Quantum threat tracker points to March 8, 2028, for possible Bitcoin break

Quantum Doomsday Clock, a platform that tracks quantum computing risks, has identified March 8, 2028, as the earliest potential date for quantum computers to break Bitcoin encryption and trigger a broader crypto collapse. The platform measures when Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, or ECDSA, could be compromised based on advances in quantum computing. It warned that high-performance quantum computers could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from Bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures. The platform said the hardware threat is becoming more concrete as commercialization accelerates, citing a $2 billion investment by the U.S. government this year and IonQ’s buildout of a 256-qubit system tied to Nvidia. It also estimates 2029 as the point when the international financial system and the internet could face a systemic collapse, with government and military systems projected to fall in 2030.