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Maelstrom CIO predicts temporary bitcoin plunge

Markets·January 06, 2024, 1:49 AM

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence.

 

Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

Macroeconomic risk factors

In a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn.

 

Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies.

 

Fed BTFP expiration

The second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability.

 

Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year.

 

The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote.

 

Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line.

 

‘Healthy’ correction

In terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally.

 

In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins.

 

Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.

 

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Policy & Regulation·

Aug 24, 2023

Thailand’s Incoming Prime Minister Signals Crypto Embrace

Thailand’s Incoming Prime Minister Signals Crypto EmbraceIn a recent parliamentary decision on August 22, real estate magnate Srettha Thavisin emerged as Thailand’s forthcoming Prime Minister. Thavisin, acclaimed for his prior role as the CEO of Sansiri — one of Thailand’s major real estate developers — has a history entwined with the cryptocurrency sector, hinting at potential ramifications for the nation’s crypto landscape.Photo by Markus Winkler on UnsplashParliamentary selection winThe appointment came under the banner of the Pheu Thai Party, with Thavisin securing 482 votes out of 747 in the parliamentary endorsement.Thavisin’s ascent to power could potentially herald a significant shift in Thailand’s approach to cryptocurrencies, leveraging his involvement with Sansiri’s foray into the digital asset domain. Departing from his role as Sansiri’s CEO in April, Thavisin relinquished his 4.4% stake in the company, setting the stage for him to pursue a career in politics.Crypto firm investmentSansiri, under Thavisin’s leadership, undertook active participation in the country’s digital asset arena. Notably, in 2021, the company participated in a substantial $225 million fundraising round for XSpring Capital, a crypto-friendly investment management firm. This strategic partnership paved the way for XSpring to launch a fully integrated cryptocurrency trading platform in 2022, with aspirations to establish a presence among the top crypto exchange companies by 2025.Thavisin’s impact on the crypto sector goes beyond investment. His company also introduced the “SiriHub Token” via XSpring in 2022, presenting a real estate-backed initial coin offering (ICO) that extended 240 million tokens to the public. This duality of involvement from crypto firm investment to token issuance, demonstrates that the new Thai premier has not been afraid to get involved with crypto innovation at an early stage.Crypto airdrop proposalIt appears that Thavisin’s affinity for cryptocurrency transcends corporate endeavors, as his political affiliation with the Pheu Thai Party, which he joined in November 2022, introduced a novel proposition. The party proposed disbursing 10,000 Thai baht (approximately $300) to citizens, executed through digital currency transactions. The synergy between his cryptocurrency background and this proposal raises questions about the potential influence of his past on Thailand’s future crypto policies.As Thavisin’s administration prepares to assume office by the end of September, the extent to which his crypto engagement shapes the nation’s policies remains a topic of speculation. However, the confluence of his real estate expertise and cryptocurrency ventures offers a unique blend of experiences that might foster innovative approaches.Notably, Thavisin’s journey isn’t the sole instance of Thailand’s government engaging with the crypto industry. Earlier in 2023, Thailand’s cabinet introduced tax breaks for companies issuing investment tokens. These measures, announced in March, aim to generate 128 billion baht ($3.7 billion) from investment token offerings over the next two years.Political importanceThavisin’s perceived embrace of cryptocurrency in Thailand comes at a time when crypto and blockchain innovation is being supported by political candidates in multiple jurisdictions. In the United States, the Republican Party is holding a debate on Wednesday between its eight candidates for the presidential nomination, with several of them being pro-crypto.On the Democratic Party side, Robert F. Kennedy is pro-bitcoin, having recently stated that bitcoin is an exercise in extending civil liberty. Meanwhile, in Argentina, Javier Milei, a libertarian pro-bitcoin candidate, topped the poll in the country’s recent presidential primary.

