Wintermute: BTC is past the worst, but a trend reversal is not yet confirmed

Crypto market maker Wintermute has assessed that while Bitcoin has held the $62,000 support line despite negative factors like U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict and Strategy's BTC sales, a full recovery is not yet confirmed. The firm noted that the eight-week streak of outflows from spot BTC ETFs has finally reversed into inflows. According to Wintermute, the market had been watching for two preconditions for a recovery: a stable market structure that avoids cascading liquidations amid bad news, and an improvement in spot ETF flows, both of which have now been met. The fact that Strategy's BTC sales had almost no impact on the market is also seen as a positive sign. However, Wintermute believes that while the downtrend has halted, it is difficult to say the market has entered a recovery phase. Key variables to watch include the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), whether BTC ETF inflows continue, and the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz. A genuine recovery could be triggered by a low CPI, sustained ETF inflows, and progress on the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act. Conversely, a higher-than-expected CPI could put the $62,000 and subsequently $60,000 support levels to the test again. Wintermute concluded that the most important change compared to the last two months is that the crypto market has begun to react to improvements in its own conditions, rather than being solely driven by macroeconomic variables.