Top

BitMEX Co-Founder Forecasts $750K to $1 Million Bitcoin Price by 2026

Markets·October 07, 2023, 12:39 AM

In a recent interview with YouTuber Tom Bilyeu, Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of the Seychelles-registered cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform BitMEX, has expressed his bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s future price, projecting a valuation of $750,000 to $1 million for the leading cryptocurrency by the year 2026.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

 

Finite supply to drive price dynamic

Hayes’ optimism is rooted in several factors that he believes will shape the next Bitcoin cycle. One of the key factors driving Hayes’ projection is Bitcoin’s limited supply. With a maximum cap of 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s scarcity is expected to propel the unit price of the asset in tandem with growing demand as more investors seek to secure a piece of this finite resource.

The idea that Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive its value higher has been a fundamental tenet of the cryptocurrency since its inception. In 2010 the leading cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous Founder stated: “When someone tries to buy all the world’s supply of a scarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes.”

 

ETF potential

Hayes also highlighted the potential for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to become available in major regulated markets. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could attract institutional investors and provide a more accessible way for the broader public to invest in Bitcoin, further boosting its demand.

However, Hayes also speculates about the risks associated with a Bitcoin ETF. He stated: “Are we inviting in something that’s going to fundamentally change what Bitcoin is?”

 

Geopolitical factors

Geopolitical uncertainty plays a significant role in Hayes’ forecast also. As global economic and political instability persists, investors may turn to Bitcoin and other alternative assets as hedges against traditional financial instruments.

However, it’s important to note that Hayes contextualized his Bitcoin price prediction within a larger bullish macroeconomic environment. From his perspective the surge in asset prices will not be limited to cryptocurrencies alone. He anticipates a substantial boom in financial markets, with not only Bitcoin but also traditional assets like stocks experiencing substantial price growth.

Hayes stated: “I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price.”

Known for his thoughtful and insightful writings on the subject area, Hayes wrote in July that he believes that Bitcoin will be the currency of choice when it comes to the growing need for artificial intelligence (AI) to work directly with a means of payment.

 

$1 million BTC by 2026

While Hayes’ projection of a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2026 may seem ambitious, his short-term predictions are more moderate. He foresees Bitcoin trading in the $30,000 range for the current year. Building upon that thesis, he maintains that the possibility exists of it reaching $70,000 by 2024.

This aligns with the views of other industry analysts who anticipate challenges and headwinds in the near term. There’s little doubt that recent platform failures and speculation with regard to the health of other leading crypto platforms have been retarding market performance more recently.

While the road ahead may hold fluctuations and challenges, many experts believe that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains promising, driven by its unique attributes and the changing dynamics of global finance.

More to Read
View All
Policy & Regulation·

Feb 27, 2024

Korean and U.S. regulators to discuss recognizing NFTs as virtual assets in May

Lee Bok-hyun, the governor of South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), is set to have a meeting with Gary Gensler, the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in May. The purpose of their meeting is to discuss whether to classify non-fungible tokens (NFTs) as virtual assets. Currently, NFTs are not seen as virtual assets in Korea, but there is a high likelihood of them being acknowledged as such following the meeting in May, local financial media outlet Edaily reported.Photo by Andrey Metelev on UnsplashLack of definition for NFTsAn NFT is a digital certificate of authenticity that is not fungible or replicable. NFTs tokenize content or assets of various types – from images, music, videos, games and artworks to real-estates – by assigning a unique token ID to them. Many see 2018 as the year NFT technology was first introduced.  Despite its wide range of applications, no legal definition has been made for NFTs. Some view NFTs as technology, and others as virtual assets or securities. The Korean government decided not to recognize NFTs as virtual assets under the Virtual Asset Protection Act (Virtual Asset Act), effective in July. Behind this decision is a perception that NFTs are less likely to pose significant risks to the market, as a large portion of NFTs are now traded by collectors seeking to expand their private collections.  However, NFTs are increasingly seen as speculative destinations by many investors over time, as prices of virtual assets including BTC surge. This shift backs the local movement to recognize NFTs as well as spot bitcoin ETFs as virtual assets. Opposition from NFT businessesBlockchain industry insiders say defining NFTs is of utmost importance, noting that classifying NFTs as virtual assets headfirst could deal a heavy blow to businesses in this sector. One finance insider mentioned that defining NFTs comes down to understanding their purposes and how they are utilized. If NFTs are primarily used for speculative purposes or as currency, they could be recognized as virtual assets, the person said.  The biggest resistance is coming from NFT-related businesses. That is because recognizing NFTs as virtual assets would require these businesses to obtain a virtual asset service provider (VASP) license from the financial authority, which takes significant costs and workforce in the process. A CEO of a blockchain startup, who preferred to remain anonymous, expressed concerns about the possibility of NFTs becoming virtual assets, saying that such recognition would enable NFT transaction tracing, potentially leading to severe violations of human rights. While many industry insiders expect that the financial authorities will bring NFTs under the forthcoming Virtual Asset Act, the FSS stated that no decisions have been made regarding details of the upcoming meeting with the U.S. SEC. 

