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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on Unsplash

ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Policy & Regulation·

Mar 27, 2025

Asia Web3 Alliance Japan seeks collaboration with U.S. SEC

The Asia Web3 Alliance Japan, an agency that regards itself as a bridge between the Web3 ecosystem in Asia and Japan’s broader business sector, has reached out to the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States with a view towards establishing a strategic collaboration.Photo by Clement Souchet on UnsplashFocus on Web3 regulatory innovation & tokenizationThe President of the organization, Hinza Asif, wrote to SEC Crypto Task Force Chairperson and SEC Commissioner, Hester Peirce, on the subject, on March 25. The letter, subsequently published by the SEC, sets out a proposal that centers on a strategic U.S.-Japan partnership relative to Web3 regulatory innovation and tokenization. The Japanese agency, which has set out cross-border synergy as one of its objectives, calls for collaboration between Japan’s Financial Services Agency, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Bank of Japan with the U.S. regulator. The Alliance proposes that the goal of that partnership would be the establishment of regulatory clarity in respect of the Web3 sector, together with the fostering of interoperability between a developing Web3 ecosystem in the U.S. and the one that’s developing in Japan. Token classification frameworkDelving deeper into proposal specifics, Asif sets out the formation of a harmonized token classification framework as a key objective. The proposal suggests that a distinction needs to be made between tokenized securities, utility tokens and non-security digital assets.  The alliance believes that right now, token classification is unclear, with projects struggling to understand what category their token falls within from a regulatory perspective. There’s a lack of token offering frameworks. While it sees that further work is required, the Asia Web3 Alliance Japan is encouraged by progress made by the SEC’s Crypto Task Force in identifying security categories. With this cross-border collaboration, the Japanese crypto advocacy group believes that there is an opportunity to achieve regulatory interoperability on an international basis. That would facilitate compliant cross-border token issuance. On that basis, the alliance suggests that standards be developed such that regulatory consistency is achieved internationally when it comes to items such as digital asset trading, custody and token issuance. The proposal sets out a need for reciprocal disclosure requirements between the two jurisdictions where cross-border token issuance is concerned. It advocates for mutual recognition of what it terms “compliant tokenized offerings.” Bringing safe harbor to JapanAnother focus area contained within the proposal is the suggestion of a need to implement a safe harbor approach in Japan for early-stage token projects in line with what has been put forward in the U.S. Peirce first put forward a token safe harbor proposal in the U.S. in 2020. It sets out to provide exemptions over a defined initial period for certain token issuances. The idea behind it is to enable these early-stage projects to innovate and mature without getting bogged down in a regulatory quagmire. The establishment of a U.S.-Japan Web3 regulatory roundtable is another strand contained within the proposal. This would provide a mechanism for ongoing dialogue between stakeholders such as regulators, industry leaders and legal experts.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Jan 30, 2024

BitBunny app offers users Bitcoin rewards for walking

BitBunny, a South Korean mobile app that distributes rewards based on walking activity, now offers rewards in the form of Bitcoin, according to an article by local news outlet TechM on Tuesday (KST).Photo by Thom Milkovic on UnsplashUnlocking rewardsBitBunny allows users to earn Bitcoin by completing missions like walking, checking daily attendance, inviting other friends to use the app, watching advertisements and participating in quizzes and games. Last Friday, the app added a new feature called "Catch the Bunny," a game where users can earn up to 10,000 points, or “coins”. These coins can either be used as cash when exchanged for vouchers – which can be used at various brands like Starbucks or Burger King – or invested in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Dogecoin. Due to these features, the app surpassed 100,000 users within just three months of release. BitBunny's vision"BitBunny's growth is an example of how mobile app technology and crypto are converging in everyday life, creating new user experiences," said Lee Kyung-tae, Team Lead at BitBunny. "We will continue to try different things to keep users interested and engaged." With a commitment to experimentation and user engagement, BitBunny is poised to redefine the way that users interact with both mobile apps and cryptocurrencies, offering a glimpse into a more integrated and rewarding digital future.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Jul 05, 2023

3AC Founders Vow to Donate Future Earnings

3AC Founders Vow to Donate Future EarningsThe co-founders of the Singapore-headquartered bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) have publicly committed to donating their “future earnings” to creditors who suffered losses during the fund’s dramatic collapse.Kyle Davies and Su Zhu made this groundbreaking announcement during a candid Twitter Spaces session hosted by Mario Nafwal, aiming to establish a “shadow recovery process” parallel to the ongoing liquidation proceedings.Photo by Josh Appel on UnsplashBelieving in karmaDavies explained that their intended donations would be separate from the formal recovery process, designed to supplement any reimbursements that creditors might receive through the liquidation proceedings. While acknowledging that some early creditors have already been made whole, he emphasized the founders’ unwavering belief in the concept of “karma.”They see their act of giving back as a way to balance the scales and provide an avenue for creditors to potentially recover their losses.Creditor skepticismHowever, these noble intentions expressed by Davies and Zhu have been met with skepticism from the crypto community and the very creditors they seek to assist. Teneo, the liquidator overseeing the 3AC liquidation, responded to Davies’ comments by expressing disappointment in the founders’ lack of cooperation during the ongoing process. They stressed that the founders should prioritize engaging in the court-ordered activities rather than making promises about future earnings from a new venture.Acknowledging concerns about optics, Davies addressed questions surrounding the launch of their new crypto exchange, Open Exchange (OPNX), while their previous company undergoes liquidation. He stressed the inherent connection between OPNX and the creditors, suggesting that the success of their new entrepreneurial endeavor would ultimately benefit those affected by the collapse of Three Arrows Capital.OPNX success requiredOPNX, the newly launched Dubai-based trading platform, is specifically designed to facilitate the trading of bankruptcy claims. Since its announcement in February, the platform has garnered significant attention, boasting an impressive user base of 20 million individuals holding a collective $20 billion in claims. It is worth noting that the collapse of Three Arrows Capital resulted in the loss of $2.5 billion in customer deposits, making the success of OPNX crucial for creditors seeking redress.Davies also revealed that OPNX currently records approximately $50 million in daily trading volume, showcasing promising early traction for the platform. However, the exact mechanics of the “shadow recovery process” were left unspecified.While OPNX currently only facilitates the trading of claims from lender Celsius, the platform has ambitious plans to include claims from other high-profile bankruptcies in the near future. The list of potential additions encompasses notable entities such as FTX, Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager, Hodlnaut, Mt. Gox, Vauld, Zipmex, and even Three Arrows Capital itself.When taken at face value, the founders’ pledge to donate future earnings to creditors takes on the appearance of a significant and commendable gesture. However, doubts persist within the crypto community due to the founders’ prior actions and the ongoing liquidation process. Only time will reveal the true impact of this “shadow recovery process” and whether it will genuinely alleviate the losses suffered by creditors in the wake of Three Arrows Capital’s collapse.

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