Top

Maelstrom CIO predicts temporary bitcoin plunge

Markets·January 06, 2024, 1:49 AM

As the cryptocurrency market anticipates the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the subsequent boost to bitcoin’s unit price, Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of family office Maelstrom, has issued a warning of potential market turbulence.

 

Hayes, better known as the founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has moved on to Hong Kong-based Maelstrom, a family office that invests in early stage infrastructure ventures that implicate a move towards the decentralization of everything.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

Macroeconomic risk factors

In a detailed blog post on Friday, Hayes outlines a number of macroeconomic variables that could lead to a bitcoin unit price downturn.

 

Hayes begins by highlighting the depletion of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has served as a significant driver for risky assets over the past year. This program allows qualified banks and investment firms to park cash and earn interest on it. The RRP balance has rapidly declined from a record high of $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 to $700 billion. Hayes projects it to reach its historical average of $200 billion by March. As this liquidity source dwindles, he anticipates negative impacts on bonds and stocks, as well as cryptocurrencies.

 

Fed BTFP expiration

The second factor contributing to the potential market turmoil is the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12. This crucial Fed facility is designed to provide longer-term loans to commercial banks. The mechanism aids banking sector stability.

 

Hayes is concerned that the BTFP might not be extended. Such an eventuality could lead to bankruptcy for banks holding massive unrealized losses on their bond holdings. It could lead to a “liquidity rug pull” event reminiscent of the banking crisis in March of the previous year.

 

The crypto OG predicts that such an eventuality would force a response. “The combination of a lack of liquidity gushing from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover the bond losses on banks’ balance sheets will decimate the financial markets globally,” he wrote.

 

Hayes asserts that the combination of reduced liquidity from the RRP and the lack of printed money to cover bond losses could have a global impact on financial markets. In response to this scenario, he predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates during its March 20 meeting and reinstate the BTFP funding line.

 

‘Healthy’ correction

In terms of bitcoin’s price, Hayes foresees a “healthy” correction of 20% to 30% from early March prices if the outlined scenario unfolds. However, he suggests the decline could be as much as 40% if BTC rallies to $60,000-$70,000 in the coming weeks. Despite this temporary plunge, Hayes remains optimistic about bitcoin’s resilience, emphasizing its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally.

 

In a recent podcast appearance, Hayes expressed the view that the business model of U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether will be challenged once multinational banks receive the go-ahead to offer fiat-backed stablecoins.

 

Overall, Arthur Hayes has urged investors to be cautious and to prepare for potential market volatility in March, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interconnected factors influencing both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.

 

More to Read
View All
Web3 & Enterprise·

Apr 26, 2024

Phemex introduces Lending Protocol and Pulse Season 3

Stella Chan, the chief operating officer of Phemex, a crypto derivatives exchange with a presence in Turkey and Singapore, recently provided details of the company’s unveiling of its Lending Protocol and SocialFi initiative Pulse Season 3. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Chan outlined that since the founding of the firm in 2019, the company has been evolving and working towards carving out a niche for itself in the industry. The executive confirmed that the exchange business has reached a point where daily trading volume now exceeds $2 billion across more than 300 trading pairs. Pulse Season 3Chan is also the co-founder of Phemex’s Pulse, a social trading platform that rewards users while attempting to foster a community spirit within the crypto sphere. As part of Phemex events held at Token 2024 in Dubai last week, the company announced Pulse Season 3, a SocialFi mechanism to incentivize community engagement. The initiative introduces casting and tipping features. Casting is a means through which community members can post up content. Meanwhile, tipping serves as a method through which other community members can acknowledge and reward high-quality community member contributions. Through this initiative Phemex is hoping to deliver an enhanced experience where trading seamlessly intersects with trending topics and insightful content.Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashPhemex Lending ProtocolAlongside Pulse Season 3, the company has also launched the Phemex Lending Protocol, a feature allowing users to borrow crypto at competitive rates while earning interest. As part of that offering, all loans are safeguarded through the collateralization of the user’s digital assets. With an initial liquidity allocation of $22 million, this protocol has been established with an eye towards empowering traders to amplify their capital without selling their assets, while aligning in a more general sense with the user’s overall trading needs. Phemex is attempting to spearhead the transition towards greater user autonomy without compromising security. The Phemex Lending Protocol is central to that effort, offering users competitive borrowing rates and opportunities for passive income generation.  Standing testament to that, the platform offers interest rates on USDT starting at 3.57%. For those that hold vePT, the wrapped version of the platform's native Phemex token (PT), an additional 30% discount on borrowing rates is being offered. vePT is destined to act as a token which confers voting authority in the not too distant future, relative to Phemex’s governing decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). The platform is further enabling capital efficiency from the service user’s perspective by applying very little restriction so that funds can be withdrawn and redeployed at will, with minimum delay. Coming off the back of these announcements during Token 2024, the company appears to be following through on that momentum. Taking to the X social media platform on April 25, Chan outlined details of a plethora of user experience (UX) upgrades relative to its Pulse offering. Future plansLooking ahead, Phemex envisages the offering of a broader range of products tailored to user needs. Plans for an automated market maker (AMM) protocol aim to provide users with passive earning opportunities by contributing to liquidity. Additionally, Phemex is exploring the development of an on-chain credit scoring mechanism, leveraging its soulbound digital identity token to enhance access to decentralized finance (DeFi).

