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Yuan Surpasses Dollar in China Cross-Border Trade

Markets·April 27, 2023, 1:45 AM

There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks and months about the continued use of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and newly published data from Beijing now demonstrates that the Chinese yuan became the most widely used cross-border currency in China for the first time in March.

Dollar coin
©Pexels/VOLKAN SORKUN

 

Erosion of dollar dominance

Over the course of the month of March, the US dollar was used in 46.7% of cross border transactions. That’s down 1.1% on the preceding month. Meanwhile, the yuan was the currency of choice in cross border Chinese trade last month, used in 48.4% of all cross border transactions.

While this may seem impressive and it is encouraging for the Chinese authorities, it is still just a drop in the ocean when compared with the overall global cross border transaction statistics. Data produced by international financial messaging service, SWIFT, demonstrates that while the yuan’s share of global currency transactions relative to trade finance increased to 4.5%, that’s just a drop in the ocean. The same data set reveals that the US dollar accounted for around 84% of global cross border transactions in March.

While it’s unlikely that the US dollar will be usurped in its global reserve currency role over the short to medium term, certain cracks are beginning to emerge that serve to weaken the leading fiat currency. According to a recent report by emerging market focused management firm Eurizon SLJ Capital, the dollar demonstrated a decline in reserve currency use of 8% in 2022. Since 2016, the leading international currency has declined in use on an adjusted basis by 11%. It also emerged this week that Argentina will begin to pay China in yuan for imports. The move comes at a time when the South American country is experiencing an acute shortfall in its dollar reserves following a drought-induced decrease in agricultural exports which would have ordinarily brought more dollars into the country’s coffers.

 

Sanctions

In the case of Russia, China’s yuan replaced the US dollar in monthly trading volume in February for the first time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The emergence of the Russia Ukraine conflict in 2022, and more specifically the United States’ response to Russia as a consequence of the conflict, appears to have led to major change in terms of dollar use. Prior to the invasion, the trading volume of the Chinese yuan in Russia was negligible.

The United States introduced a raft of sanctions that made it difficult for Russian banks and Russian corporations to trade internationally. It also confiscated sovereign funds held in US dollars belonging to Russia.

It’s thought that this move has had wider repercussions as other nations have started to feel increasingly insecure in holding US dollars against that background. The logic is that any potential conflict between a nation and the United States could lead to a similar outcome. The US may have crossed a line that destroys confidence in other countries’ use of the US dollar.

 

Implications for cryptocurrency

While these weaknesses in the global reserve status of the US dollar are unlikely to lead to its demise in that role any time soon, they may well be a bellwether of what plays out over the longer term. US dollar weakness is one aspect. Set against that, it’s hard to imagine the yuan being so dominant as to ever be the leading world currency relative to international trade.

It’s far more likely that we may see several global ‘reserves’ share the role in the longer term. Bitcoin has been mentioned in the past as a candidate for this role given that it is not associated with any one nation. However, its current market capitalization and trading volume is minuscule by comparison with what would be required of a global reserve currency. That said, in a future where various currencies play a part in holding that reserve status, Bitcoin could very well see a modest but increasingly significant increase in its use for global trade purposes in the years ahead.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jan 06, 2026

Japan eyes ‘year of digital’ as finance minister signals crypto shift

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Policy & Regulation·

Aug 01, 2023

Binance Expands Crypto Offering in Dubai with New License

Binance Expands Crypto Offering in Dubai with New LicenseDubai has welcomed one of the biggest players in the crypto sector, Binance, with the Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) awarding the firm a new trading license.Photo by Petar Avramoski on UnsplashServing qualified investorsAccording to an announcement made by the company on Monday, Binance’s Dubai-based subsidiary, Binance FZE, has secured the operational Minimum Viable Product (MVP) license from VARA.Eligible investors in Dubai, deemed as “qualified retail clients,” will now have access to authorized services such as compliant crypto-to-fiat exchanges, adhering to the guidelines set by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). To qualify, investors must meet specific criteria, including being at least 21 years old and possessing a minimum of 500,000 United Arab Emirates dirhams ($136,000) in net liquid assets, supported by relevant documentary proof like bank statements and proof of funds.Additionally, qualified investors are required to provide valid identification documents, including passports and visas, along with proof of a valid UAE address and contact details. This comprehensive verification process ensures compliance with regulatory requirements and enhances security measures for all parties involved.Expanded service offeringThe move is a significant development as it allows Binance to offer cryptocurrency exchange and virtual asset broker-dealer services to institutional and qualified retail investors in Dubai.With the new license, Binance’s Dubai entity can now offer crypto-to-fiat exchange, conversions, transfer and custody solutions, brokerage facilities, as well as virtual asset payments and remittance services. The development builds upon Binance’s previous progress, having received the provisional MVP license in March 2022, followed by the preparatory MVP license in September 2022.Licensing challengesIt’s worth noting that some crypto exchanges have faced challenges operating with preparatory MVP licenses due to limited capabilities, only serving a restricted set of accredited investors. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou had previously highlighted this concern. That said, Zhou still came to the conclusion recently that the regulatory approach in the UAE is superior by comparison with many other jurisdictions.The news of Binance’s successful licensing comes shortly after VARA suspended the operational license of another crypto exchange, BitOasis, for not meeting required conditions within the set timeframes. BitOasis assured its commitment to fulfilling the remaining conditions in collaboration with VARA.In April 2023, VARA sought additional information from Binance, aiming to tighten regulatory standards in the emirate. Binance promptly provided all requested information and looked forward to further collaboration with VARA as it prepared for the next phase of licensing.Compliance with VARA’s framework includes adherence to compulsory rulebooks related to general operations, compliance, and market conduct requirements. The regulator has published key highlights of the regulations in 2023, underscoring its efforts to create a robust and well-regulated crypto market in Dubai.Regulatory headwindsBinance’s latest regulatory achievement indicates the exchange’s dedication to expanding its services and offerings in the region. It could potentially lead to something even more significant for the company in the Middle East as Binance has suggested that it would be more likely to expand in places such as Dubai, given an adverse regulatory approach elsewhere.Over the course of the past three months, the company has been forced out of key markets such as Germany, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Cyprus, due to regulatory pushback.

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Policy & Regulation·

May 24, 2023

Hong Kong Moves to Enable Retail Crypto Trade

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