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Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Terraform Labs seeks summary judgment to dismiss SEC allegationsLawyers representing bankrupt Singaporean crypto firm Terraform Labs and its co-founder, Do Kwon, have requested a summary judgment from a New York judge in their legal battle against the United States’ Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).If granted, such a dismissal could potentially spare them from a full-blown trial. In their motion, the legal team argued vehemently that they are innocent of the SEC’s allegations, maintaining that the regulator has failed to provide any compelling evidence of wrongdoing.Photo by Bermix Studio on UnsplashDefining a securityThe motion, which was filed last Friday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, asserts that the implicated cryptocurrencies of Terra Classic (LUNC), TerraClassicUSD (USTC) and Mirror Protocol (MIR), together with its Mirrored assets (mAssets), are not securities as claimed by the SEC in its complaint.The heart of the matter revolves around the SEC’s assertion that Terraform Labs offered or sold securities, a claim vehemently denied by the defendants. The SEC initially brought the case in February, referencing algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD, which famously collapsed in May 2022.Lawyers claim case is unsubstantiatedBoth Kwon and Terraform Labs’ attorneys argued that despite over two years of investigation, more than 20 depositions, and the exchange of a staggering two million pages of documents, the SEC’s case remains unsubstantiated.The SEC’s original complaint in February accused Kwon and Terraform of raising substantial sums from investors by offering and selling an inter-connected suite of crypto asset securities, many of which were unregistered transactions. SEC Chair Gary Gensler added that Terraform and Kwon had failed to provide investors with full disclosures, notably concerning LUNA and TerraUSD.A key element of the dispute centers on the SEC’s allegation that Kwon and Terraform moved millions of dollars into Swiss bank accounts for personal gain. According to the agency’s complaint, the company and Kwon transferred 10,000 bitcoins to a financial institution based in Switzerland. The legal team representing Kwon and Terraform vehemently denies this allegation, characterizing it as baseless and unfounded.Flawed stablecoin designAlgorithmic stablecoins, such as TerraUSD, operate using market incentives via algorithms to maintain a stable price. Terra was tied to Luna, a governance token, in an attempt to stabilize prices. Unfortunately, the collapse of TerraUSD in 2022 destroyed in excess of $40 billion in value held by investors. It also had a domino effect, leading to a series of other crypto platform collapses later in 2022.Judge Jed Rakoff, presiding over the case in the Southern District of New York, had previously denied an attempt by Terraform Labs and Kwon to have the case dismissed. This new motion for summary judgment represents their latest effort to put an end to the legal proceedings.In a separate but related action, lawyers representing Terraform Labs Co-Founder Daniel Shin asserted that Shin played no role in the collapse of TerraUSD. In a Seoul district court, they emphasized that Shin had nothing to do with the collapse despite being indicted in South Korea in April on various charges, including fraud.

Philippines breaks new ground in first-ever tokenized bonds saleThe Philippines is set to offer the country’s first tokenized treasury bonds, a novel way of issuing debt securities using blockchain technology.Photo by Mara Rivera on Unsplash$179 million tokenized bond issuanceAccording to a report by Bloomberg on Thursday, the Bureau of the Treasury announced that it will issue 10 billion pesos ($179 million) of one-year tokenized bonds next Monday after canceling the conventional auction scheduled for the same day. The bonds will be issued by the Development Bank of the Philippines, a state-owned entity, together with the Land Bank of the Philippines.The tokenized bonds will be sold to institutional investors at a minimum denomination of 10 million pesos, with increments of 1 million pesos. The bonds will have a one-year validity, maturing in November 2024. The treasury bond interest rate has yet to be determined and will be confirmed on the date of issuance.Deputy Treasurer Erwin Sta said that the government is exploring the potential of tokenizing real-world assets and bonds and will “continue to study the technology and test how far we can take it.”Tokenization is the process of converting physical or digital assets into digital tokens that can be stored, transferred and traded on a blockchain network. Tokenization can offer several benefits, such as lower costs, faster transactions, greater transparency and enhanced security.Asian surge in tokenizationThe Philippines is not the only Asian country that is experimenting with tokenized bonds. This latest bond tokenization project follows hot on the heels of a similar move in Singapore. Earlier this week, British banking conglomerate Standard Chartered, through its Singapore-based fintech investment subsidiary SC Ventures, unveiled a new platform called Libeara. Libeara is gearing up to offer the first-ever tokenized Singapore-dollar government bond fund.In February, Hong Kong issued $100 million of tokenized green bonds under its Green Bond Programme, using Goldman Sachs’ tokenization protocol. The tokenized green bonds, a first-of-its-kind issuance, have a one-year validity and aim to support environmental projects in the region.Authorities in Singapore have also launched a series of pilots on tokenizing real-world assets in collaboration with JPMorgan, DBS Bank, BNY Mellon and Apollo, an investment firm. The pilots will test the feasibility and efficiency of tokenizing assets such as equities, bonds and funds. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) partnered with HSBC to conduct the tokenization of bonds as well.The tokenization of real-world assets is not limited to Asia. Israel’s Tel Aviv stock exchange completed a proof-of-concept for tokenizing fiat and government bonds, demonstrating the potential of blockchain technology to transform the capital markets.The tokenization of real-world assets using blockchain technology is a growing trend among governments and financial institutions. According to the Boston Consulting Group, tokenized assets could reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion by 2030. By issuing tokenized bonds, the Philippines is joining the ranks of the pioneers in this field, opening up new possibilities and opportunities for the crypto industry and the economy as a whole.