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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Policy & Regulation·

Nov 20, 2025

Seoul launches global expansion program for fintech firms on XRP Ledger

The Seoul Metropolitan Government has launched a new initiative designed to help South Korean fintech firms expand into global markets. According to a Nov. 18 press release, the city and its blockchain partner, Catalyze Research, will utilize the XRP Ledger (XRPL), Ripple Labs’ public blockchain, to provide technology-focused mentorship and facilitate networking with overseas partners.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashFunding for global growthParticipating startups are eligible to receive up to $200,000 each, with the total funding pool capped at $1.8 million. The Seoul government anticipates that this initiative will assist early-stage ventures in establishing a meaningful presence in the global marketplace. Selected participants will receive mentorship from Catalyze Research on entering the blockchain ecosystem via the XRP Ledger, refining business models, and developing multichain strategies. The program is open to applicants working in a variety of specific sectors, including blockchain payments, asset tokenization, cross-border transfers, decentralized identifiers (DIDs), decentralized finance (DeFi), and regulatory technology. Beyond the core business training, Seoul is offering technical workshops that allow participants to explore complex topics such as XRPL-based issuance, liquidity configuration, fee optimization, and security architecture in greater depth. Follow-up support programs will continue to assist participating ventures after the initial phase, offering help with investor relations and jurisdiction-specific regulatory consulting. Pilot projects with overseas partners are also planned to further support company growth. The capital’s move to back crypto ventures follows its recognition in the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), produced annually by the London-based think tank Z/Yen and the China Development Institute (CDI). In the latest report released in September, Seoul ranked eighth in fintech among 135 cities. Price swings amid XRP ETF debutsWhile the city pushes to grow the country’s blockchain sector, XRP, the native asset of the XRP Ledger, has faced market headwinds. According to CoinMarketCap data, the token’s price dropped more than 15% over the past week amid a broader market downturn. This decline came even after the Nov. 14 launch of XRPC, a Canary Capital–managed ETF that is the first in the U.S. to track the spot price of XRP. Subsequently, the Bitwise XRP ETF is also set to debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 20. Amid the recent price weakness, XRP’s retail positioning offers a more nuanced backdrop. Glassnode’s Nov. 19 update estimates the average retail cost basis for the token at roughly $2.17, putting the typical holder about 61% in profit. The firm’s analysis a day earlier showed, at the network-wide level, 58.5% of the total supply in profit and 41.5% held at a loss—a structure that the firm said reflected a market dominated by recent buyers and prone to volatility.

