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Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Chinese Insurer Founds 2 Crypto Funds in Hong KongChina has been in the headlines lately as the country continues to take a growing interest in cryptocurrencies in spite of a previous clampdown. According to a blog post published last Thursday, a Chinese state-owned insurance company launched two crypto funds, further solidifying the country’s stance on digital assets.©Pexels/Charlie JinChinese crypto resurgenceChinese insurance behemoth, the China Pacific Insurance Company (CPIC) has launched the two cryptocurrency funds in Hong Kong. The funds will be managed by the firm’s asset management unit, CPIC Investment Management, and have been established in conjunction with venture capital and blockchain start-up investment firm, Waterdrip Capital. Furthermore, they will focus on investments in cryptocurrencies and related assets, with a particular emphasis on Bitcoin and Ethereum.Waterdrip was originally founded in Shanghai in 2017, and has previously invested in the Chinese crypto mining sector, together with other blockchain-related projects. The move comes as China continues to make strides towards becoming a leader in the digital currency space. Last year, the country’s central bank announced plans to create its own digital currency, which is currently in the testing phase. The move is seen as a way for China to gain more control over its financial system and reduce its reliance on the US dollar.Hong Kong crypto hubChina’s growing interest in cryptocurrencies has been driven in part by the country’s rapidly growing tech industry. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are leading the way in digital payments and e-commerce, and many believe that cryptocurrencies will play a key role in the future of online transactions.The launch of these two crypto funds by a state-owned insurance company is just the latest indication of the formative development of Hong Kong as a crypto hub. Its believed that China is treating crypto development in Hong Kong as a manner in which it can determine how digital assets can be utilized subsequently on mainland China.It’s not the first time a state-owned entity has gotten involved in cryptocurrency. Earlier this year, a state-owned company launched two crypto funds in Hong Kong, with a focus on investing in Bitcoin and other digital assets.Previous crypto crackdownDespite China’s growing interest in cryptocurrencies, the country has also taken a tough stance on the industry in the past. In 2017, the Chinese government banned initial coin offerings (ICOs) and shut down local cryptocurrency exchanges. However, it appears that the country’s stance is shifting, with the launch of these two crypto funds serving as a clear indication of China’s growing interest in digital assets.While China’s embrace of cryptocurrencies is seen by many as a positive development for the industry, there are also concerns about the country’s growing influence in the space. With China’s central bank developing its own digital currency, some worry that the country could use it to further extend its financial reach and influence around the world.Despite these concerns, it’s clear that China’s interest in cryptocurrencies is only growing. As the country continues to make strides in the digital currency space, it will be interesting to see how it impacts the global economy and the future of finance.

Thailand’s Incoming Prime Minister Signals Crypto EmbraceIn a recent parliamentary decision on August 22, real estate magnate Srettha Thavisin emerged as Thailand’s forthcoming Prime Minister. Thavisin, acclaimed for his prior role as the CEO of Sansiri — one of Thailand’s major real estate developers — has a history entwined with the cryptocurrency sector, hinting at potential ramifications for the nation’s crypto landscape.Photo by Markus Winkler on UnsplashParliamentary selection winThe appointment came under the banner of the Pheu Thai Party, with Thavisin securing 482 votes out of 747 in the parliamentary endorsement.Thavisin’s ascent to power could potentially herald a significant shift in Thailand’s approach to cryptocurrencies, leveraging his involvement with Sansiri’s foray into the digital asset domain. Departing from his role as Sansiri’s CEO in April, Thavisin relinquished his 4.4% stake in the company, setting the stage for him to pursue a career in politics.Crypto firm investmentSansiri, under Thavisin’s leadership, undertook active participation in the country’s digital asset arena. Notably, in 2021, the company participated in a substantial $225 million fundraising round for XSpring Capital, a crypto-friendly investment management firm. This strategic partnership paved the way for XSpring to launch a fully integrated cryptocurrency trading platform in 2022, with aspirations to establish a presence among the top crypto exchange companies by 2025.Thavisin’s impact on the crypto sector goes beyond investment. His company also introduced the “SiriHub Token” via XSpring in 2022, presenting a real estate-backed initial coin offering (ICO) that extended 240 million tokens to the public. This duality of involvement from crypto firm investment to token issuance, demonstrates that the new Thai premier has not been afraid to get involved with crypto innovation at an early stage.Crypto airdrop proposalIt appears that Thavisin’s affinity for cryptocurrency transcends corporate endeavors, as his political affiliation with the Pheu Thai Party, which he joined in November 2022, introduced a novel proposition. The party proposed disbursing 10,000 Thai baht (approximately $300) to citizens, executed through digital currency transactions. The synergy between his cryptocurrency background and this proposal raises questions about the potential influence of his past on Thailand’s future crypto policies.As Thavisin’s administration prepares to assume office by the end of September, the extent to which his crypto engagement shapes the nation’s policies remains a topic of speculation. However, the confluence of his real estate expertise and cryptocurrency ventures offers a unique blend of experiences that might foster innovative approaches.Notably, Thavisin’s journey isn’t the sole instance of Thailand’s government engaging with the crypto industry. Earlier in 2023, Thailand’s cabinet introduced tax breaks for companies issuing investment tokens. These measures, announced in March, aim to generate 128 billion baht ($3.7 billion) from investment token offerings over the next two years.Political importanceThavisin’s perceived embrace of cryptocurrency in Thailand comes at a time when crypto and blockchain innovation is being supported by political candidates in multiple jurisdictions. In the United States, the Republican Party is holding a debate on Wednesday between its eight candidates for the presidential nomination, with several of them being pro-crypto.On the Democratic Party side, Robert F. Kennedy is pro-bitcoin, having recently stated that bitcoin is an exercise in extending civil liberty. Meanwhile, in Argentina, Javier Milei, a libertarian pro-bitcoin candidate, topped the poll in the country’s recent presidential primary.