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BofA: August-October is typically the S&P 500’s weakest stretch; gold gains

July 27, 2026, 10:30 AM
August through October has historically been the weakest stretch of the year for U.S. stocks, with safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys tending to outperform during that period, according to Bank of America head of technical strategy Paul Ciana. Ciana said the S&P 500’s average return from August to October since 1928 was -0.02%, essentially flat, and its average drawdown of 7.35% was the largest among any three-month period. He added that this does not signal the end of the long-term uptrend, while November through January has traditionally been a strong period, with average gains of 3.54%.

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