BTC sell-off risk grows on break below $48K-$56K range

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin (BTC) faces a growing risk of a 2022-style capitulation sell-off if it falls below the $48,000-$56,000 range. He noted that the 90-day moving average of BTC's Net Realized Profit & Loss turned negative in late January and has failed to recover, currently sitting at -$203.2 million, which indicates sustained selling at a loss. Adler pointed out that the average purchase prices for several large investor cohorts remain in profitable territory: $48,100 for those holding over 10,000 BTC, $47,800 for the 10-100 BTC group, and $56,500 for the 1,000-10,000 BTC group. However, the 100-1,000 BTC cohort has an average purchase price of $65,700, which is above the current price. Adler stated that recent net realized losses are primarily driven by selling from this group. He added that a recovery in the Net Realized Profit & Loss metric to above zero would signal a weakening of this loss-driven selling.