Bitcoin pullback tests sentiment as analysts revisit long-term targets
Despite Bitcoin’s recent decline, a South Korean analyst says investors’ trust in the market remains intact. He added that a U.S. crypto market structure bill, which Congress could approve as early as December, may give investors a chance to buy the dip ahead of a potential rebound. According to Etoday, Hong Sung-wook of NH Investment & Securities, one of South Korea’s major brokerage firms, noted that the crypto market has given back all gains made since mid-October, with Bitcoin briefly slipping below $100,000. Most altcoins also saw steep declines, erasing the advances they posted following roughly $19 billion in liquidations around Oct. 10. In this environment, Solana’s year-to-date performance has turned negative despite the recent launch of spot Solana ETFs in Hong Kong and the U.S., while Ethereum has similarly surrendered its earlier gains.Photo by Michael Förtsch on UnsplashContext from past declinesHong framed the latest pullback in a historical context. Since 2018, Bitcoin has recorded a daily closing price drop of more than 20% on seven occasions. The latest decline of about 21% from peak to trough, he said, is broadly in line with previous downturns. He added that Bitcoin is now less likely to experience the extreme volatility seen in earlier years, citing growing institutional participation and its increasing use in so-called “debasement trades,” or hedges against fiat currency inflation. Building on this, Hong attributed the recent weakness primarily to the liquidation wave and the temporary hit to sentiment. However, he argued that confidence could recover faster than in past stress events, emphasizing that trust in the market has not been fundamentally damaged, unlike in prior downturns triggered by unexpected “black swan” shocks. Policy progress could lift market moodIn the near term, Hong pointed to progress on the U.S. crypto market structure bill as a potential catalyst. Further movement on the bill, he said, could help improve sentiment, similar to the supportive reaction seen around the passage of the stablecoin GENIUS Act. Other market observers have expressed a comparable view on Bitcoin’s outlook. BeInCrypto underscored three key factors supporting its stance in an analysis published on FXStreet. First, citing Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score, it noted that Bitcoin has managed to hold above the $100,000 level thanks to a balance between whale sell-offs and continued accumulation by other investors. Second, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts projected for December are seen as another supportive element. Third, Bitcoin continues to trade above its 50-week moving average (WMA), a technical level that has underpinned the market since BTC moved above it in 2023; even when brief sell-offs have pushed prices below this line, buyers have stepped in to restore it by the weekly close. Warning signs of weakening momentumAt the same time, signals of moderating momentum have emerged. Another BeInCrypto report pointed to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score, an on-chain metric that gauges the asset’s upside potential, which fell to zero on Nov. 6, its lowest level since January 2022, just before the market entered its last major bearish phase. This more cautious tone is reflected in institutional forecasts as well. Crypto financial services firm Galaxy Digital last week lowered its year-end price target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000. The firm cited heavy whale sell-offs, shifting investor focus toward AI, gold, and stablecoins, and the weak performance of Bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury (DAT) companies as key reasons for its downgrade. Even so, Galaxy Digital said it continues to view Bitcoin as a structurally strong asset.From a longer-term perspective, some high-profile experts have also trimmed their expectations. According to Decrypt, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood told CNBC she now sees Bitcoin reaching about $1.2 million in a bullish scenario by 2030, down from her previous $1.5 million target. She attributed the revision mainly to the rapid growth of stablecoins, which are expanding faster than Bitcoin and emerging as a new payment method, a trend she suggested could dilute some of Bitcoin’s potential price momentum over time.