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Policy & Regulation·

Apr 25, 2023

China to Pay State Employees in Digital Yuan

China to Pay State Employees in Digital YuanChina is making its biggest push yet to facilitate greater use of its central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital yuan (e-CNY).©Pexels/RODNAE ProductionsThe eastern city of Changshu is gearing up to commence paying state employees in the city in e-CNY. According to an announcement made by the city’s finance bureau on Sunday, the civil servants will start to receive e-CNY as payment in May. The measure will also impact journalists working for state media, medical staff, technicians and schoolteachers.Advancing a cashless societyThrough a proliferation in the use of digital money such as that offered via WeChat Pay and AliPay, China is already well on its way towards being a cashless society. However, this latest move with the e-CNY is another major step in that direction.In a separate announcement on Sunday, the administrators of the city of Xuzhou, which like Changshu is also located within Jiangsu province, said that Xuzhou is in the process of publishing a pilot scheme which will set out a means for promoting China’s e-CNY digital currency. Meanwhile another Jiangsu province city, Suzhou, was one of the first locations in China to run a digital yuan pilot scheme in April 2020.Previously local government authorities in cities like Shenzhen and Beijing have experimented with using the currency, offering free digital yuan to citizens to spend, in an effort to popularize the digital currency.Changshu had already been using the currency for the best part of a year to make overtime payments to 4,900 state enterprise employees. Additionally, the city administrators had introduced it to pay subsidies, including payments to tech companies, payments related to housing and transport for local government workers. While there’s every likelihood that this latest measure could be applied on a province-wide basis, there has as yet been no direct confirmation of such an eventuality.Privacy concernsThe Chinese government maintains that further introduction of the e-CNY will lead to an improvement for citizens in terms of privacy. Beijing maintains that the large tech platforms like WeChat Pay and AliPay will have no access to the transaction data of individuals and companies. However, that data will find itself directly in the hands of the Chinese government. Given the totalitarian nature of governance in China, it’s hard to imagine how that could be a positive outcome for Chinese society.International currencyOriginally known as DCEP, work on the digital currency began in China in 2014. The Chinese are among a growing list of countries that are understood to be unhappy with the need to use US dollars for international trade given that the dollar is the global reserve currency.That discontent has grown further as a direct response to greater use of sanctions by the United States, and particularly the seizure of Russian sovereign funds held in dollars. Furthermore, the weaponization of the SWIFT payments system exemplified through the exclusion of countries like Russia and Iran is also believed to have been a catalyst for greater development of the e-CNY.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Sep 12, 2023

LG CNS Chooses Six Startups to Foster Innovation in Digital Transformation

LG CNS Chooses Six Startups to Foster Innovation in Digital TransformationLG CNS, the information technology (IT) arm of South Korean conglomerate LG Group, said Tuesday that it has chosen six startups to nurture under its sixth annual Startup Monster program — a program dedicated to supporting technology startups that are capable of pioneering consumer values in the realm of digital transformation (DX). By directly contributing to their growth as startups, LG CNS also aims to secure them as future business partners.Photo by Milad Fakurian on UnsplashAmong those startups is Zkrypto, a company specializing in zero-knowledge proof technology — a method of providing the validity of a statement without revealing the statement itself. Zkrypto will work with LG CNS on security solutions and privacy protection services necessary for operating digital finance services such as digital wallets and security tokens. The two companies already established their relationship earlier last month when they signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to jointly develop blockchain-powered business models.Investing in startup growthUnder the program, the companies will undergo a six-month technology assessment as well as receive KRW 100 million (approximately $75,000) in funding to demonstrate the feasibility of technology integration into their businesses. LG CNS said that it would carry out the assessment by leveraging its extensive business references and technical resources along with assistance from other IT experts.“Through the Startup Monster program, we will continue to discover and nurture promising startups with innovative technologies and create an ecosystem where we can grow together,” said Jeon Eun-kyung, Executive Director of LG CNS’ Convergence Technology Research Institute.Participants from diverse industriesThis year’s recruitment attracted over 240 applicants, resulting in a highly competitive selection ratio of 40:1. Other selected startups besides Zkrypto include GradeHealthChain, Quantum Universe, Delivery Lab, mAy-I, and Circle Platform, which specialize in emerging DX technologies, such as big data analysis, artificial intelligence (AI) modeling, and extended reality (XR).GradeHealthChain is known for its health management app LOG, which analyzes health checkup results and medical information to allocate an overall health score. Users can provide these scores and other medical information to insurance companies partnered with GradeHealthChain to receive premium discounts on insurance. In turn, the insurance companies can use this data to accurately assess the customer’s health status and recommend optimal insurance products. LG CNS plans to work with GradeHealthChain to create services for insurance product recommendations.On the other hand, Quantum Universe specializes in the planning, production, and distribution of XR content. With LG CNS, the company will jointly develop digital twin technology that replicates physical objects in a digital environment for applications in smart factories and manufacturing. They are also pursuing marketing projects using metaverse technology.mAy-I and Circle Platform were chosen for the program for their impressive technical capabilities in data collection and AI modeling. Meanwhile, Delivery Lab operates a food distribution platform in the smart logistics field.LG CNS has been actively nurturing startups and working with them through the Startup Monster program since 2018. Up until last year, a total of 22 startups participated in the program.SelectStar, one of last year’s participants, is currently collaborating with LG CNS as a data construction partner for AI businesses. The two companies have notably created KorQuAD 2.0, a Korean language machine reading comprehension dataset.In addition, Lovo, an AI text-to-speech solutions startup from the third Startup Monster program, worked with LG CNS on developing an AI contact center. According to industry sources, Lovo’s corporate value has increased more than 20 times from the time it participated in the program, reaching KRW 100 billion.

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