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Japan’s rate hike looms over Bitcoin as institutional skepticism persists

Markets·December 15, 2025, 9:30 PM

Bitcoin is facing growing uncertainty as it trades near $90,000, down nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000. While the cryptocurrency remains under pressure, investors are increasingly focused on Tokyo, where a potential change in monetary policy could tighten global liquidity.

 

According to CoinDesk, which cited a report from Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, a move that would push borrowing costs to their highest level in nearly three decades. Historically, a stronger yen has often been associated with weaker Bitcoin performance amid tighter global liquidity.

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Yen carry trade in focus

The report suggested that higher rates could unwind the yen carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow cheap yen to fund positions in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and U.S. Treasuries. A similar dynamic played out following the Japanese central bank’s July hike, which precipitated a market-wide selloff that dragged Bitcoin from roughly $65,000 down to $50,000.

 

However, CoinDesk noted that a recurrence of such volatility cannot be assumed. It added that speculative positioning is already skewed toward yen strength, while steadily rising Japanese bond yields suggest monetary policy is adjusting to prevailing market realities.

 

Institutional skepticism toward Bitcoin

Beyond the macroeconomic landscape, fundamental skepticism remains entrenched among traditional finance heavyweights. John Ameriks, Vanguard’s global head of quantitative equity, said at Bloomberg’s ETFs in Depth conference that the asset behaves more like a speculative digital collectible, comparable to a Labubu toy, than a conventional investment, citing its lack of income generation, compounding, and cash-flow characteristics.

 

Ameriks’ comments follow Vanguard’s move earlier this month to permit trading of select third-party crypto ETFs. He said the decision was based in part on the funds’ ability to establish a track record since their January 2024 launch. While acknowledging that Bitcoin could theoretically offer value during periods of high inflation or political instability, he maintained that its history remains too short to draw conclusions.

 

Bullish case for Bitcoin

A contrasting view was offered by Katherine Dowling, president of the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company. Speaking with DL News, Dowling projected that Bitcoin would surge to $150,000 by the end of 2026. She pinned this bullish outlook on favorable U.S. regulatory shifts, increased liquidity from Federal Reserve rate cuts, and sustained institutional adoption via ETFs.


The perceived influence of institutional flows was also underscored by a recent weekly survey of 2,000 South Korean investors conducted by CoinNess and Cratos. The data showed that 42.3% of respondents view flows into and out of spot Bitcoin ETFs as the primary price driver. Monetary policies in major economies like the U.S. and Japan ranked second at 26.7%, while 16.3% pointed to shifts in equity markets. Another 11.5% attributed price action to the halving cycle, and 3.4% said they could identify no specific catalyst.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jun 07, 2023

Lawsuit Sees Further Chinese Crypto TV Coverage

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Web3 & Enterprise·

Jul 04, 2025

Solana faces rising phishing threats in South Korea amid growing adoption

As Solana (SOL) gains institutional momentum through new investment products and major platform integrations, the blockchain is also becoming a target for sophisticated phishing scams in South Korea.Photo by GuerrillaBuzz on UnsplashFake websites and impersonatorsAccording to a recent Etoday report, attackers have been impersonating the Solana Foundation and Superteam Korea, a developer community within the Solana ecosystem. Using fake group chats on messaging platforms like KakaoTalk and Telegram, the scammers deploy official branding and fabricated partnership announcements to appear legitimate. Victims are lured with promises of five SOL tokens for creating wallets on fraudulent websites mimicking Solflare, a widely used Solana wallet. Users are then instructed to stake their tokens in exchange for daily yield, enabling the scammers to access their funds. The schemes have become more advanced, with perpetrators using names and photos of Superteam Korea members and generating fake wallet interfaces that display fabricated token balances. When victims attempt to withdraw funds, they are removed from chats, blocked from further communication and left with inactive websites as evidence is wiped. The Solana Foundation and Superteam Korea have issued public warnings, stating they do not solicit investments through messaging platforms or request payments to specific accounts. They have noted an increase in phishing sophistication and advised users to be cautious of unsolicited offers, particularly those that promise guaranteed returns. Solana adoption gains momentumThese scams stand in contrast to Solana’s recent growth. The Rex-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF, launched in the U.S., recorded $12 million in inflows and $33.6 million in trading volume on its first day. It is the first U.S.-listed ETF to offer SOL exposure with staking rewards available directly through brokerage accounts. Additionally, PancakeSwap’s V3 liquidity pool went live on Solana, offering up to 84% of trading fees to liquidity providers and enabling swaps starting at 0.01%.Amid these developments, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen expressed cautious optimism about Solana, predicting it could set new all-time highs this year, though likely with more difficulty than Bitcoin. They pointed to rising interest in stablecoins, ETF approvals and the emergence of treasury firms focused on SOL and Ethereum (ETH) as key factors that could support long-term value. The pair also reaffirmed Bitwise’s $200,000 price target for Bitcoin, citing sustained institutional demand.

