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Bitcoin Miners Likely Selling at $28K Level, Says Matrixport

Web3 & Enterprise·June 03, 2023, 5:50 AM

According to a report by Singapore-headquartered digital asset financial services provider Matrixport, Bitcoin (BTC) is facing selling pressure at the $28,000 price level, possibly due to miners offloading their newly mined coins.

The report, cited by CoinDesk on Friday, suggests that miners are being compelled to liquidate their inventory as profit margins have contracted in recent weeks.

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels

 

Hashrate all-time high

Mining has become an intensely competitive and often unprofitable endeavor due to the ongoing rise in Bitcoin miner difficulty. The hashrate, or measure of how easily miners can discover a new block of Bitcoin reached an all-time high earlier this week. Markus Thielen, Head of Research at Matrixport, noted that given the current input cost and potential revenue expectations, most machines produced before 2022 appear to be unprofitable.

“At the current input cost and potential output revenue expectations, most of the machines produced before 2022 appear to be unprofitable,” Thielen wrote.

 

Forced selling

Consequently, miners are forced to sell their inventory at the current level rather than holding out for higher prices, which Matrixport anticipates. The report highlights the significant upside potential for miners if Bitcoin prices were to increase by 10% or more, as profitability could quadruple.

The narrowing profit margins for miners reflect the challenges they face in a highly competitive market. As mining difficulty continues to rise, miners must allocate more resources and computing power to mine new coins, reducing their profitability. The situation is particularly tough for miners operating older machines, which are less efficient and more costly to run.

The selling pressure exerted by miners can have a short-term impact on Bitcoin’s price. However, Matrixport’s analysis suggests that if Bitcoin experiences a notable price increase, miners could see a substantial improvement in their profitability. This potential upside convexity creates an incentive for miners to continue their operations and withstand the current market conditions.

 

Ordinals bring increased fees

On the other hand one recent development that is assisting miners is the increase in transaction fees, with the development of Bitcoin Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens over the course of the past six months. That interest seems to be ongoing, and if anything we’re likely to see further development of tokens running on top of the Bitcoin blockchain. On Thursday, Seychelles-based crypto trading platform OKX proposed a new BRC-30 token standard which would enable staking of those tokens, alongside staking of bitcoin.

Singapore-based Matrixport is a portfolio company of crypto investment venture capital firm Foresight Ventures, which is also headquartered in Singapore. The firm provides a suite of products that it is positioning to be innovative and easy to use, offering an all-in-one crypto financial services platform, enabling users to earn, invest, loan, and trade digital assets.

The Matrixport report indicates that miners are likely selling their Bitcoin at the $28,000 level due to squeezed profit margins. While this selling pressure may affect short-term price dynamics, the potential for increased profitability if Bitcoin prices rise significantly provides miners with an optimistic outlook for the future.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jul 25, 2023

Report Cites Escalating Crypto Use by Pro-ISIS Groups

Report Cites Escalating Crypto Use by Pro-ISIS GroupsA recently published report suggests that pro-ISIS terrorist groups in central and southeast Asia and the Middle East are increasing their use of cryptocurrency.According to the report which was published on Friday by blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs, cryptocurrency has become a favored tool for terrorist organizations, with ISIS affiliates showing an increasing preference for the Tron network’s USDT stablecoin. The report highlights that terrorist groups worldwide, including those linked to ISIS, are actively utilizing cryptocurrencies for fundraising purposes, allowing them to attract supporters and bolster their operations.Photo by David McBee on PexelsOn-chain evidenceTRM Labs has been closely monitoring these activities over the past year and has uncovered a growing amount of on-chain evidence. Pro-ISIS networks in countries such as Tajikistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have been observed using crypto assets to facilitate their illicit activities, with Tether (USDT) stablecoin on the Tron network (TRX) being their preferred choice for transactions.The disturbing revelations show how recruited fighters were enticed to join ISIS’ Afghanistan affiliate (ISKP) through the use of cryptocurrency fundraising campaigns. One such campaign operated for over a year and managed an address that received approximately $2 million in USDT on Tron in 2022. TRM Labs played a role in getting the operation dismantled, leading to the arrest of Shamil Hukumatov, a senior ISIS fundraiser allegedly responsible for the scheme.Indonesia & PakistanIn Indonesia, individuals used a crypto platform to transfer over $517,000 in 2022 to addresses linked to pro-ISIS fundraising campaigns in Syria, all using USDT on Tron. This connection demonstrates the global reach and sophistication of the terrorist groups’ crypto operations.Additionally, a media unit associated with ISPP, the Pakistan affiliate of ISIS, ramped up its fundraising efforts in the latter half of 2022. The entity sought to capitalize on natural disasters, such as earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, to raise funds by publicizing various cryptocurrency addresses flagged by TRM Labs as associated with the terrorist organization.SyriaTRM Labs’ investigation ultimately points to pro-ISIS fundraising campaigns in Syria as a central hub for cryptocurrency usage by the terrorist group and its supporters. A significant portion of the donations ends up supporting ISIS families in camps like al-Hol and Roj, as well as funding local cryptocurrency exchanges that facilitate the group’s activities.For TRM Labs, the identification and tracking of these campaigns and their donors are crucial steps in mapping out and potentially disrupting pro-ISIS networks worldwide. Their efforts aim to mitigate the risks posed by the misuse of cryptocurrencies in financing terrorism and illegal activities.The rising adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist organizations poses significant challenges to law enforcement agencies and regulatory authorities worldwide. It’s a worrying development for legitimate users of digital assets as it may result in far more heavy-handed regulation as a direct consequence.Under these circumstances, it is crucial for the crypto community, governments, and regulatory bodies to collaborate in implementing effective safeguards against the abuse of digital currencies for nefarious purposes. Only through collective action can this threat be neutralized.

