Crypto fund manager secures capital markets license in Singapore

Bhutan Launches Blockchain-Based National ID SystemBhutan, the Buddhist kingdom nestled along the eastern edge of the Himalayas, has introduced a blockchain-based National Digital Identity (NDI) system.Photo by Aaron Santelices on UnsplashDisrupting the delivery of government servicesThe blockchain-based cryptographic identity platform has the potential to revolutionize the way Bhutanese citizens access government services and conduct digital transactions. According to local Bhutanese media source BBS, the system was launched last week, giving Bhutanese citizens the opportunity to download the Bhutan NDI application directly to their mobile devices.The user-friendly application promises a seamless experience, marked by a straightforward login process. Once registered, citizens will gain access to an array of government services. These will include construction approvals, land taxes, passport services, birth and death registration certificates, as well as Royal University of Bhutan degree certificates and various business-related services, all within the confines of their digital wallets.Digital wallet alongside digital identityNotably, the development could have major implications where the future use of digital currency in Bhutan is concerned. The NDI is not just a digital identity but a digital wallet.That means that users have the option to link their bank accounts to the NDI app, facilitating financial transactions without the need to switch between multiple apps. As of now, the Bank of Bhutan is the first financial institution to integrate with the NDI app.The Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA) entered into a collaboration with enterprise blockchain firm Ripple Labs in September 2021 to develop and trial central bank digital currency (CBDC).Streamlining service deliveryThe GovTech Agency, the driving force behind the NDI project, envisions that this digital innovation will streamline and simplify the often arduous process of interacting with government agencies. Jigme Tenzing, the Acting Secretary of the GovTech Agency, explained the transformative potential, stating:“So, essentially what this enables for Bhutan is the ability to take almost all services and make them available online. This can virtually transform how services are provided in Bhutan. This is regarded as not only services that the government provides to citizens, but it can extend to even the private sector.”Some concerns have been raised with regard to this consolidation of personal information within a single platform. The GovTech Agency has responded by emphasizing the incorporation of biometric data, including fingerprint and facial recognition, to enhance identity verification and authentication. It feels that these measures are sufficient to safeguard data privacy.Crypto investmentThere had been little in the way of news emerging from the South Asian country where decentralized technology was concerned until earlier this year when it became known that the kingdom had been an investor on the failed crypto lender platforms of Celsius and BlockFi.It had done so through Druk Holdings and Investments (DHI), the commercial arm of the Royal Government of Bhutan. In May it emerged that DHI had entered into a partnership with Singapore-based Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer, with the intention of developing green digital asset mining operations within the country.The National Digital Identity Act of Bhutan 2023 received Royal Assent in July, solidifying Bhutan’s status as the first sovereign nation to implement a comprehensive decentralized identity framework.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

The Philippines' central bank has confirmed it has no plans to issue a retail version of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) but that it has definite plans to introduce a wholesale-level CBDC, albeit without using blockchain as the underlying technology. Avoiding retail-level bank run riskThe bank expressed concerns that a retail CBDC could potentially trigger bank runs, given the velocity at which digital currency can be transacted. However, in an interview with local media outlet, the Inquirer, the central bank governor Eli Remolona clarified that within the next two years, the country has definite plans to roll out a wholesale CBDC. CBDCs come in retail and wholesale forms, with the former accessible to the general public and the latter exclusively for institutional use. While the Philippines central bank initiated an exploratory study previously relative to CBDC use, concerns have been raised by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) about the readiness of institutions to handle the risks associated with CBDCs.Photo by Krisia on PexelsDismissing blockchainDespite this move, the bank does not intend to utilize blockchain or digital ledger technology, which are fundamental to many virtual assets. Remolona stated: "Other central banks have tried blockchain, but it didn’t go well." Instead, the CBDC will operate on a payment and settlement system owned by the central bank, with a focus on wholesale transactions mediated by banks. This marks a shift in the central bank's approach to underlying technology where a CBDC is concerned. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) initially embarked on an exploratory study regarding CBDCs in 2022, known as Project CBDCPh. Upon completion of that study, it followed up with a pilot project called Project Agila, concentrating on a wholesale CBDC. Project Agila leaned on the use of the Hyperledger Fabric blockchain, considering it for use on the first wholesale CBDC.  Hyperledger Fabric is an open-source blockchain framework hosted by the Linux Foundation. Companies like IBM, SAP and Intel have all contributed to the development of the enterprise-grade permissioned blockchain network. However, it appears that the BSP is shying away from using any type of blockchain-based solution in establishing its CBDC. Regional steps towards CBDC useThe central bank of the Philippines is among several in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region that are working towards the introduction of a CBDC. Earlier this month an official from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) outlined that the central bank will move forward with CBDC development while working towards addressing privacy concerns that citizens may have with a digital rupee. Towards the end of last month, the Japanese government, in collaboration with the Bank of Japan, appeared to be gearing up for the rollout of a CBDC. In a recent meeting between both parties, several legislative matters were identified as key to ensuring a smooth path to the unobstructed launch of a digital currency. There has also been a lot of activity relative to attempts to utilize CBDCs for cross-border trade over the course of the past year. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the country announced the first-ever use of its CBDC or digital dirham in a trade deal with China using mBridge, a multi-CBDC platform that supports peer-to-peer, cross-border payments in real time.