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Policy & Regulation·

Dec 16, 2025

Korea to seek central bank input only for major stablecoins

South Korean lawmakers are moving to seize control of the nation’s stalled second phase of digital asset legislation, aiming to bypass months of interagency gridlock and introduce a comprehensive regulatory framework by January. The legislative acceleration comes as Seoul races to align with global standards following the implementation of the U.S. GENIUS Act in July, a shift that has intensified pressure on local regulators to formalize oversight of the crypto sector. According to a report from the Maeil Business Newspaper, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) plans to introduce the Digital Asset Basic Act as a lawmaker-sponsored bill rather than wait for a government submission. The procedural move is intended to ensure that formal deliberations can begin during the February provisional session. Lawmaker Kang Jun-hyeon, a DPK member of the National Policy Committee, told reporters on Dec. 11 that relying on the government’s timeline would jeopardize passage of the bill in the first half of next year. Kang cited points of disagreement among the parliament, the government, and industry stakeholders. Among the authorities, in particular, a standoff between the Bank of Korea (BOK) and the Financial Services Commission (FSC) over monetary policy and issuance authority has been a key source of delay.Photo by Lauren Seo on UnsplashDraft sets ‘major’ stablecoin requirementsAt the heart of the legislation is a new classification system for stablecoins. The government delivered its draft for the Digital Asset Basic Act to DPK’s Digital Asset Task Force, outlining its intention to classify won-denominated stablecoins exceeding a certain issuance threshold as “major digital payment tokens.” According to Blockmedia, citing sources familiar with the closed-door briefing to the task force, these assets would fall under a rigorous oversight framework developed in consultation with the central bank. Under the draft rules, issuers would be required to maintain 100% reserves, prohibited from making interest payments to holders, and obliged to submit detailed issuance plans to the FSC. Foreign-issued stablecoins would only be permitted to circulate domestically if the issuer establishes a local branch. Although the government ultimately submitted its draft to the DPK, the delivery was delayed by two days, missing the Dec. 10 deadline set by the party. Officials attributed the postponement to unresolved interagency disagreements. The central bank had argued that any issuance should require unanimous approval from all relevant agencies, including itself, but the government agreed to involve the bank only when a token is designated as “major.” The Bank of Korea continues to advocate for a bank-led consortium issuance model, highlighting the coordination challenges that have complicated the bill’s preparation. Supply thresholds emerge as fault lineCritics warn that the proposed regulations could inadvertently tilt the market against domestic innovation. Analysts argue that if the threshold for the "major" designation is set too low, new won-based issuers may face compliance costs that could undermine their business viability before they reach meaningful scale. They added that setting the bar for entrenched dollar-backed issuers such as USDT and USDC is also complex, given that their combined global issuance already exceeds $250 billion. Market participants said concerns about triggering the “major” designation could prompt Korean issuers to cap supply to avoid heightened scrutiny, effectively stifling growth from the outset. Despite these concerns, political will to close the policy vacuum is hardening. The DPK intends to move the legislation forward on its own timetable, incorporating the government’s input but steering the process through parliament. Lawmaker Kang emphasized that while numerous issues remain, the task force aims to narrow the debate to a few essential questions before the bill’s planned introduction in January. Industry representatives have largely welcomed the clearer timeline, viewing the move as a necessary step to reduce uncertainty as the global crypto sector comes under more formal regulatory oversight. 

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