Analysis: Bitcoin has not yet bottomed

The premium on Bitcoin CME futures has narrowed, but the market has not yet entered backwardation—a state where futures prices fall below spot prices, a phenomenon seen at previous market bottoms. According to CryptoQuant, CME futures with longer maturities continue to maintain a higher price than the spot market. However, the price difference across maturities is small, resulting in a relatively flat curve. During the market bottoms of 2018 and 2022, futures prices were lower than spot, and the basis for long-term contracts fell even further. The current data suggests the market has not yet entered a capitulation phase.