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BitMEX Co-Founder Forecasts $750K to $1 Million Bitcoin Price by 2026

Markets·October 07, 2023, 12:39 AM

In a recent interview with YouTuber Tom Bilyeu, Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of the Seychelles-registered cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform BitMEX, has expressed his bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s future price, projecting a valuation of $750,000 to $1 million for the leading cryptocurrency by the year 2026.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

 

Finite supply to drive price dynamic

Hayes’ optimism is rooted in several factors that he believes will shape the next Bitcoin cycle. One of the key factors driving Hayes’ projection is Bitcoin’s limited supply. With a maximum cap of 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s scarcity is expected to propel the unit price of the asset in tandem with growing demand as more investors seek to secure a piece of this finite resource.

The idea that Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive its value higher has been a fundamental tenet of the cryptocurrency since its inception. In 2010 the leading cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous Founder stated: “When someone tries to buy all the world’s supply of a scarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes.”

 

ETF potential

Hayes also highlighted the potential for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to become available in major regulated markets. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could attract institutional investors and provide a more accessible way for the broader public to invest in Bitcoin, further boosting its demand.

However, Hayes also speculates about the risks associated with a Bitcoin ETF. He stated: “Are we inviting in something that’s going to fundamentally change what Bitcoin is?”

 

Geopolitical factors

Geopolitical uncertainty plays a significant role in Hayes’ forecast also. As global economic and political instability persists, investors may turn to Bitcoin and other alternative assets as hedges against traditional financial instruments.

However, it’s important to note that Hayes contextualized his Bitcoin price prediction within a larger bullish macroeconomic environment. From his perspective the surge in asset prices will not be limited to cryptocurrencies alone. He anticipates a substantial boom in financial markets, with not only Bitcoin but also traditional assets like stocks experiencing substantial price growth.

Hayes stated: “I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price.”

Known for his thoughtful and insightful writings on the subject area, Hayes wrote in July that he believes that Bitcoin will be the currency of choice when it comes to the growing need for artificial intelligence (AI) to work directly with a means of payment.

 

$1 million BTC by 2026

While Hayes’ projection of a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2026 may seem ambitious, his short-term predictions are more moderate. He foresees Bitcoin trading in the $30,000 range for the current year. Building upon that thesis, he maintains that the possibility exists of it reaching $70,000 by 2024.

This aligns with the views of other industry analysts who anticipate challenges and headwinds in the near term. There’s little doubt that recent platform failures and speculation with regard to the health of other leading crypto platforms have been retarding market performance more recently.

While the road ahead may hold fluctuations and challenges, many experts believe that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains promising, driven by its unique attributes and the changing dynamics of global finance.

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Policy & Regulation·

Apr 19, 2023

Korea’s FSC Opposes Other Agencies’ Involvement in Virtual Asset Bill

Korea’s FSC Opposes Other Agencies’ Involvement in Virtual Asset BillAhead of the National Assembly’s passage of the virtual asset bill, the Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) has repeatedly opposed the involvement of the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) in regulating cryptocurrencies, according to the Korean newspaper Kukmin Ilbo.©Pexels/LukasFSC’s oppositionIn a document submitted to the National Assembly’s National Policy Committee, the FSC opposed stipulating the BOK’s right to request documents in the virtual asset bill. The agency argued that the bill is indirectly related to the BOK’s monetary and credit policy and that explicitly mentioning monetary and credit policy in the bill could lead to the misinterpretation of virtual assets as possessing the characteristics of currencies.The FSC also objected to stipulating the FSS’s right to inspect crypto enterprises. According to law, the purpose of the FSC is to inspect and supervise financial institutions. Explicitly stating the FSS’s right to inspect crypto enterprises could cause confusion to the public that they are financial entities.However, there are growing concerns about the FSC’s perceived intention to dominate virtual asset jurisdiction.At a small meeting held under the National Policy Committee last month, Lawmaker Yoon Han-hong of the ruling People Power Party expressed the view that the FSC should consider incorporating the BOK and the FSS in the virtual asset bill for crypto regulations. During the meeting, the FSC objected to the inclusion of a stipulation that excludes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) from the definition of virtual assets. Meanwhile, the BOK agreed to include such a stipulation.Allowing class action suitsAccording to an internal document obtained by Kukmin Ilbo, the FSC also intends to allow class action suits for crypto investors. It seeks to add cryptocurrencies to a bill proposed for class action suits, which also deal with securities. Class action suits provide a means for victims to receive redress in cases where a representative is successful in winning the lawsuit against the offender.The FSC stated that it will follow the majority on the issue of whether the purpose of the virtual asset bill should include the phrase “to contribute to the development of the nation’s economy,” although it left a cautionary note that some might raise objections to this, considering the speculative nature of virtual assets.

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Policy & Regulation·

Sep 01, 2023

Report Reveals Global Trends and Online Discourse on Crypto Travel Rule

Report Reveals Global Trends and Online Discourse on Crypto Travel RuleCODE, the only Travel Rule solution provider in South Korea, together with blockchain consulting firm Catalyze Research, published a report that sheds light on global trends in Travel Rule legislation and popular online keywords associated with the Travel Rule. The Travel Rule is a set of guidelines that virtual asset service providers (VASPs) and financial institutions are obligated to observe in order to counteract money laundering and terrorist financing. These guidelines require these entities to share information about both the sender and the recipient of cryptocurrency or financial transactions.The authors of this report gathered online comments related to the Travel Rule from January 1, 2019 to July 31, 2023. They conducted this analysis across news outlets, media platforms, online forums, and various social media channels, encompassing over 200 countries and 150 languages.Photo by Volodymyr Hryshchenko on UnsplashKey events driving discussionsAccording to the report, online discussions concerning the Travel Rule intensified around the time of several key events. These events include the enforcement of the Travel Rule in South Korea in March 2022, the approval of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) and Transfer of Funds Regulation (TFR) by the European Union in April 2023, endorsements of the Travel Rule by G7 countries in Japan in May 2023, and the subsequent implementation of the Travel Rule in Hong Kong and Japan in June 2023.Notably, South Korea, Japan, and France experienced the most substantial surges in Travel Rule-related discussions during the first half of 2023. In South Korea, comments were prompted by a lawmaker’s scandal related to cryptocurrency trading. Meanwhile, Japan and France observed a rise in comments linked to the enforcement of their respective local Travel Rule regulations in the second quarter.Negative market responsesIn addition, markets responded more negatively than positively to the tightening of Travel Rule regulations. The concerns about the market contraction were stronger than the positive outlook on the advantages of preventing money laundering.Lee Sung-mi, CEO of CODE, highlighted the growing significance of Travel Rule solution providers in ensuring the compliance of virtual asset service providers (VASPs) with the regulatory demands of various jurisdictions. Particularly, with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), G7 nations, and the EU at the forefront, countries have been making noteworthy strides in Travel Rule implementations since 2023, she further noted. Lee emphasized CODE’s commitment to aiding its member VASPs in adhering to Travel Rule regulations by delivering secure and convenient services that align with the evolving global regulatory landscape.

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Sep 28, 2023

Bahrani Bank Launches JPM Coin Payments

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