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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Policy & Regulation·

Nov 17, 2025

Japan Exchange Group weighs tougher scrutiny of crypto treasury firms

The Japan Exchange Group (JPX), operator of the Tokyo and Osaka stock exchanges, is considering measures to curb the expansion of publicly listed digital-asset treasury (DAT) firms, according to sources speaking to Bloomberg. JPX is reportedly exploring various regulatory avenues, ranging from tightening backdoor listing rules to mandating new audits for applicable firms. Following recent scrutiny from the exchange, three Japanese public companies have suspended their cryptocurrency purchase plans since September. These firms were reportedly warned that pursuing crypto investment as a core strategy could restrict their ability to raise future capital. While JPX currently lacks binding regulations explicitly prohibiting listed companies from accumulating digital assets, a representative stated that the exchange is monitoring firms with potential governance and risk issues to protect the interests of shareholders and investors.Photo by Su San Lee on UnsplashMetaplanet responds to regulatory concernsFollowing the Bloomberg report, Metaplanet, a Japanese public company that has adopted a Bitcoin accumulation strategy similar to that of the American firm Strategy, issued a clarifying statement. The firm asserted that it "has not been subject to any regulatory actions or investigations by relevant authorities concerning our business operations." Metaplanet emphasized its willingness to engage in constructive dialogue with regulators should any inquiries arise.According to BitcoinTreasuries.net data, Metaplanet is currently Japan’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder and ranks fourth globally among public companies, trailing only Strategy, MARA Holdings, and XXI. The extent of the firm’s commitment to this strategy was highlighted by Shinpei Okuno, Metaplanet’s Head of IR and Capital Strategy, who disclosed the company’s holdings via X. Balance sheet data as of September 30, 2025, reveals that Bitcoin accounts for 99% of Metaplanet’s total assets, 542.7 billion yen out of 550.7 billion yen. Okuno noted that the company aims to maintain a balance sheet structure that supports the issuance of digital credits collateralized by its crypto holdings. Market performance and sector outlookThe stock performance of DAT firms highlights the market's reaction to these risks. According to Yahoo Finance, Metaplanet’s share price has declined 40.29% over the past six months to 372 yen. This drop outpaces Bitcoin’s 8% decline over the same period. This downward pressure is visible across the broader DAT sector. Decrypt reported that Strategy's stock has fallen 50% from its July peak, while SharpLink, which invests in Ethereum, has dropped nearly 90%. Data from StrategyTracker indicates that the market-net-asset values (mNAVs) of these firms have slipped to near or below 1, reflecting depressed valuations. Analysts warn that low mNAVs complicate capital raising efforts, potentially forcing these firms to liquidate crypto holdings to cover operating expenses. At the same time, the analysts acknowledged possible tailwinds. Fakhul Miah, Managing Director at GoMining Institutional, told Decrypt that Bitcoin-oriented DATs generally outperform those investing in multiple, higher-risk crypto assets. He suggested that if U.S. economic data indicates easing inflation and the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, Bitcoin could rally. Yaroslav Patsira, Fractional Director at CEX.IO, echoed this sentiment, noting that the outlook for DATs is tied closely to Bitcoin’s potential upside. Taking a longer-term view, Decrypt noted that despite the recent pullback, crypto-related equities have shown strong year-to-date (YTD) performance relative to the underlying asset.Galaxy Digital is up 73.4% and SharpLink 43.2% YTD, compared to Bitcoin’s 8.6% gain, suggesting the current correction is taking place within a broader uptrend. Japanese stablecoin push faces U.S. resistanceBeyond the equity markets, Japanese crypto initiatives are also encountering regulatory friction in the U.S. Decrypt reported that a coalition of small U.S. banks has formally objected to a bid by Connectia Trust, a proposed subsidiary of Sony Bank, to issue dollar-backed stablecoins in the U.S. Sony Group’s banking arm recently applied to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust charter to facilitate these issuances. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) argues that the Japanese institution is attempting to exploit regulatory gaps to avoid the oversight applied to traditional banks, noting that Connectia’s stablecoin bears similarities to bank deposits. However, Kadan Stadelmann, CTO of Komodo Platform, offered a different view, telling Decrypt the concerns are “overstated and driven by big-bank interests.” 

