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Crypto’s four-year cycle may matter less amid shifting macro forces, report says

Markets·January 08, 2026, 6:23 AM

Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle tied to halving events may be losing influence, according to a new outlook from crypto exchange Bybit and research firm Block Scholes that examines market conditions through 2026.

 

The report suggests that Bitcoin price action may be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure rather than by new supply reductions. It says historical cycles have tended to track changes in global liquidity, often measured by global M2, and that this relationship has become more visible, while Bitcoin continues to respond to shifts in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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ETFs reshaping demand dynamics

The analysis points to structural changes in demand, citing the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the growth of corporate digital asset treasuries (DATs). The report says ETF flows and corporate balance-sheet allocations are playing a larger role in price formation than retail trading.

 

That shift is disrupting the traditional capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then into smaller altcoins and memecoins. As a result, the report suggests broad altcoin rallies may be harder to ignite, with gains depending on whether assets can be incorporated into institutional products such as ETFs.

 

On the macro front, the report says markets are pricing in further Federal Reserve easing, with looser financial conditions potentially supporting a closer relationship between Bitcoin and major stock indexes despite recent underperformance versus U.S. equities.

 

Based on options pricing, the report estimates a 10.3% implied probability that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. At present, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $91,000.

 

Index criteria and Japan policy in view

The analysis also highlights policy risks, including potential volatility tied to concerns over the possible exclusion of Strategy from major stock indexes, which could affect companies holding digital assets on their balance sheets. That risk has since eased after MSCI paused a proposal that would have excluded firms with digital asset reserves, though Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer cautioned that the issue could resurface in future rule reviews.

 

The Bybit-Block Scholes report also cites potential policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year as another source of cross-asset risk, following its December rate hike of 25 basis points to a 30-year high of 0.75%.

 

RWA and stablecoins

One area of focus in the report for 2026 is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which it describes as building on the stablecoin adoption that gathered pace last year.

 

That view is echoed in a separate outlook from Moody’s, cited by Cointelegraph, which says fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits are functioning as “digital cash” for settlement, liquidity management, and collateral movement. Moody’s estimates stablecoins processed about $9 trillion in on-chain settlement volume in 2025 and projects banks, asset managers, and infrastructure providers could invest more than $300 billion in digital finance by 2030.

 

As an example, Moody’s cited JPMorgan’s U.S. dollar–denominated deposit token, JPM Coin, as a way digital-cash layers can operate on top of existing banking systems. The bank’s Kinexys unit plans to work with Digital Asset to bring JPM Coin to Digital Asset’s Canton Network in a phased rollout during 2026. This follows JPMorgan’s expansion of the project onto Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network Base for institutional clients.

 

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Mar 30, 2026

South Korea's crypto market cap shrinks 8% in H2 2025

The market capitalization of South Korea's cryptocurrency market stood at 87.2 trillion won ($57.4 billion) at the end of last year, marking an 8% decline from 95.1 trillion won ($62.6 billion) at the end of June 2025.  A survey released on March 25 by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), covering 27 virtual asset service providers, found that the number of listed crypto assets in Korea rose to 712 at year-end—up 9% (59 assets) from 653 in June.Photo by Daniel Bernard on UnsplashTrading activity declines, listings increaseAverage daily trading volume on won-denominated crypto exchanges fell 15% to 5.4 trillion won ($3.6 billion), from 6.4 trillion won in the first half of 2025. New listings rose 10% to 227, while delistings jumped 50% to 54, including cases where the same coin was delisted from multiple platforms. The average transaction fee rate stood at 0.16%. Operating profit at the exchanges fell 38% to 395.8 billion won ($261 million), down from 635.2 billion won ($418 million) in the first half. Data on retail investors show that men in their 30s remain the largest group of crypto users in South Korea, with 2 million accounts. Overall, 74.2% of the country’s 11.13 million accounts—equivalent to 8.26 million users—held less than 1 million won (about $660) in digital assets. Only 10% (1.12 million accounts) held 10 million won ($6,600) or more, while just 1.5% (170,000 accounts) held over 100 million won ($65,800). By age group, users in their 30s and 40s each accounted for 27%. They were followed by those in their 50s (19%), under-30s (19%), and users aged 60 and older (9%). Survey shows investors remain waryRecent survey data points to cautious sentiment among retail investors. In a weekly survey of Korean investors conducted last week by CoinNess and Cratos, 36.9% of respondents reported “fear” or “extreme fear,” compared with 30.8% who were neutral and 32.3% who were optimistic. Despite the overall caution, short-term sentiment turned slightly more optimistic. The survey found that 38.3% of respondents expect Bitcoin to rise this week, up from 35.6% the previous week. Those expecting prices to move sideways accounted for 22.5% (down from 23.1%), while 39.2% expect a decline (down from 41.3%). With macroeconomic uncertainty rising and speculation growing over a possible April rate hike by the Federal Reserve, respondents were split on how monetary policy would affect digital assets. When asked about the Fed’s rate outlook for the year, the largest share (30.3%) said Bitcoin would rise regardless of interest rates. Another 26.5% expected rates to remain unchanged, 19.9% expected a cut, and 12.4% a hike. The remaining 10.9% said Bitcoin would fall regardless of rate decisions. 

