China’s GAPP proposes ban on gaming crypto token conversion

The blockchain network underpinning Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, requires an energy volume comparable to the annual consumption of Thailand. According to Digiconomist’s Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, the protocol utilized roughly 204.44 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity between Nov. 18, 2024, and Nov. 18, 2025.Photo by Fré Sonneveld on UnsplashFiscal losses drive Malaysian oversightAmid these intense energy demands, Malaysia’s primary electricity utility has recorded substantial financial impairments attributed to illicit activities. Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) reported losses totaling 4.57 billion ringgit ($1.1 billion) from illegal crypto-mining operations over a five-year span. In a Nov. 19 report by The Edge Malaysia, the Ministry of Energy Transition and Water Transformation (Petra) disclosed these figures to parliament, specifying that the unauthorized mining occurred at 13,827 locations between 2020 and August of this year. To counter these infractions through regulatory channels, Petra has formed a special committee scheduled to convene before year-end. This body aims to recommend enhancements to the Electricity Supply Act, which currently delineates penalties based on the offender's classification. Domestic violators face fines ranging from 1,000 to 50,000 ringgit ($240 to $12,000), imprisonment of up to one year, or both. Penalties escalate for non-domestic entities, involving fines between 20,000 and one million ringgit ($480 to $240,000) and potential prison terms of up to five years. Despite these provisions regarding electricity theft, a specific legal code regulating the act of crypto mining remains absent, creating a jurisdictional void. International bans and grid reallocationStrategies to curtail electricity usage by crypto miners are becoming evident elsewhere in Southeast Asia as well. Laotian Deputy Energy Minister Chanthaboun Soukaloun told Reuters last month that the nation intends to suspend electricity supplies to crypto miners by early 2026. He cited the sector's minimal economic contribution and low job creation as primary factors. Consequently, the state plans to redirect power to high-priority sectors, including AI data centers, metals processing, and electric-vehicle manufacturing. Parallel restrictions are emerging globally. In October, the government of British Columbia enacted a permanent prohibition on new BC Hydro connections for crypto miners to safeguard the Canadian province’s energy reserves. Officials pointed to the industry’s "disproportionate energy consumption and limited economic benefit" as the rationale for the policy. The debate over thermal innovationConversely, some enterprises are exploring methods to capture thermal output from Bitcoin mining to heat residential and commercial properties. If viable, such repurposing could utilize the considerable thermal byproducts of mining. A K33 Research study cited by CNBC indicates the industry generates roughly 100 TWh of heat annually, a figure sufficient to warm the entirety of Finland. However, industry consensus on the feasibility of these applications remains elusive. Proponents suggest that mining infrastructure could be situated in proximity to heat consumers. Skeptics, however, contend that the reliance on application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chips makes this impractical, arguing that the technical difficulty of mining a block renders household participation unfeasible. Despite these differing views, the concept continues to attract attention as a potential avenue for innovation in energy distribution. As jurisdictions like Malaysia and British Columbia tighten regulatory oversight, the cryptocurrency sector faces mounting pressure to address its energy footprint. The divergence between government restrictions and industry-led efficiency proposals underscores the complex relationship between digital asset infrastructure and global energy resources. Given the shifting landscape of policy and technology, the outlook for sustainable large-scale crypto mining remains uncertain, as governments weigh energy demands against economic benefits and the industry searches for more efficient ways to operate.

Mitsui & Co. and Animoca Brands to Drive Web3 Innovation in Japan’s Digital LandscapeTokyo-based trading and investment company Mitsui & Co. (Mitsui) has announced today a strategic partnership with Hong Kong-based Web3 gaming firm Animoca Brands. This new partnership aims to utilize Mitsui’s extensive business network to foster new ventures that contribute to the distribution and advancement of Web3 technology in Japan. The companies will particularly focus on utilizing blockchain technology to address issues such as wellness and carbon credits.Mitsui expects this collaboration to strengthen its presence in the blockchain and digital assets space. The goal is to promote the development of a digital society and improve the lives of Mitsui’s customers.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashAnimoca Brands’ Web3 expertiseAnimoca Brands, a well-known company specializing in digital entertainment, blockchain, and gamification, has an impressive portfolio of over 450 Web3 investments. This includes popular non-fungible token (NFT) based online video game Axie Infinity and NFT marketplace OpenSea. Animoca Brands actively promotes digital property rights and the establishment of the open metaverse, a blockchain-based virtual space that ensures permissionless access and user ownership of data.Mitsui’s blockchain initiativeMitsui also initiated a blockchain-related project through its affiliate Mitsui & Co. Digital Asset Management (MDM). Just last month, MDM launched Alterna, a security token platform that grants retail investors access to previously inaccessible real-world assets (RWAs), such as large-scale real estate properties and infrastructure. To expand the reach of Alterna, MDM has partnered with Sony Bank, a member of the Sony Financial Group, to introduce the platform to the Tokyo-based online bank’s clients.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.