Top

BitMEX Co-Founder Forecasts $750K to $1 Million Bitcoin Price by 2026

Markets·October 07, 2023, 12:39 AM

In a recent interview with YouTuber Tom Bilyeu, Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of the Seychelles-registered cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform BitMEX, has expressed his bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s future price, projecting a valuation of $750,000 to $1 million for the leading cryptocurrency by the year 2026.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

 

Finite supply to drive price dynamic

Hayes’ optimism is rooted in several factors that he believes will shape the next Bitcoin cycle. One of the key factors driving Hayes’ projection is Bitcoin’s limited supply. With a maximum cap of 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s scarcity is expected to propel the unit price of the asset in tandem with growing demand as more investors seek to secure a piece of this finite resource.

The idea that Bitcoin’s scarcity will drive its value higher has been a fundamental tenet of the cryptocurrency since its inception. In 2010 the leading cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous Founder stated: “When someone tries to buy all the world’s supply of a scarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes.”

 

ETF potential

Hayes also highlighted the potential for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to become available in major regulated markets. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could attract institutional investors and provide a more accessible way for the broader public to invest in Bitcoin, further boosting its demand.

However, Hayes also speculates about the risks associated with a Bitcoin ETF. He stated: “Are we inviting in something that’s going to fundamentally change what Bitcoin is?”

 

Geopolitical factors

Geopolitical uncertainty plays a significant role in Hayes’ forecast also. As global economic and political instability persists, investors may turn to Bitcoin and other alternative assets as hedges against traditional financial instruments.

However, it’s important to note that Hayes contextualized his Bitcoin price prediction within a larger bullish macroeconomic environment. From his perspective the surge in asset prices will not be limited to cryptocurrencies alone. He anticipates a substantial boom in financial markets, with not only Bitcoin but also traditional assets like stocks experiencing substantial price growth.

Hayes stated: “I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price.”

Known for his thoughtful and insightful writings on the subject area, Hayes wrote in July that he believes that Bitcoin will be the currency of choice when it comes to the growing need for artificial intelligence (AI) to work directly with a means of payment.

 

$1 million BTC by 2026

While Hayes’ projection of a $1 million Bitcoin price by 2026 may seem ambitious, his short-term predictions are more moderate. He foresees Bitcoin trading in the $30,000 range for the current year. Building upon that thesis, he maintains that the possibility exists of it reaching $70,000 by 2024.

This aligns with the views of other industry analysts who anticipate challenges and headwinds in the near term. There’s little doubt that recent platform failures and speculation with regard to the health of other leading crypto platforms have been retarding market performance more recently.

While the road ahead may hold fluctuations and challenges, many experts believe that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains promising, driven by its unique attributes and the changing dynamics of global finance.

More to Read
View All
Policy & Regulation·

Nov 14, 2023

India’s judiciary turns down plea to formulate a crypto regulatory framework

India’s judiciary turns down plea to formulate a crypto regulatory frameworkThe Indian courts have declined a consideration targeting the establishment of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency trading, following a plea which had been brought to court by a petitioner.Photo by Naveed Ahmed on UnsplashBeyond the court’s purviewIndia’s Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Chandrachud, recently confronted a petition urging the establishment of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency trading. According to a local media report, the bench, which included Justices JD Pardiwala and Manoj Misra, dismissed the plea, emphasizing that the demands presented were legislative and thus beyond the court’s direct action purview. This decision points to the judiciary’s recognition of its constraints in crafting laws, particularly in intricate domains like cryptocurrency.The petitioner, Manu Prashant Wig, a former director at Blue Fox Motion Picture Limited currently in custody due to allegations of cryptocurrency fraud, sought relief through a public interest litigation (PIL) for crypto trading regulations in India.The Economic Offence Wing (EOW) of the Delhi Police accused Wig in 2020 of deceiving investors with promises of high returns from crypto investments, involving 133 reported victims of the scheme. Despite this, during the hearing, the Supreme Court advised Wig to pursue legal remedies through appropriate channels, specifically for bail, underlining its inability to issue directives under Article 32 of the Constitution for legislative matters.Judiciary criticize governmentWhile the judiciary has found that it cannot act itself in putting in place a crypto regulatory framework, the Supreme Court has been critical of the government’s inaction on the matter. In July, India’s highest court criticized the Indian government for its failure to establish clear cryptocurrency regulations.Interestingly, while the government hasn’t acted locally, it has been making efforts to drive regulation at an international level instead. The status of cryptocurrency trading in India remains uncertain, with the country developing a regulatory framework influenced by recommendations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB), potentially leading to legal legislation within the next several months.Prime Minister Modi called on authorities internationally to establish a worldwide regulatory framework. At the recent G20 summit, it appears that member states did reach agreement on such a framework.The Supreme Court’s dismissal of the PIL marks a clear distinction between judicial and legislative responsibilities. As India moves closer to formulating a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework, this decision reinforces the imperative for legislative action to address mounting concerns and interests in the crypto market.Awaiting legislative actionThe outcome of these developments is keenly awaited by investors, legal experts and the crypto community, poised to shape the future landscape of cryptocurrency trading in India. The decision signifies the judiciary’s acknowledgment of its limitations and highlights the necessity for a legislative approach to effectively navigate the intricate landscape of cryptocurrency regulation.In this evolving scenario, the verdict amplifies the importance of a well-defined regulatory framework. As the world’s most populous country grapples with the delicate task of balancing innovation and investor protection, the Supreme Court’s decision places the ball firmly in the legislative court.