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Oct 26, 2024

Malaysian exchange Hata raises $4.2M

Hata Digital Sdn Bhd, the fifth licensed crypto exchange in Malaysia, has raised $4.2 million in a seed financing round. That’s according to a press release published by Cointelegraph on Oct. 22 on behalf of the company. The round was led by two blockchain and crypto-centric U.S.-based venture capital firms, Castle Island Ventures and Cadenza Ventures. Commenting on the development, Castle Island’s Nic Carter took to X, stating:”Excited to be coleading the seed for @hataglobal and joining the board. SE Asia is the #1 most active region for crypto adoption and we are pumped to see Hata build for the Malaysian market and beyond.” In further comments included within the press release, Carter complemented Malaysia and the overarching Southeast Asian region as being at the heart of blockchain adoption:“Malaysia and the broader SE Asia region is the global epicenter of blockchain adoption and we are excited to support the talented team at Hata in their support of this market. We believe Hata is well-positioned to win due to their differentiated product focus and regulatory approach.”  Photo by Vlad Shapochnikov on UnsplashAsian expansionThe company has said that it will use the funds in its efforts to expand its product offering and expand within the Asian region through the acquisition of more users. Reflecting upon the investment, Hata CEO David Low said that the company is “committed to creating a robust platform that empowers users in Malaysia and in the Asia region to navigate the digital asset market with confidence.” Other participating investors included Silicon Valley’s Plug and Play Tech Center, Singapore’s AP Capital, crypto accelerator Alliance.xyz and global crypto exchange Bybit. Bybit’s investment into Hata is not its first touch point with Malaysia as earlier this year the exchange business relocated some of its Chinese employees to the Southeast Asian nation.The other lead investor, Cadenza, is headed up by Max Shapiro alongside Kumar Dandapani. Shapiro gave his own take on Hata, stating:“We believe that Hata’s innovative approach and commitment to user engagement will drive the next wave of growth in Malaysia’s digital asset market. We are looking forward to working closely with the team as they navigate this evolving landscape.”  U.S. dollar trading pairsIn 2023 Hata received in-principle approval from the Securities Commission Malaysia (SCM), a local regulator. Earlier this year, it went one further and secured full approval from the regulator. The exchange relies upon offering trading pairs between crypto assets and the U.S. dollar. The platform currently supports in excess of 40 trading pairs.  In addition to the trading license it has acquired from SCM, Hata has also been licensed by the Labuan Financial Services Authority, the statutory body responsible for the development and administration of the Labuan International Business and Financial Centre. The Malaysian startup was established by three co-founders, one of them being a former executive at Luno, the crypto investment platform that operates across Africa, Southeast Asia and Europe. The exchange operates an affiliate program that enables platform users to participate in revenue sharing.

news
Policy & Regulation·

May 16, 2024

China busts underground bank conducting illegal currency exchanges via crypto

China's authorities have dismantled an underground bank that illicitly utilized cryptocurrency for currency exchange operations between the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, involving approximately 2.14 billion yuan ($295.8 million). China has a history of imposing strict capital control policies, prompting some individuals and entities to resort to cryptocurrency as a means of bypassing these regulations. According to a report published by local police in Northeast China’s Jilin province, six suspects were apprehended for their alleged involvement in facilitating the illegal operations spanning China and South Korea.Photo by Hyory Liu on UnsplashExploiting cryptocurrency featuresThe suspects purportedly took advantage of cryptocurrency features like transaction anonymity and decentralization to execute foreign currency exchange activities unlawfully. Investigations revealed that the criminal group utilized domestic accounts for fund receipt and transfer, alongside over-the-counter cryptocurrency transactions. Supporting illicit transactionsThe arrested individuals allegedly aided various entities, including South Korean purchasing agents, cross-border e-commerce platforms and import-export trade firms, in circumventing currency exchange regulations between the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won. 

news
Loading