BTC to stay range-bound until US real interest rates decline, says QCP

Bitcoin is expected to remain in a trading range during the third quarter as long as U.S. real interest rates remain high, according to a report from QCP Capital. The firm noted that when investors can earn real returns from cash and short-term government bonds, there is less incentive to hold non-yielding assets like BTC purely as a store of value. QCP Capital diagnosed that Bitcoin is currently caught between defensive assets like precious metals and high-beta assets such as AI and semiconductor stocks, failing to act as a hedge or join the AI rally. The report suggested that a decline in real rates, increased ETF inflows, and regulatory progress could trigger a rally. However, it also warned that if AI-driven stocks weaken before crypto-native demand recovers, BTC could be sold off like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. QCP Capital added that continued net purchases by publicly traded companies like Strategy and stable ETF inflows could serve as a buffer in the third quarter. Conversely, a slowdown in corporate buying, a shrinking mNAV premium, or declining cash reserves would be early signs of stress.