news
Policy & Regulation·

Jan 18, 2024

Tax burden contributes to Indonesian crypto exchange trading slump

While Indonesia has been recognized as one of the world's swiftest embracers of cryptocurrencies, it has faced a notable setback more recently, with a 60% decline in transaction volumes on local exchanges compared to the preceding year. High taxesIn a recent report by CoinDesk Indonesia, the publication speculates that the imposition of high taxes may be a pivotal factor dissuading traders and impacting the overall market dynamics. Indonesia’s tax system treats crypto assets as commodities, with the burdensome taxes arising as a direct consequence of that classification. The tax framework in Indonesia subjects crypto assets to both income tax and value-added tax (VAT), treating them akin to commodities. Leading crypto exchanges in the country reveal that the cumulative tax load on each transaction could surpass the trading fees imposed by exchanges, potentially discouraging users from engaging in crypto transactions. Oscar Darmawan, the CEO of the leading Indonesian crypto exchange INDODAX, told CoinDesk that users bear an income tax of 0.1% and a VAT of 0.11% on every crypto transaction. Additionally, exchanges are required to remit a 0.04% fee to the recently established national crypto bourse. Darmawan clarified that “this places a significant financial burden on the domestic crypto industry." expresses Darmawan in an interview with CoinDesk Indonesia, underscoring the challenges faced by the industry due to the current tax structure.Photo by Nataliya Vaitkevich on PexelsAn international issueThe tax treatment of digital assets has been a bugbear for the crypto space on an international basis. In Japan, it arose last month that the country’s lawmakers were considering applying an exemption for companies from paying taxes on unrealized cryptocurrency gains. It has since transpired that such an amendment will be applied to its fiscal 2024 tax reform plan. India has applied a heavy tax burden where crypto is concerned, with a 30% tax applied to capital gains relative to the sale of crypto assets. Additionally, 1% taxation applies by way of a tax deducted at source (TDS) on crypto transactions. The use of cryptocurrency for the purchase of goods and services in the United States remains a stumbling block, given that the current tax code treats such a scenario as a taxable event. Last year, two U.S. senators attempted to address that issue, by including a $200 exemption for purchases made with cryptocurrency. Calls for crypto asset reclassificationIn response to this dilemma in Indonesia, some stakeholders within the local crypto industry advocate for a paradigm shift in the classification of crypto assets. They propose treating crypto as securities instead of commodities, anticipating that this alteration could alleviate the tax burden on users. Yudhono Rawis, the CEO of the exchange platform Tokocrypto, asserts: "Both stocks and crypto are tradable assets with profit potential … Thus, implementing the same tax regime for both these investment instruments would be more equitable and consistent." The industry anticipates regulatory changes in the near future, as crypto oversight in Indonesia is set to transition from the commodities regulator to the Financial Services Authority (OJK) in January 2025.  

news
Web3 & Enterprise·

Aug 11, 2023

NS Studio and Factor Labs to Enhance Military Security with Blockchain Technology

NS Studio and Factor Labs to Enhance Military Security with Blockchain TechnologyKorean game developer NS Studio announced on Thursday its collaborative research effort with blockchain-based security solutions company Factor Labs to boost the security system of its specialized virtual reality simulator used in military training centers and multinational security firms.Photo by Filip Andrejevic on UnsplashProtecting special combat forcesThe two companies signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to develop a blockchain-based security system to be integrated into military training equipment that aims to safeguard the identity and behavioral data of special combat forces. Factor Labs’ security technology and blockchain expertise will be integrated into NS Studio’s military training programs, facilitating safer training sessions.“Given the fact that special combat forces are important assets whose identities are considered national secrets, we want to amp up the security of the simulation programs that keep a record of their identities and behavioral patterns using blockchain technology,” the two companies said in a joint statement.“We have begun developing the necessary technology for this project and are preparing to implement the security program starting in the latter half of this year.”Blockchain’s role in military securityThis collaboration underscores the increasing role of cutting-edge technologies like blockchain in ensuring the security and privacy of sensitive data not just in the financial context but also in military and security contexts. The combined efforts of NS Studio and Factor Labs are poised to contribute to the advancement of secure training simulations for special operations personnel.

news
Loading