Asia losing prediction market lead to West on regulatory delays, says report

Asia is ceding its leadership in the burgeoning prediction market to the West due to delays in regulatory discussions, according to a report by Asian Web3 research and consulting firm Tiger Research. The firm noted that while the prediction market has grown into a mainstream industry with $14 billion in monthly trading volume, Asia's passive approach is resulting in capital outflow, a loss of information sovereignty, and a lack of user protection as Western countries move to bring the sector into their regulatory folds. Tiger Research pointed to Meta's "Arena" project as evidence that major tech companies are taking notice of the sector. The report described prediction markets as having a simple structure where contracts settle at $1 if an event occurs and $0 if it does not, with trading prices functioning as real-time probabilities. Because participants risk losses for incorrect predictions, a level of trust is established in the information they provide. The challenge for Asia is not to ban these markets but to find ways to responsibly utilize data within a regulatory framework, the firm argued, adding that avoiding the discussion itself is tantamount to surrendering leadership.