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Policy & Regulation·

Dec 08, 2023

Korea invites distinguished financial officials to discuss digital money

Korea invites distinguished financial officials to discuss digital moneyThe Bank of Korea (BOK), South Korea’s central bank, announced on Friday (local time) its participation in an international conference focused on the economic impact and future prospects of digital currencies. This event, co-hosted by the BOK, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MOEF), the Financial Services Commission (FSC), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is scheduled to take place in Seoul on Dec. 14 and 15.The conference, titled “Digital Money: Navigating a Changing Financial Landscape,” is set to welcome high-ranking officials such as Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF; Choo Kyung-ho, the Minister of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MOEF); Rhee Chang-yong, the Governor of the Bank of Korea (BOK); and Kim So-young, the Vice Chairman of the Financial Services Commission (FSC). This event is particularly significant as it marks the first visit of IMF head Kristalina Georgieva to South Korea.Photo by pan zhen on UnsplashCrypto, stablecoins, CBDCsDuring the conference, MOEF Minister Choo and FSC Vice Chairman Kim will kick off the event with welcome remarks, followed by a keynote speech from IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva. Spanning over two days, the conference will include seven sessions, covering a diverse range of topics. These sessions will delve into various aspects of digital money, such as practical use cases of digital currencies, regulatory approaches to cryptocurrencies, and discussions on stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).The conference will feature prominent financial officials in both its opening and closing sessions. On the first day, Thursday, a distinguished panel, including IMF Chief Georgieva; Stefan Ingves, the former Governor of Sveriges Riksbank; FSC Vice Chairman Kim; David E. Rutter, the Founder of R3; and Shin Hyun-song, the Economic Adviser at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), will discuss the opportunities and challenges facing digital money.The final session on Friday will see another group of high-level financial authorities sharing their expertise and insights. This session will include BOK Governor Rhee; Eddie Yue, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority; Serey Chea, the Governor of the National Bank of Cambodia; and Veerathai Santiprabhob, the former Governor of the Bank of Thailand. Their discussion will focus on regulatory policies surrounding digital currencies.Live-streaming scheduledThe two sessions of this conference will be accessible to a global audience as they will be live-streamed on the BOK’s official YouTube channel. This provides an opportunity for interested individuals from around the world to tune in and gain insights into the evolving landscape of digital money and its regulatory environment.

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Policy & Regulation·

Oct 04, 2023

Hong Kong’s Development as Crypto Hub May Soften Chinese Stance on Crypto

Hong Kong’s Development as Crypto Hub May Soften Chinese Stance on CryptoHong Kong is making waves in the crypto sector that could potentially signal a shift in China’s attitude toward digital assets. That’s a theory that has been given consideration by crypto analytics firm Chainalysis in a recently released report highlighting Hong Kong’s crypto transformation and suggesting a growing tolerance for crypto within China’s corridors of power.Photo by farfar on UnsplashOTC trade showing resilienceDespite China’s stringent regulations and the ongoing crypto market downturn, Hong Kong’s over-the-counter (OTC) crypto market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with a transaction volume of $64 billion in the past year. While this is slightly less than China’s $86.4 billion, it’s a noteworthy achievement considering Hong Kong’s smaller population and the challenges facing the crypto industry.The close relationship between China and Hong Kong has led some industry commentators to speculate that Hong Kong’s rise as a crypto hub could indicate a shift in China’s stance on digital assets.The crypto-friendly environment in Hong Kong has not gone unnoticed. Merton Lam of Crypto HK, an OTC digital asset trading center in the city, notes that cryptocurrencies have become an integral part of investment portfolios for banks, private equity firms, and high-net-worth individuals in the region. Even Chinese state-owned businesses are launching cryptocurrency-focused investment funds.Hong Kong cornering institutional tradeWhat sets Hong Kong apart in the crypto landscape is its proficiency in large institutional crypto transactions, with 46.8% of its annual crypto trades exceeding $10 million. In contrast, retail trades under $10,000 accounted for just 4% of the city’s crypto volume, slightly below the global average of 4.7%. This institutional dominance distinguishes Hong Kong from other Asian regions.For comparison, South Korea heavily relies on retail trading on centralized exchanges, while Japan maintains a transaction breakdown that aligns closely with global trends, balancing centralized exchanges with DeFi protocols.A cautionary noteHowever, Dave Chapman of OSL Digital Securities offers a note of caution, suggesting that Hong Kong’s promotion as a crypto hub might be more exploratory, aimed at gaining a better understanding of digital assets without significantly loosening mainland policies.Despite the uncertainties, Markus Thielen, Head of Research and Strategy at Singapore’s Matrixport, believes that Hong Kong is acting as a “testing ground” for broader cryptocurrency adoption in China. The city’s unique position makes it an attractive destination for the crypto asset management industry, setting it apart from other jurisdictions that often view crypto firms as service providers rather than end-users.Hong Kong’s progress is particularly noteworthy when considering the broader context of East Asia’s crypto market. Chainalysis analysis reveals that East Asia’s share of crypto transaction value dropped from around 30% in 2019 to less than 10% by the second quarter of 2022 due to China’s crypto bans. Hong Kong’s recent surge could potentially act as a “tailwind” to reignite crypto activity in the region.The evolving relationship between the mainland and the autonomous territory of Hong Kong may hold the key to understanding the future of cryptocurrency in the region.

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