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NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTCThe network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.©Pexels/PixabayPrice and NVT ratio correlationYonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.BTC price recoveryWhen the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.Uncertain outlookThe NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.

In the immediate aftermath of the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States earlier this week, a Hong Kong legislator has spoken out to encourage a proactive response within the Chinese autonomous territory, while asset managers appear to be responding accordingly.Photo by Simon Zhu on UnsplashCompetitive responseLawmaker Johnny Ng has called on the local government to swiftly embrace the recent ETF approval in the United States. In a post on X, Ng emphasized the need for Hong Kong to proactively lead the way in the cryptocurrency space, fostering innovation to secure a global position amidst intense competition. Ng highlighted the Securities and Futures Commission's (SFC) previous expression of readiness to accept applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. He urged Hong Kong to capitalize on the rapidly evolving virtual asset sector, implementing policies and products that position the city as a global hub for virtual assets. "This presents an opportunity to solidify Hong Kong’s position as a global hub for virtual assets," Ng stated, emphasizing the importance of seizing this moment in the market's development. In December, Hong Kong's regulatory bodies, the SFC and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), reviewed their existing policies, releasing circulars that outlined the requirements for spot crypto ETFs. Fund managers explore ETFsHashKey, a licensed crypto exchange in Hong Kong, confirmed its potential participation in spot crypto ETFs through engaging in crypto transactions associated with ETFs and providing crypto custody services. The company, which obtained a license from the SFC to offer retail crypto trading services in August, positions itself to play a pivotal role in the emerging market. Livio Weng, COO of the Hong Kong-based crypto exchange, revealed that approximately ten fund managers, backed by Chinese capital and others from Asia and Europe, are exploring the launch of spot crypto ETFs in Hong Kong. Weng, in an interview with Chinese financial news media Caixin, disclosed that seven or eight of these fund managers have already been in contact with the SFC, forming teams to design investment products. Highlighting the importance of education in the crypto space, Ng called on the Hong Kong government to prioritize public education. He stressed the need to increase awareness of virtual assets among the public while simultaneously reducing opportunities for illicit activities involving digital assets. Substantial impactIn an interview earlier this week, Yat Siu, the co-founder of Hong Kong-based crypto venture capital and game software firm Animoca Brands, expressed the view that the spot bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. would have a more substantial impact on the overall development of crypto in Asia. As Hong Kong prepares to pave the way for spot crypto ETFs, the SFC and the HKMA have already reviewed existing policies, outlining the requirements for such investment products. The December circular from the SFC emphasized that transactions involving spot crypto ETFs should occur through licensed crypto platforms or authorized financial institutions, ensuring regulatory compliance in the growing crypto market. 

Terraform Labs Co-Founder Daniel Shin Denies Wrongdoing in LUNA CollapseShin Hyun-seong, popularly known as Daniel Shin, has refuted accusations against him related to the $40 billion collapse of the stablecoin TerraUSD and its companion token, LUNA, according to a report by local news outlet Newspim. He presented this defense during his initial trial at the Seoul Southern District Court on October 30 (local time).Shin co-founded Terraform Labs, the company responsible for issuing TerraUSD and LUNA. His co-founder, Do Kwon, is currently serving a four-month prison sentence in Montenegro for passport forgery.Photo by Tingey Injury Law Firm on UnsplashProsecution’s allegationsKorean prosecutors allege that since 2018, Shin and his colleagues have concealed the fabricated nature of the “Terra project.” By manipulating trades and releasing misleading information, they purportedly misled investors into thinking the project was successful. It’s believed they sold off their tokens before the LUNA crash in May 2022, earning KRW 462.9 billion ($343.3 million) from these activities. They are suspected of personally taking KRW 376.9 billion from this amount.Prosecutors are focusing on Shin as the potential orchestrator of the LUNA crash. They speculate he began selling LUNA tokens around when Terraform Labs launched the Anchor Protocol in March 2021. This DeFi protocol increased the popularity and value of LUNA tokens. Before the crash, Shin is alleged to have gained at least KRW 154.1 billion.Defense argumentHowever, Shin’s legal team countered by asserting that Shin had cut ties with Kwon in 2020. They argued the decline of TerraUSD and LUNA was due to Kwon’s mishandling of the Anchor Protocol and an external attack, neither associated with Shin. Regarding the exploit, Terraform Labs has pursued legal action in the United States Southern District of Florida, claiming that American market maker Citadel Securities played a part in undermining TerraUSD in May 2022.Defending Shin, his lawyers emphasized that at the inception of the Terra project, there were no legal guidelines specifically for cryptocurrency transactions. Additionally, unlike Do Kwon who kept fleeing abroad, Shin willingly came back to Korea and has been cooperating with the investigation. They also noted he received only 32% of the 70 million LUNA tokens initially promised. Regarding classification, they stated LUNA isn’t legally recognized as a security.Shin’s lawyers further argued the prosecution hasn’t clearly identified victims or adequately outlined the components of fraud in this case. They said the prosecution’s case hinges on viewing LUNA as a security. However, Shin’s legal representatives maintained that under the Korean Capital Markets Act, LUNA isn’t a security, making its trades non-fraudulent.To counter a US court ruling the prosecution presented — that a token is a security — Shin’s defense highlighted that the verdict is from a lower court and remains contested. Earlier, prosecutors had cited a ruling from the United States Southern District Court of New York, which classified the XRP tokens sold to institutional investors as securities.