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Policy & Regulation·

Apr 19, 2023

Korea’s DAXA Prohibits Relisting of Delisted Cryptos for a Year

Korea’s DAXA Prohibits Relisting of Delisted Cryptos for a YearThe Digital Asset Exchange Alliance (DAXA) in Korea will prohibit the relisting of cryptocurrencies delisted from its member exchanges for a year, according to Korean media outlet Edaily.©Pexels/Jan van der WolfDAXA’s arbitrary regulationSome criticize this regulation, arbitrarily created by DAXA, which consists of five major Korean cryptocurrency exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax), as this rule poses a significant impact on crypto issuers and investors.In fact, a blockchain industry insider said that when cryptos are designated by DAXA as a risky asset, their operators receive a notification from the group that relisting is possible after a year once delisted. So far, assets that have been delisted or designated as such are WEMIX, PCI, BASIC, SRM, and OMG.Coinone’s relisting of WEMIXDAXA added this stipulation, as it faced criticism for the absence of relisting regulations in its guidelines when Coinone, one of its members, exclusively relisted the WEMIX token. This raised doubts about the self-regulation of the industry because DAXA had decided the delisting of WEMIX on the grounds that the information on its circulation supply was unreliable.Crypto enterprises are complaining about DAXA’s devising of strict penalties when delisting processes are not transparent. DAXA has stated that a consensus has been reached for the first draft and it will be continuously revised.Stronger DAXA presenceThe Korean crypto industry forecasts that this regulation will empower DAXA’s presence in the crypto scene, considering that its members are responsible for 98% of the domestic trading volume.Experts note that DAXA needs to establish fairness and transparency in order for it to gain trust as a self-regulatory body. Park Yong-beom, Chairman of the Korea Society of Blockchain, said rules on listing and delisting have to be fair and transparent, and if market participants find them unconvincing, it would undermine the credibility and authority of the self-regulatory body.In an interview with Economic Review, Former KB Kookmin Bank CEO Lee Kun-ho suggested that DAXA should prioritize market vitalization and ecosystem strengthening. He believes that instead of focusing on market management and supervision, DAXA should concentrate on enhancing investor protection.

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Markets·

Feb 03, 2025

StashAway opens access to Fidelity crypto ETFs in Malaysia

StashAway Malaysia, a Malaysian Securities Commission (SC)-licensed digital investment platform, has extended its market offering to include crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within the Southeast Asian nation. Malaysian daily English language newspaper the Sun reported on Jan. 22 that StashAway will enable Malaysians to invest in two top-tier cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), through its regulated platform.Photo by Traxer on UnsplashFidelity productsThe company is providing its Malaysian clientele access to crypto investment products offered by American multinational financial services company Fidelity Investments. These include the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and the Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH). StashAway Malaysia Country Manager Wong Wai Ken explained the company’s rationale in adding the two products. He stated: “Many of our clients have expressed interest in the long-term potential of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin but have been hesitant because of security concerns or the complexities of navigating crypto exchanges. We’re now offering them a familiar and safe way to diversify their portfolios by incorporating crypto through a platform they already know and trust.” On a previous occasion, Wong told the Sun that its role is to help investors to diversify their portfolios. Adding access to cryptocurrency fits that objective. The StashAway executive believes that while there may be growing mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency, many investors are turned off gaining exposure due to the risks involved with self-custody or the fees and counterparty risk involved with cryptocurrency exchanges. StashAway charges management fees ranging from 0.2% to 0.8%. The Fidelity crypto ETF products will be offered with a 0.25% annual management fee.  Last June, Malaysian commercial bank Affin Bank became the first entity to offer a crypto ETF in Malaysia. The bank partnered with local fund management company Cross Light Capital to launch the actively managed digital asset fund. Titled the “Performa Digital Asset Fund,” the product incorporates investment in Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded products (ETPs), with the remaining third invested in blockchain-related equities. The approval of eleven Bitcoin ETFs in the United States led to greater consideration for the approval and addition of such products internationally. However, in the first few months following the launch of these products, regulators, exchange platforms and asset management firms still remained cautious.  In March of last year, Bursa Malaysia, Malaysia’s stock exchange, dismissed the notion of adding cryptocurrency to its multi-asset exchange. Within the region, regulators in Singapore and Thailand both dismissed the idea of enabling Bitcoin ETFs within their markets.  Since then, Thailand’s regulator has moved closer in its consideration of such a product offering. In the case of Malaysia, earlier this month, the country’s Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, called for stakeholders such as the central bank to focus on cryptocurrency so that the Southeast Asian nation doesn’t get left behind. StashAway is headquartered in Singapore. Besides Singapore and Malaysia, the company also serves investors in Thailand, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong. The digital platform has 50,000 users in Malaysia, where it serves retail and accredited investors. The company was the first robo-advisor platform to acquire a Capital Markets Services License from the SC in Malaysia.

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