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Markets·

May 16, 2025

Tokyo's Relic launches fan-driven anime project using NFT and blockchain

Relic, a Tokyo-based provider of business co-creation services, has launched a fan-driven short anime project using NFT and blockchain technology in collaboration with MetaMe, a metacommunication service developed by mobile carrier NTT Docomo.Photo by Dex Ezekiel on UnsplashFan empowerment through DAO and NFTsAccording to a press release on PR TIMES, the project, set to officially launch on June 19, 2025, aims to be accessible even to newcomers to NFTs or Web3. It will strive to ensure sustainability through transparent fund management and community-driven decision-making. The project introduces a new anime production model called "Anime DAO," starting with a near-future anime set in Neo Tokyo in 2050 that features characters and the world of the popular NFT collection "NEO TOKYO PUNKS." Funding will be raised through crowdfunding and the sale of celluloid art NFTs. Supporters will have the opportunity to vote on production decisions and own iconic scene NFTs once the anime is completed. The finished anime will premiere on MetaMe, followed by exclusive streaming on d-anime Store, while also integrating with the blockchain game GT6551, where fans can use anime characters and vehicles. This cross-media project combines anime, NFTs and e-sports, enhancing both fan engagement and user experience. Growing blockchain adoption in animeThis further demonstrates how the animation industry is embracing blockchain technology. In January, the Animecoin Foundation—whose early key contributors include Los Angeles-based NFT project Azuki—introduced the ANIME token on Ethereum and Arbitrum. Its tokenomics indicate a total supply of 10 billion tokens. The Foundation aims to connect the global anime fan base to blockchain, enabling creators to gain clearer insights into fan engagement and attribution, potentially unlocking new revenue models to support their intellectual property (IP). Although established in March 2024, the Animecoin Foundation traces its origins to Azuki’s mission of building an open anime universe. Azuki focuses on using blockchain technology and community involvement to develop decentralized anime IP and enrich the fan experience.  In a separate development, South Korea’s blockchain gaming platform WEMIX inked a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Japan’s Toei Animation late last year. Known for producing iconic titles such as Dragon Ball, One Piece and Slam Dunk, Toei Animation brings its storytelling and IP expertise, while WEMIX provides blockchain technology. The partnership aims to create an innovative blockchain-based gaming experience for a global audience.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Sep 05, 2023

OKX Enters Final Stages of Securing VASP License in Hong Kong

OKX Enters Final Stages of Securing VASP License in Hong KongSeychelles-headquartered cryptocurrency exchange OKX is on the verge of securing its virtual asset service provider (VASP) license in Hong Kong, with approval expected as early as June 2024.That’s according to Li Zhikai, OKX’s Global Chief Commercial Officer, who, in a recent interview with Infocast, shed light on the exchange’s preparations, including collaborations with banks and other related technological integrations.Photo by Simon Zhu on UnsplashThe Road to a VASP LicenseObtaining a VASP license in Hong Kong is no easy feat. Regulatory requirements impose a 30% cap on investors’ crypto investments, ensuring they do not risk more than one-third of their net income.Furthermore, the Hong Kong regulator has implemented stringent crypto asset storage protocols, mandating that crypto exchanges securely store 98% of their crypto assets in cold wallets. Additionally, they must provide insurance and compensation arrangements to protect clients’ interests.Cost has been another issue. In June it emerged that Web3 businesses have been shelling out anywhere between 20 million and 200 million Hong Kong dollars ($2.55 million and $25.5 million) in order to see out the licensing application process.Alongside these licensing difficulties, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a warning last month aimed at unregistered crypto businesses engaging in “improper practices” within the Chinese autonomous territory.OKX’s remarkable growthWith OKX having reported growth within the Hong Kong market earlier this year, pointing to the onboarding of over 10,000 new users in just one month, it’s likely that licensing is both worthwhile and necessary for the firm despite the difficulties in obtaining it. In March the exchange established OKX Hong Kong, a local entity, with the primary objective of securing a VASP license and operating as a virtual asset trading platform within the city.Hong Kong’s decision to open its doors to retail investors as of June 1 generated significant interest, with more than 80 foreign and Mainland China-based crypto companies expressing their intent to establish a presence in Hong Kong and obtain local licenses. Among these firms are Gate.io, Huobi, CoinEx, and Interactive Brokers.Expanding global reachNotably, OKX has been actively acquiring licenses in various jurisdictions worldwide as part of its strategic expansion plan. The exchange secured a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) license from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) in June. This licensing milestone followed the establishment of a new office at the Dubai World Trade Center by OKX.Before venturing into the Middle East, OKX took steps to obtain a French digital asset service provider (DASP) license in May, aiming to position France as its regional hub in Europe. To facilitate this, OKX established a local subsidiary, OKX France. The application and registration process with the French regulator is expected to enable OKX to operate in full compliance with European regulations.Hong Kong embarked on its journey to become a crypto-friendly jurisdiction over the course of the past 12 months, but particularly so when it unveiled its licensing framework for cryptocurrency exchanges catering to retail customers earlier this year. However, only a handful of platforms, such as HashKey and OSL, managed to secure licenses for offering retail crypto trading services. Others, including Huobi and Gate.io, are still awaiting that regulatory nod.

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