TD Cowen sees 60% chance Senate cloture vote on CLARITY Act will fail

TD Cowen sees a 60% chance that a Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, which would determine whether the bill advances to floor debate, will fail, The Block reported. According to the report, the investment bank’s other scenarios include a 20% chance that the cloture vote passes while allowing Democrats to offer an alternative proposal in the form of an amendment, a 15% chance that debate on the bill is postponed until after the election, and a 5% chance that the bill passes before the election. TD Cowen said it is watching how Republicans respond to a Democratic alternative focused on ethics rules related to President Donald Trump’s family and added that the stance of centrist Democratic senators is another key variable. The firm said it is paying particularly close attention to Senator Mark Warner’s position.