Fed dot plot lifts 2026 year-end rate outlook to 4.1% from 3.8%

The median projection in the Federal Reserve’s dot plot showed the federal funds rate outlook for the end of 2026 was raised to 4.1% from 3.8% in June, signaling expectations for one additional rate hike this year. The detailed breakdown showed 12 of 18 policymakers expect one more 25-basis-point rate increase this year, while four expect two more hikes and two expect no further increases.