Analysis: Bond market's hawkish turn suggests BTC bottom may come in October

The bond market is signaling the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, creating a negative environment for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC), according to an analysis by CoinDesk. The outlet noted that the spread between U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has fallen to 28 basis points (0.28 percentage points), its lowest level since April 2025. This signifies a deepening of the yield curve flattening phenomenon. While the market had priced in potential rate cuts at the start of the year, causing the yield curve to steepen, the trend has recently reversed. Consequently, even with the Fed holding its benchmark rate steady, future rate expectations have increased, potentially making it difficult for the Bitcoin bull market to resume. The analysis suggests this trend is consistent with the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle theory, indicating that a market bottom could form around October of this year.