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Amid the ongoing cryptocurrency market slowdown, a South Korean analyst said a rebound will hinge on effective policy measures and sustainable business models.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashAnalyst urges policy and profitabilityAccording to an analysis by iM Securities researcher Yang Hyun-kyung, cited by local outlet Etoday, the current downturn stems from several factors: a liquidity crunch in short-term funding markets, a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising risk aversion, and a prevailing narrative of a cyclical correction. Yang noted that a strong dollar typically drains market momentum, as tighter global liquidity prompts investors to deleverage and reduce exposure to risk assets. He added that growing uncertainty over potential U.S. rate cuts in December has further fueled risk aversion among institutional investors, putting selling pressure on both major cryptocurrencies and altcoins. While the expected resolution of the U.S. government shutdown may create a more favorable environment for a modest technical rebound, Yang argued that the crypto sector still needs to develop profitable business models and gain growth momentum through supportive policy measures. Brokerage frames crypto as diversifierDespite the current headwinds, another Korean brokerage firm released a quarterly report framing digital tokens as an emerging alternative asset class. According to Etoday, Hanwha Investment & Securities CEO Jang Byung-ho wrote in the report that the primary goal of retail investment is to preserve purchasing power. He drew a parallel to the U.S. market in the 1980s, when bond investors would have seen their returns erode had they failed to recognize equities as a viable investment vehicle. Citing that lesson, Jang suggested investors consider digital assets as a new pillar for portfolio diversification. Diverging approaches from global central banksThese evolving viewpoints on crypto come against a complex global macroeconomic backdrop. From one perspective, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has begun quantitative easing (QE). Otavio Costa, a macro strategist at Crescat Capital, shared a chart on X showing that the value of the PBOC’s balance sheet assets is on track to surpass that of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Costa predicted the Fed would soon follow suit, stressing that investors are underexposed to hard assets. This potential easing contrasts with speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates next month. One BOJ board member noted at a recent policy meeting that most conditions for a hike have already been met and added that a move is likely once wage negotiations scheduled for spring point to sustained pay growth, as long as the global economy avoids major disruptions. These diverging policy directions have mixed implications for the crypto market. Typically, dovish measures like QE are seen as supportive, as increased liquidity tends to boost risk appetite. Rate hikes, by contrast, withdraw liquidity from the system, limiting the upside for risk assets like digital tokens. As economic conditions evolve and the industry adapts, investors will be watching closely to see how these shifts shape the market’s next moves. 

When Samsung Securities surveyed its high-net-worth clients about which investment assets they believed would be most effective for wealth growth in the future, only a small fraction, 1.9%, pointed to virtual assets, as reported by South Korean news outlet Newsis. The majority favored domestic and foreign stocks, which garnered a significant 45.4% of the vote. Following this, domestic and foreign bonds were chosen by 18.1% of respondents, and real assets like real estate and gold were also considered favorable, with 16.8% backing these options.Photo by Lukas on PexelsInvestment preferences of high-net-worth clientsThe survey conducted by Samsung Securities involved a select group of 368 participants, each with assets totaling KRW 3 billion ($2.3 million) or more. It focused on their perspectives regarding this year’s stock market trends and their individual investment strategies. This specific demographic provided insights into the investment preferences and outlooks of high-net-worth individuals. In the survey, when these individuals were queried about the methods they’ve used to accumulate their wealth, the most prevalent answer was investment in financial instruments such as stocks and funds, with 35.9% indicating this as their primary method. Business income was the second most common source of wealth, cited by 29.9% of participants. Wage income was also a significant contributor, mentioned by 19.6%. Additionally, gifts and inheritance played a role, accounting for 7.1% of wealth growth. Meanwhile, real estate investments were the least common, with only 6.5% of the respondents identifying it as a key wealth growth strategy. Regarding the optimal timing for stock purchases this year, a notable portion of the investors expressed a preference for the beginning of the year, with many pinpointing the first quarter as the ideal time, as indicated by 51.6% of respondents. This preference was followed by the second quarter, favored by 27.7%, the third quarter at 13.6% and the fourth quarter being least favored with only 7.1%. In terms of promising industries