news
Policy & Regulation·

Jul 06, 2023

South Korea Introduces ABLE Alliance for Blockchain Advancement and Collaboration

South Korea Introduces ABLE Alliance for Blockchain Advancement and CollaborationThe South Korean Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) celebrated the launch of the Alliance of Blockchain Leading Digital Economy (ABLE) yesterday, according to its press release. The ministry convened a meeting in Seoul to discuss the government’s digital transformation agenda with the alliance’s members.Photo by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashStartups’ challengesIn the rapidly evolving blockchain technology landscape, Korean startup vendors have encountered challenges in finding clients for their products. Moreover, they often face the problem of their services or technology becoming outdated by the time they are ready to be brought to market. To address these issues, MIST and the Korea Internet and Security Agency (KISA) took the initiative to establish the ABLE alliance.64 ABLE membersThe ABLE alliance consists of 64 entities, categorized into three distinct groups: clients, vendors, and advisors. Prominent clients include financial institutions such as the Bank of Korea, KB Kookmin Bank, and Hana Bank. Notable vendors within the alliance include Lambda256, a blockchain solution provider; AhnLab Blockchain Company; and Raon Secure, a mobile security solution. Serving as advisors are well-known participants like SK Securities; NH Investment Securities; and Nice Information Service, a credit bureau and corporate intelligence data provider.Objectives and rolesThe primary objective of the ABLE alliance is to promote effective communication among its entities, fostering a better understanding of each other’s requirements for blockchain projects. ABLE will serve as a centralized point of contact for handling various industry suggestions.To achieve its goals, ABLE will operate an advisory body that offers consultations on diverse areas such as attracting investments, expanding into overseas markets, formulating regulations and policies, and facilitating networking within the technology sector. The alliance will also provide opportunities for its members to showcase and explain their products and technologies to one another. Regular meetings will be conducted to share industry trends and policy developments, ensuring seamless communication among the alliance members.

news
Policy & Regulation·

Dec 07, 2023

Japan mulls unrealized crypto gains tax exemption

Japan mulls unrealized crypto gains tax exemptionJapanese lawmakers are currently in discussions about a proposal that could exempt companies from paying taxes on unrealized cryptocurrency gains.Photo by Joshua Tan on UnsplashReforming aggressive crypto tax policyThe plan is anticipated to be incorporated into the fiscal 2024 tax reform agenda, according to a report published by Nikkei Asia on Wednesday.Up until now, Japan has had some of the most aggressive tax rates where cryptocurrencies are concerned when compared internationally. At the moment, corporations have to pay a 30% tax on crypto holdings regardless of whether they’ve sold those digital assets or not. The policy has been criticized broadly by crypto sector participants in Japan. It is seen as inequitable, considering that Japan taxes profits from stocks at a flat 20%.Corporate tax exemptionThe proposal, currently under deliberation by Japan’s ruling coalition, specifically targets Japanese companies holding digital assets for purposes other than short-term trading. If approved, these firms may be granted an exemption from corporate tax, contingent on mark-to-market valuations at the close of the fiscal year.Mark-to-market valuations involve assessing the fair values of assets with periodic fluctuations, such as cryptocurrencies. This exemption is expected to benefit various entities, including venture capital (VC) firms, non-fungible token (NFT) businesses and other blockchain companies holding cryptocurrencies for payment purposes. Additionally, crypto issuers, who are also crypto holders, would not be subjected to these taxes.Policymakers from the Liberal Democratic Party and the ruling coalition partner Komeito engaged in discussions on Tuesday regarding these potential tax exemptions.Bringing clarity to crypto taxationThis move is part of Japan’s ongoing efforts to bring clarity to crypto taxation. In June, the National Tax Agency clarified that crypto issuers in the country would not be liable to pay capital gains taxes on unrealized gains, fostering a more conducive environment for crypto-related businesses.Japan has been actively reviewing its crypto tax policies since last year, aiming to incentivize companies to stay in the country. This initiative follows the departure of several startups due to heavy tax burdens.Industry reactionWith news of this potential Japanese crypto tax reform breaking, crypto community members haven’t wasted any time in providing their thoughts. Taking to the X social media platform, Sota Watanabe, the founder of the Astar Network multichain dApp hub, wrote:”Good move. This is what I requested multiple times to the government over years. Once this issue is solved this year, all companies, especially big enterprises, can hodl crypto like ASTR much easier. Japan weighs ending tax on some corporate crypto holdings.”Former Goldman Sachs Portfolio Manager and Web3 investor, Steve Lee, said that this is “another big move in Japan that would help enterprises push their crypto business.”The Financial Services Agency (FSA), Japan’s top financial regulator, recently submitted legislation-change requests to the government, seeking alterations to the taxation of domestic crypto firms. Critics argue that the existing rule has impeded innovation in the crypto-asset and blockchain sectors, placing an undue burden on companies.On Oct. 16, major businesses in Japan, through the Japan Association of New Economy (JANE), urged the government to implement crypto tax reforms in 2024. Their appeal emphasizes the potential for reduced tax rates to stimulate growth and increase tax revenue.

news
Loading