulation.Authorities in Taiwan have also put forward ten guiding principles for VASPs, designed to protect Taiwanese consumers.The forthcoming guidelines aim to address these concerns by introducing a comprehensive set of rules inspired by the VASP licensing framework in Hong Kong. One of the primary focuses of these proposed guidelines is consumer protection. They advocate for specific hot and cold wallet ratios for customer deposits with cryptocurrency exchanges, a measure designed to safeguard customer funds. Additionally, the guidelines suggest mandatory insurance against user losses to further enhance consumer confidence.Moreover, the FSC’s guidelines intend to prevent offshore cryptocurrency exchanges from operating onshore in Taiwan without proper compliance registration. This step aims to ensure that all participants in Taiwan’s cryptocurrency market adhere to uniform standards.In a bid to stabilize the Taiwanese financial system and prevent deceptive advertising practices, the guidelines also propose a ban on stablecoins linked to the Taiwanese dollar and impose restrictions on foreign exchange advertising within the country.Enabling self-regulationRegulators have also proposed the classification of crypto regulations within their own novel business category. As part of that initiative, officials expressed an interest in fostering self-regulation. The formation of this industry group could be deemed to be an encouraging sign relative to that aspiration.The nine cryptocurrency firms forming the industry association have established a working group led by Winston Hsiao, Co-Founder of XREX. This group aims to expedite the development of self-regulatory rules based on the forthcoming FSC guidelines.Wayne Huang, another Co-Founder of XREX, expressed his hope that the new FSC guidelines will provide the cryptocurrency industry with legitimacy, oversight, a clear growth trajectory, and an accelerated path to earn public trust.The formation of this industry association, coupled with the impending release of the FSC’s comprehensive regulatory guidelines, marks a significant milestone for Taiwan’s cryptocurrency sector. As the industry evolves, these proactive measures seek to ensure its stability, security, and compliance with international standards.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Jan 29, 2024

Watch-to-Earn app fanC and Filipino exchange Coins.ph team up to expand globally

FanC – a South Korean blockchain reward project designed for creators and users of the Watch-to-Earn short-form video app CELEBe – has signed a business agreement with Coins.ph, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the Philippines. Through this agreement, the two companies aim to expand their respective global ecosystem through fanC’s rewards system, according to an article by local news outlet Daehan Kyungjae.Photo by Lance Anderson on UnsplashEmpowering creators and rewarding viewersThe CELEBe app aims to bring content creators and viewers together through Create-to-Earn and Watch-to-Earn mechanisms. The platform has notably collaborated with some 4,000 well-known figures, ranging from actors and singers to YouTubers and athletes. Connecting communitiesUnder the agreement, fanC's reward token (FANC) will be available for trading on Coins.ph, allowing fanC to deepen its roots not only in the Filipino market but also in the larger Asian blockchain community. "This agreement marks an important step in fanC's global expansion strategy," said Lee Dong-ho, CEO of fanC. "Through our collaboration with Coins.ph, we will build a stronger global network." Meanwhile, fanC plans to continue to strengthen its partnership with Coins.ph through activities like global meetings to lead the growth of its global fan community. The platform is thus committed to consistent technological development and innovation through collaborations with various global partners. Through these efforts, it aims to provide new value by building an ecosystem that connects the global blockchain community.

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