for investment, over half of the respondents, 50.6%, identified artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors as the most prospective sectors. These technologies are viewed as pivotal in shaping the future of the tech industry. Following AI and semiconductors, rechargeable batteries, which were the top-performing segment in the previous year, garnered notable interest, with 16.7% of respondents favoring them. The survey identified key figures likely to impact the stock market this year: former U.S. President Trump (30.4%), U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell (15.8%), U.S. President Biden (7.1%) and Saudi Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (3.3%). Business leaders like Tesla’s Elon Musk (6.0%), OpenAI’s Sam Altman (5.4%) and Novo Nordisk’s Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen (2.4%) were also mentioned for their influence. When asked about the most important issue of the financial market for the new year, 51.1% pointed to “interest rate cuts in major economies” as their top concern. Following this, 15.2% highlighted the outcome of the U.S. presidential election as a significant issue. Additionally, the advancement of new industries such as AI and robotics was flagged as an important topic by 10.3% of those surveyed. Stock market experts’ crypto optimismIn contrast, a 2024 stock market outlook survey by local media outlet Money Today, which polled 225 stock market experts, showed a more optimistic stance towards investing in cryptocurrencies this year. When questioned about their willingness to invest in crypto assets like bitcoin, 20% responded very affirmatively, and an additional 34.2% expressed a similar interest, totaling over half of the respondents showing readiness to invest in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, 18.7% were unsure, and 27.1% had negative views, including 16.4% saying “no” and 10.7% opting for “strongly no”. In the newspaper survey, when specifically asked about bitcoin’s future value, 24.9%, the largest group of respondents for this question, predicted that bitcoin’s price would reach or exceed KRW 70 million, the highest estimate provided in the survey’s options. Meanwhile, 17.8% of the experts estimated that the price would range between KRW 60 million and 70 million. 

U.S. authorities seize crypto tied to Asian ‘pig butchering’ scamThe United States government has taken control of digital currency valued at approximately half a million dollars from an account linked to a Chinese individual implicated in a Reuters investigation into a crypto-investment fraud originating from Southeast Asia.Photo by Growtika on Unsplash‘Pig butchering’According to Reuters, U.S. officials have disclosed that the seized assets are connected to a crypto-investment scam known as “pig butchering,” where fraudsters manipulate unsuspecting individuals they encounter online, convincing them to invest in fraudulent crypto schemes.The unsuspecting scam victim (the pig) is conned by scammers into handing over money with the promise of an outsized return. Once funds have been handed over, the vast majority of victims are unable to recover their money.According to a document filed by U.S. authorities in federal court in Massachusetts, the U.S. Secret Service confiscated the crypto in June from an account registered to Wang Yicheng. At the time of the seizure, the digital currency was valued at around $500,000. The funds were traced back to a victim in Massachusetts who had initially fallen prey to the scam.In a recent Reuters article, Wang was identified as a businessman who cultivated relationships with members of Thailand’s law enforcement and political elite while serving as the vice president of a Chinese trade group based in Bangkok. The report outlined that a crypto account in Wang’s name had received over $90 million in recent years, with at least $9.1 million linked to a crypto wallet associated with pig-butchering scams, as reported by U.S. blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs.Multi-million dollar scamsOne case highlighted in the report involved a California man who was scammed out of approximately $2.7 million, funds that were channeled into the account in Wang’s name. Another example cited in the U.S. court filing detailed a resident of Cambridge, Massachusetts, who was allegedly defrauded of about $478,000 worth of crypto, which ended up in two crypto accounts, one of which belonged to Wang.The U.S. court filing, part of a civil forfeiture action, seeks court approval to take possession of assets linked to the alleged crime. While no criminal charges have been filed, Acting U.S. Attorney Joshua Levy emphasized the use of civil forfeitures to recover funds stolen through crypto fraud schemes, highlighting law enforcement’s adaptability in the face of cryptocurrency transactions’ seemingly elusive nature.Crypto scammers sanctionedIn a related development, authorities in the United Kingdom reported on Friday that individuals operating pig butchering crypto scams in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos had been sanctioned, in a move coordinated with their counterparts in the U.S. and Canada, alongside the United Nations Human Rights Organization.Many of these cases are understood to involve human trafficking, where individuals are illegally detained and forced to work on pig butchering crypto scams.