Japan’s FSA Proposes Tax Exemption for Unrealized Crypto Gains

Netmarble F&C, a subsidiary of South Korean game developer Netmarble, has taken action to lay off employees by notifying all 70 workers under its Metaverse World project to resign, according to industry sources on Friday (KST). Metaverse World, which had begun developing an IP-based metaverse platform, will be abandoned during an upcoming corporate reorganization process. Photo by julien Tromeur on UnsplashA brief journey from ambition to abandonmentMetaverse World was launched by Netmarble in 2022 by acquiring blockchain gaming platform ITAM Games and Web3 wallet developer Bono Technologies. It had been scheduled to hold a closed beta test last year, but no news of the development has resurfaced since then.  However, it was revealed today that the project will be abandoned during the corporate reorganization process. "We have been looking for a sustainable direction to take the project, but business conditions and market changes have pushed us to make the difficult decision to terminate the Metaverse World corporation, which was developing a metaverse platform,” a representative from the company disclosed. Fluctuating trendsThe metaverse first gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, when gatherings were limited to online spaces. Since then, the industry and other related technologies like Web3, blockchain and NFTs also garnered significant attention, with various companies snagging investments to fund their projects. However, as the attention of tech and investment firms has shifted to AI, these companies have increasingly found themselves in difficult positions. Last September, Com2Verse, the metaverse arm of content provider Com2uS Holdings', also began streamlining its workforce, organizing voluntary retirement and transition arrangements for its employees.

Zodia Custody Expands to Hong Kong to Meet Asian Institutional DemandZodia Custody, the crypto arm of British banking conglomerate Standard Chartered, is extending its digital asset custody services to financial institutions in Hong Kong, making further in-roads in terms of the company’s Asia-Pacific expansion.News of the expanded offering came via a CNBC report published on Sunday. Launched in 2020, Zodia Custody was founded to address the growing institutional demand for secure crypto asset storage, making Hong Kong a strategic addition to its service areas alongside its recent foray into the Australian market.Photo by Emily Xie on UnsplashAsia-Pacific expansionCurrently, only two companies, OSL Digital and HashKey, have obtained licenses from the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to operate within Hong Kong’s regulated crypto space. In its initial phase of operations in Hong Kong, Zodia Custody intends to offer a limited range of crypto assets to its institutional clients, aligning with its commitment to prudent expansion.Zodia Custody’s expansion into Hong Kong follows a series of moves into other key Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets, including Japan, Singapore, and Australia. Moreover, the company remains open to potential partnerships and clientele from regions beyond its current operational footprint.Earlier this month, Zodia Custody made headlines in Australia with the introduction of SAF3, a digital asset custody platform tailored specifically for institutional clients. SAF3 boasts bank-grade cold wallet storage accessible in real-time, complemented by advanced risk management and fraud detection capabilities. Julian Sawyer, the CEO of Zodia Custody, emphasized the importance of responsible institutional adoption, a significant step as Australia’s digital asset industry continues to mature.Institutional demand in Hong KongIn response to the surging institutional interest in crypto assets, Zodia Custody is capitalizing on this market trend, recognizing that Hong Kong’s demand for crypto services is predominantly institutionally driven. Sawyer underlined the unique character of the Hong Kong crypto market compared to other regions, where retail consumers often dominate trading activities. The confluence of institutional demand and Zodia’s specialized services positions Hong Kong as an ideal market for the company’s expansion.Notably, Hong Kong has demonstrated a more crypto-friendly stance compared to its neighboring China, which has taken a stricter approach with crypto bans. Earlier this year, Hong Kong’s SFC introduced a regulatory framework that allows companies to register and provide regulated crypto services. In light of these developments, Zodia Custody is in talks with both the SFC and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to secure regulatory approval within the financial district.Julian Sawyer articulated this opportunity, stating:“The Hong Kong government and the regulators see digital assets as the future and also want Hong Kong to be a hub.” These discussions are poised to pave the way for Zodia Custody to operate within a well-regulated environment.Standard Chartered has been making in-roads into the Asian market, largely through its Singaporean subsidiary SC Ventures. Zodia Custody launched in Dubai in June and in Singapore last month.However, it is not just progressing solely in the Asia-Pacific region. Recently, Zodia Markets, another Standard Chartered subsidiary, achieved registration as a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) with the Central Bank of Ireland. In September, Zodia Markets also made significant strides in the Middle East and Africa by securing In-Principle Approval from the Abu Dhabi Global Market.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.