BTC could fall to $10K in worst-case scenario, analysis warns

Bitcoin could fall as low as $10,000 in a worst-case scenario, according to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan posted on CryptoQuant. The research firm noted that the current price structure relies heavily on derivatives rather than spot demand, with open interest on CME Bitcoin futures concentrated in 18,000 to 20,000 BTC of short-term leveraged positions. This setup could lead to a cascade of liquidations and selling pressure during a stress event as traders close positions instead of rolling them over. XWIN Research Japan outlined several potential outcomes: a drop to $50,000 (-25% to -30%) in a moderate stress scenario, and a fall to the $20,000-$30,000 range (-60% to -70%) if spot ETF outflows and weak spot demand continue. In an extreme situation, such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or an all-out war, a sharp contraction in global liquidity could send BTC to $10,000 (-80%) amid a stock market decline of over 30% and oil prices between $150 and $200.