Research Center Highlights Overvaluation in Overseas Crypto Holdings Reported to Korean Tax Agency

Bithumb Shuts Down Crypto Research Center Amid Trading Volume SlumpBithumb, a cryptocurrency exchange based in South Korea, is shutting down its research center less than a year after its launch, according to a report by news agency Newsis. The closure is seen as a strategic move to enhance business performance in response to the recent decline in trading volume.Photo by Kelly Sikkema on UnsplashCostly research centersEstablished on June 8 last year, the Bithumb Economic Research Institute is reportedly ceasing operations tomorrow. Research centers are often perceived as costly endeavors, particularly when the company is experiencing poor financial performance. In the traditional financial sector, small and medium-sized securities firms typically prioritize restructuring their research divisions when dealing with profitability challenges.Relevance of research hubsAn official from a Korean cryptocurrency exchange told Newsis that research centers can be a financial burden during times of low trading volumes and subpar performance. Nonetheless, the official underscored the need to furnish investors with refined information through these research hubs, encouraging exchanges to cultivate an environment conducive to informed decision-making based on high-quality data.Since its inception, Bithumb’s research organization has published 55 reports aimed at forecasting cryptocurrency market trends using comprehensive macroeconomic and crypto data analysis. These reports have contributed to drawing investors to the sector.Global restructuring trendThe wave of workforce reductions in the crypto industry isn’t isolated to South Korea; it’s a global phenomenon. Chinese reporter Colin Wu, known for his crypto news platform Wu Blockchain, shared via Twitter that Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is planning to lay off roughly 20% of its staff, totaling about 8,000 employees.In response to these concerns, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, wrote a tweet yesterday. According to CZ, employee layoffs are a weekly occurrence within the company, based on considerations such as alignment with corporate culture. As an example, he mentioned the remote work environment and how it may not be suitable for everyone. However, CZ reassured that Binance remains engaged in hiring, with a focus on enriching its talent pool.

NVT Ratio Signals Overvalued BTCThe network value to transaction (NVT) ratio of Bitcoin, which has been staying at a high level since the beginning of the year, has signaled its overvaluation, according to Yonhap Infomax.However, some argue that this will not necessarily lead to a crypto winter, considering that the nature of Bitcoin as an asset has changed and there is no sign of overheating in other indicators.©Pexels/PixabayPrice and NVT ratio correlationYonhap Infomax found out that the correlation between the NVT ratio and the price of Bitcoin over the past six years is -0.35. A value of 1 represents a completely positive correlation, while a value of -1 represents a completely negative correlation.Extending this period to 2010 makes the correlation close to 0, but during the early years, NVT ratios showed high volatility, shooting up to four digits. Such a high volatility doesn’t suggest much correlation. Until 2021, there was a high correlation of up to -0.44.The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the market cap by the transacted volume. Conceptually, it is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for the stock market.In 2017, when the crypto market was bullish, the average Bitcoin NVT ratio was 7.3. This number became 8.7 in 2021 when the market experienced a similar pattern. In retrospect, single-digit NVT ratios usually hint at bullish markets.This year so far, Bitcoin has been relatively overvalued, given that the average NVT ratio is 23.6.BTC price recoveryWhen the crypto market sentiment lost its confidence due to the FTX bankruptcy last year, the price of Bitcoin went down to $15,000. It later recovered to the near $30,000 level. The Bitcoin price once had reached an all-time high in 2021, surpassing $65,000.The years that manifested similar patterns as this year were 2018 and 2019. In those years, the Bitcoin NVT ratio plateaued around 20.Uncertain outlookThe NVT ratio itself could point to a possible crypto winter, but researchers say it’s hard to say.Jang Kyung-pil, a research analyst at crypto data platform Xangle, said that people now consider Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a means of transactions, pointing out that BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has hit the bottom at 0.84 and now reached 1.4. According to Jang, MVRV values under 1 indicate undervaluation and those above 3 indicate overvaluation.Jung Seok-moon, head of the research center at crypto exchange Korbit, said that the current NVT ratio signals BTC overvaluation. He added that the Fed is likely to turn dovish in its monetary policy, which would prompt a strong BTC uptrend.

The European Union (EU) introduced its Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulation in June of last year, refining the EU bloc’s stance relative to digital assets. However, one crypto sector entrepreneur believes that the regulatory framework may force crypto startups to relocate to the Middle East. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of Fideum, a blockchain infrastructure company geared towards institutions, outlined that the application of this regulatory framework by EU member states may have some unintended consequences.Photo by Christian Lue on UnsplashCentralization concernsWhile Plotnikova welcomes the legitimization of crypto through regulation as a net positive for the sector, she warns that this particular regulatory framework could lead to consolidation among crypto firms. That would mean a reduction in the overall number of Web3 enterprises in Europe and as a consequence, increased risk of centralization in an industry that is supposed to be all about decentralization. Whilst the regulatory framework was introduced last year, it's not due to go into full effect until Dec. 30, 2024. Plotnikova believes that the framework doesn’t give crypto startups the wriggle room to scale whereas in the case of larger entities with much more assets under management, they will find it much easier to scale. French multinational financial services company Societe Generale, an entity with around $160 billion worth of assets under management and 126,000 employees, stands out as an example. It recently announced that SG Forge, a subsidiary company, would partner with Austrian crypto exchange Bitpanda to issue and list its EUR ConVertible (EURCV) euro-denominated stablecoin. Another European TradFi behemoth, Landesbank, Germany’s largest federal bank, announced earlier this year that it will launch crypto custody services. Global competitionSpeaking to the publication on the margins of the European Blockchain Convention in Barcelona earlier this week, Plotnikova stated: “I'm afraid it will lead to consolidation between European and American companies, and they will just move somewhere to the Middle East. The European Union had has done amazing things in harmonising legislation, but enforcement comes down to local and national authorities and they vary greatly.” There’s no doubt that various world centers and regions have been competing to varying extents to become innovative hubs relative to the development of blockchain-based enterprises. Plotnikova alluded to Europe losing out to the Middle East in this instance and principal among those nations in the region vying for a share of the business has been the United Arab Emirates (UAE).  The UAE itself, together with individual emirates such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai, has been putting in place a regulatory framework relative to crypto that has been broadly praised by the crypto sector. As recently as earlier last week, the Dubai regulator continues to fine tune its regulatory framework, tightening up requirements related to the marketing of crypto products and services. A recent report by Chainalysis found that the Middle East region accounted for 7.5% of global crypto trading volume, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia having been found to demonstrate a strong interest in decentralized platforms.