Crypto vulnerability uncovered with $1B in digital asset exposure

In a recent report, Singaporean digital asset financial services firm Matrixport has made a bold forecast regarding the future of bitcoin prices and the potential rejection of spot bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.Photo by André François McKenzie on UnsplashMinority viewWhile most ETF and crypto industry analysts in recent weeks have been suggesting a greater than 90% chance of the imminent approval of a spot bitcoin ETF coming from the SEC, Matrixport has had its say, speculating that the regulator will once again reject all such applications. In a note published to its website on Wednesday, the firm stated:”The current five-person voting Commissioners leadership critical for the ETF approval of the SEC is dominated by Democrats. SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the U.S., and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve bitcoin spot ETFs.” The report emphasizes the dominant influence of Democratic leadership within the SEC, particularly Chairman Gary Gensler's cautious approach to crypto regulation. The Democrat-led administration in the United States has been decidedly anti-crypto in its policies throughout the ongoing term of U.S. President Joe Biden. Matrixport also suggests a potential delay in ETF approvals until Q2 2024, dampening hopes of an imminent market boost. Potential bitcoin price slumpShould the company be right in that speculation, it extrapolates that this turn of events will potentially lead to a substantial decline in bitcoin's value, with the bitcoin unit price possibly dropping to as low as $36,000. This revelation has sent shock waves through the market, prompting Matrixport to advise investors to take protective measures. The recommended strategies include purchasing put options or engaging in direct shorting of bitcoin to mitigate potential losses. With an ominous Jan. 5, 2024 deadline looming, traders could decide to hedge their long exposure by purchasing $40,000 strike put options expiring at the end of January or opting for outright short positions through options. Matrixport's report challenges the previously optimistic expectations surrounding bitcoin's future, highlighting the SEC's likely rejection of spot ETFs as a significant factor. Despite the platform's earlier bullish stance, it now expresses skepticism about the SEC's willingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. The firm contends that the current influx of funds into crypto, driven by expectations of ETF approval, could result in significant liquidations if the SEC denies the proposals. The report estimates that about $10 billion of the $14 billion additional investments might be linked to optimistic ETF prospects. Notably, Matrixport foresees a rapid 20% decline in bitcoin's price, reverting to a range of around $36,000 to $38,000 should the SEC reject the ETFs. Positive long-term outlookDespite the potential setback with the SEC, Matrixport maintains a positive long-term outlook for bitcoin, expecting the BTC price to end 2024 above the $42,000 mark, where it started the year. The analysis also considers historical trends in U.S. election years and bitcoin mining cycles for the potential rally. At the time of writing, the bitcoin unit price is down 4.75% over the course of the past 24 hours, now standing at $42,838. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming SEC decision and may well be heeding Matrixport's advice to navigate potential market volatility.  

Korea’s FSC Opposes Other Agencies’ Involvement in Virtual Asset BillAhead of the National Assembly’s passage of the virtual asset bill, the Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) has repeatedly opposed the involvement of the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) in regulating cryptocurrencies, according to the Korean newspaper Kukmin Ilbo.©Pexels/LukasFSC’s oppositionIn a document submitted to the National Assembly’s National Policy Committee, the FSC opposed stipulating the BOK’s right to request documents in the virtual asset bill. The agency argued that the bill is indirectly related to the BOK’s monetary and credit policy and that explicitly mentioning monetary and credit policy in the bill could lead to the misinterpretation of virtual assets as possessing the characteristics of currencies.The FSC also objected to stipulating the FSS’s right to inspect crypto enterprises. According to law, the purpose of the FSC is to inspect and supervise financial institutions. Explicitly stating the FSS’s right to inspect crypto enterprises could cause confusion to the public that they are financial entities.However, there are growing concerns about the FSC’s perceived intention to dominate virtual asset jurisdiction.At a small meeting held under the National Policy Committee last month, Lawmaker Yoon Han-hong of the ruling People Power Party expressed the view that the FSC should consider incorporating the BOK and the FSS in the virtual asset bill for crypto regulations. During the meeting, the FSC objected to the inclusion of a stipulation that excludes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) from the definition of virtual assets. Meanwhile, the BOK agreed to include such a stipulation.Allowing class action suitsAccording to an internal document obtained by Kukmin Ilbo, the FSC also intends to allow class action suits for crypto investors. It seeks to add cryptocurrencies to a bill proposed for class action suits, which also deal with securities. Class action suits provide a means for victims to receive redress in cases where a representative is successful in winning the lawsuit against the offender.The FSC stated that it will follow the majority on the issue of whether the purpose of the virtual asset bill should include the phrase “to contribute to the development of the nation’s economy,” although it left a cautionary note that some might raise objections to this, considering the speculative nature of virtual assets.

India’s RBI Collaborates Internationally on Digital Rupee PaymentsIndia’s Reserve Bank (RBI) is expanding its exploration of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by focusing on cross-border functionality, despite its cautious approach to CBDC development.The RBI aims to experiment with various use cases for CBDCs in international payments, as it believes this can enhance the efficiency of cross-border transactions. That’s according to a report which was recently published by local media source, the Economic Times. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasized the potential benefits of quicker, seamless, and cost-effective cross-border payments. The RBI is actively engaging in dialogue with other central banks that have already implemented or are planning to introduce CBDCs.Photo by rupixen.com on UnsplashUAE collaborationIn collaboration with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the RBI is promoting joint studies on using CBDCs for settling international payments. The partnership is driven by the high volume of remittances between the two countries, a consequence of the large number of Indian migrants in the UAE.These recent developments follow the RBI’s retail and wholesale CBDC pilot programs, which began just seven months ago. Although the retail pilot attracted 50,000 users within 60 days, the RBI remains committed to a gradual and cautious approach to mitigate potential risks.Onboarding one million CBDC usersWhile expanding the pilot program to new cities, the RBI aims to onboard one million CBDC users within the coming weeks, despite the digital rupee currently having a very low circulation level. On the wholesale side, the RBI’s pilot has shown promising results, with the digital rupee being explored for government bond transactions, money market funds, and short-term lending.RBI Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar emphasized the importance of exploring multiple use cases for CBDCs, including account-based CBDCs. The RBI aims to offer as many applications for CBDCs as possible while ensuring the existing National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) and other systems are not disrupted.Global surge in CBDC developmentThe surge in CBDC development worldwide can be attributed to various factors. The imposition of sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine led to a significant increase in wholesale CBDC initiatives as Russia sought alternatives to bypass the sanctions.Additionally, the diminishing use of cash and the rise of dollarization and cryptocurrency adoption in local economies have motivated over 120 central banks to initiate CBDC research. These central banks are attracted by the potential benefits of financial inclusion and the opportunity to address the decline in cash usage.India has been selective in terms of the aspects of digital asset technology it wants to see further developed within its borders. At a recent conference organized by the RBI, a central bank official called on Indian banks to adopt blockchain technology. When it comes to stablecoins, the central bank is apprehensive, warning of associated risks while calling for global regulation.As India’s RBI continues its CBDC exploration, the focus on cross-border functionality underscores the growing recognition of CBDCs as a transformative tool for international payments. The ongoing collaborations and pilots demonstrate India’s level of interest in staying at the forefront of CBDC development while taking measured steps to ensure a secure and efficient transition to digital currency.