Crypto boom drives $17.5B surge in demand deposit at Korean banks

The decision by U.S. regulators to approve spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January appears to be having some knock-on effects, with the latest such response seeing the Thai authorities enable access to such products for institutional investors and ultra-high-net-worth individuals within Thailand.Photo by Karolina Grabowska on PexelsMeeting a growing demandAccording to a report in the Bangkok Post on March 12, Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has agreed that Thai asset management firms may manage and offer funds that incorporate investment in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products. The decision was arrived at following a recent SEC board meeting. The SEC's decision reflects a strategic response to the growing demand for digital asset exposure among institutional investors. It would appear that spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the United States has bolstered investor confidence in this investment instrument on an international basis. Urging cautionDespite the opportunities this presents for institutional investors, the SEC has emphasized caution, citing the high-risk nature of digital asset investments. SEC Secretary-General Pornanong Budsaratragoon verbalized that need for caution, stating: "Asset management firms asked the SEC for them to have exposure in digital assets, especially Bitcoin and spot Bitcoin ETFs, but we need to consider carefully whether to allow asset management firms to invest in digital assets directly due to the high risk.”It’s interesting to note that in an immediate response to the approval of these products in the United States in January, Thailand’s SEC clarified that it had no plans to allow asset management firms to launch similar products within Thailand. For the moment at least, it seems that demand will be satisfied by accessing products that have gained exposure to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs instead. Retail investors excludedWhile this move expands the investment landscape for institutional players, retail investors in Thailand find themselves sidelined due to regulatory restrictions. The amended regulations primarily cater to accredited investors, leaving retail participation in spot Bitcoin ETFs out of reach. This exclusion contrasts with the popularity of retail crypto trading in Thailand, albeit within regulated boundaries. Recent government regulations have both facilitated and restricted certain crypto activities. Thailand's move aligns with broader trends in the cryptocurrency sector, with several countries, including South Korea and Hong Kong, exploring opportunities in the space. In Hong Kong, regulators are currently processing applications for Bitcoin ETFs, with several financial institutions expressing interest in introducing spot Bitcoin ETFs. Just like the Thai authorities, the governor of the Royal Bank of India (RBI) had also responded in the aftermath of product approval in the U.S. stating that he didn’t favor the approval of such products in India. Despite that, news emerged on March 11 that Indian crypto investment platform Mudrex is planning to meet demand by providing clients with access to these U.S. products. As institutional investors gear up to capitalize on this opportunity in Thailand, the regulatory framework surrounding digital assets will continue to shape market dynamics, both domestically and internationally.

Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin Depot, an American cryptocurrency ATM specialist, is expanding into Hong Kong, citing the city’s burgeoning status as a crypto hub and rapid digital asset adoption across Asia. The Atlanta-based company, which provides kiosks for converting cash into cryptocurrency, went public in July 2023. Its move into Asia follows a recent acquisition of assets from National Bitcoin ATM that boosted its domestic market share to a reported 30% as well as the strengthening of its compliance program. "Hong Kong is quickly becoming a global center for crypto, with the right mix of regulation, demand, and momentum," company president Scott Buchanan said in a Nov. 12 statement.Photo by Keller Chewning on UnsplashHong Kong's digital asset pushBitcoin Depot’s expansion aligns with a concerted push by the special administrative region to position itself as a global hub for digital assets. Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), recently highlighted this ambition, which was underscored by a Nov. 11 announcement of an additional HK$10 billion ($1.3 billion) issuance of digital green bonds. The tokenized bond issuance, the third under the government's program, was denominated in Hong Kong dollars, Chinese yuan, U.S. dollars, and euros, and involved major banks like HSBC, BNP Paribas, and J.P. Morgan. The move also reflects a broader regional trend. In September, Tokyo-based Coinhub launched Japan's first officially registered crypto ATM network, installing 25 machines with plans to expand to 3,000 nationwide. Industry faces regulatory headwindsDespite the growth, the industry faces scrutiny from law enforcement over the use of crypto ATMs in criminal activity. In 2024, the FBI logged nearly 11,000 fraud complaints tied to the kiosks, with reported losses topping $246 million. According to Cointelegraph, increased regulatory attention has prompted several U.S. cities to ban crypto ATMs outright, while some states are introducing new restrictions. Concerns are growing over scams targeting vulnerable groups, especially seniors. Regulatory pressure is also mounting elsewhere. Australia's financial crimes watchdog, AUSTRAC, issued a $56,340 infringement notice last month to local operator Cryptolink, which the company paid. Cryptolink must now appoint third-party reviewers to ensure its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) controls are adequate. The action followed findings from AUSTRAC’s Crypto Taskforce that 85% of transactions by the 90 most frequent crypto ATM users were linked to scam proceeds or money mule operations. AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas urged the public "to be cautious of making transactions to any wallet they don’t control and thinking twice in circumstances where someone asks you to deposit money into a crypto ATM.” 

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence. Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashMacroeconomic risk factorsIn a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn. Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies. Fed BTFP expirationThe second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability. Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year. The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote. Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line. ‘Healthy’ correctionIn terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins. Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.