Yuan Surpasses Dollar in China Cross-Border Trade
There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks and months about the continued use of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and newly published data from Beijing now demonstrates that the Chinese yuan became the most widely used cross-border currency in China for the first time in March.
Erosion of dollar dominance
Over the course of the month of March, the US dollar was used in 46.7% of cross border transactions. That’s down 1.1% on the preceding month. Meanwhile, the yuan was the currency of choice in cross border Chinese trade last month, used in 48.4% of all cross border transactions.
While this may seem impressive and it is encouraging for the Chinese authorities, it is still just a drop in the ocean when compared with the overall global cross border transaction statistics. Data produced by international financial messaging service, SWIFT, demonstrates that while the yuan’s share of global currency transactions relative to trade finance increased to 4.5%, that’s just a drop in the ocean. The same data set reveals that the US dollar accounted for around 84% of global cross border transactions in March.
While it’s unlikely that the US dollar will be usurped in its global reserve currency role over the short to medium term, certain cracks are beginning to emerge that serve to weaken the leading fiat currency. According to a recent report by emerging market focused management firm Eurizon SLJ Capital, the dollar demonstrated a decline in reserve currency use of 8% in 2022. Since 2016, the leading international currency has declined in use on an adjusted basis by 11%. It also emerged this week that Argentina will begin to pay China in yuan for imports. The move comes at a time when the South American country is experiencing an acute shortfall in its dollar reserves following a drought-induced decrease in agricultural exports which would have ordinarily brought more dollars into the country’s coffers.
Sanctions
In the case of Russia, China’s yuan replaced the US dollar in monthly trading volume in February for the first time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The emergence of the Russia Ukraine conflict in 2022, and more specifically the United States’ response to Russia as a consequence of the conflict, appears to have led to major change in terms of dollar use. Prior to the invasion, the trading volume of the Chinese yuan in Russia was negligible.
The United States introduced a raft of sanctions that made it difficult for Russian banks and Russian corporations to trade internationally. It also confiscated sovereign funds held in US dollars belonging to Russia.
It’s thought that this move has had wider repercussions as other nations have started to feel increasingly insecure in holding US dollars against that background. The logic is that any potential conflict between a nation and the United States could lead to a similar outcome. The US may have crossed a line that destroys confidence in other countries’ use of the US dollar.
Implications for cryptocurrency
While these weaknesses in the global reserve status of the US dollar are unlikely to lead to its demise in that role any time soon, they may well be a bellwether of what plays out over the longer term. US dollar weakness is one aspect. Set against that, it’s hard to imagine the yuan being so dominant as to ever be the leading world currency relative to international trade.
It’s far more likely that we may see several global ‘reserves’ share the role in the longer term. Bitcoin has been mentioned in the past as a candidate for this role given that it is not associated with any one nation. However, its current market capitalization and trading volume is minuscule by comparison with what would be required of a global reserve currency. That said, in a future where various currencies play a part in holding that reserve status, Bitcoin could very well see a modest but increasingly significant increase in its use for global trade purposes in the years ahead.