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Policy & Regulation·

Oct 14, 2023

Terraform Labs Accuses Citadel Securities of Stablecoin Sabotage

Terraform Labs Accuses Citadel Securities of Stablecoin SabotageTerraform Labs, the bankrupt Singaporean blockchain firm, is pointing fingers at American market maker Citadel Securities, alleging that it played a role in an orchestrated effort to destabilize Terraform’s TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin back in May 2022.In its pursuit of justice, Terraform Labs has now called upon the United States District Court in the Southern District of Florida to compel Citadel Securities to furnish vital documents concerning their trading activities during that critical period, when the stablecoin underwent a depegging crisis, now referred to as TerraUSD Classic (USTC).Photo by Tingey Injury Law Firm on UnsplashAllegations of intentional destabilizationThat’s according to a motion filed by Terraform in the United States District Court in the Southern District of Florida, earlier this week. As alleged by Terraform Labs, the catastrophic depegging event in May 2022, which saw UST plummet from $1 to a mere $0.02, was not solely due to inherent instability in the algorithm supporting the UST stablecoin. Instead, the firm contends that it was a result of the deliberate and collaborative actions of specific third-party market participants who engaged in “shorting” to trigger the depegging.Terraform stated in its motion:“Movant [Terraform] contends that the market destabilization that occurred did not result from instability in the algorithm underlying the UST stablecoin. Instead, Movant contends that the market was destabilized due to the concerted, intentional effort of certain third party market participants to ‘short’ and cause UST to depeg from its one dollar price.”The motion also alludes to “publicly available evidence” hinting at Citadel’s intention to short the stablecoin at the time of the depegging event. In particular, it references a Discord channel chat screenshot where a pseudonymous trader purportedly had a conversation with Citadel head Ken Griffin. Griffin allegedly remarked:“They were going to Soros the f*** out of Luna UST,” seemingly drawing a connection to George Soros’ trading strategies, which often involve highly leveraged, one-way bets.Citadel refuted allegations previouslyNotably, Citadel Securities has previously refuted allegations of trading the TerraUSD stablecoin in May 2022, according to Forbes.In its motion, Terraform refers to the importance of these documents for its defense in a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in February. The SEC lawsuit alleges that Terraform Labs and its founder, Do Kwon, played a significant role in orchestrating a multi-billion dollar cryptocurrency securities fraud.The motion concludes with Terraform arguing that its defense would be substantially hampered if Citadel Securities were to successfully withhold the requested information. In the event that the court fails to compel Citadel, Terraform has requested that the matter be transferred to the US District Court for the Southern District of New York.The matter has been the subject of debate within the crypto community in recent months. In May a community member stated:“As I’ve been saying. People blamed Citadel et al. This was nothing but a rug pull. Wake up. Do Kwon says the dissolving of Terraform Labs in Korea days before the $LUNA and $UST crash is ‘purely coincidental.’”With the matter now being raised in the courts, it looks like the legal system will be the final adjudicator regarding the issue.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Jul 19, 2023

Polymesh’s APAC Digital Asset Regulation Report Highlights Challenges

Polymesh’s APAC Digital Asset Regulation Report Highlights ChallengesThe project team behind Polymesh, an institutional-grade permissioned blockchain built specifically for regulated assets, released a report on digital asset regulation within the Asia Pacific (APAC) region on Tuesday, highlighting several challenges that regulators are attempting to overcome.In a press release, the company outlined that the report covers recent regulatory developments in South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the broader APAC region.Photo by Jéan Béller on UnsplashProgressive regulatory effortsRegulators within the APAC region are currently striving to introduce legislation for digital assets, while several centers within the region are vying to establish themselves as hubs for digital asset-related business.The report explores the individual efforts of regulators in various APAC nations as they work towards crafting regulatory frameworks tailored to their jurisdictions. Those efforts encompass implementation, investigation, and enforcement of legislation in a borderless industry.Regulators in South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong have all embarked on formulating rules for emerging asset categories, albeit using different terminologies such as “digital assets,” “digital payment tokens,” and “virtual assets.” Their focus lies in striking a balance between consumer protection, market integrity, and industry development.Additionally, all three regulators adhere to the principle of “same activity, same regulations, same risks” when it comes to tokenized securities. They argue that regulatory requirements do not significantly differ solely because a security is in tokenized form. Each state has been actively engaged in local and global activities surrounding security tokens, including state involvement in the advancement of security token technology and cross-border transactions.Main findingsThe report’s main findings emphasize that while regulators in the APAC region are making strides in introducing digital asset legislation, the road ahead will not be without challenges.Legislating a cross-border industry poses difficulties that necessitate harmonization to foster a robust and interconnected ecosystem. Digital assets originating in Asia can be traded globally and vice versa. Merely identifying the asset’s place of origin is no longer sufficient.Although the report delves into the efforts of individual regulators, it emphasizes the need for long-term collaboration to establish a unified vision and practical implementation of regulations for this borderless phenomenon.Regulatory challengesThe regulatory challenges faced by South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong in driving the growth of digital assets in the APAC region are multifaceted. They include the intricacies of legislating an inherently cross-border industry. In turn, that can lead to the potential violation of legislation from other jurisdictions.The lack of harmonization among different jurisdictions, and variations in regulatory approaches among the three regulators are likely to be problematic. Furthermore, there are push-pull dynamics between the industry and regulators, with even the regulators themselves not always in agreement.However, despite these challenges, all three regulators have initiated the formulation of rules for new asset categories, with a strong emphasis on safeguarding consumer interests, maintaining market integrity, and fostering industry development.

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