Macro pressure drives cross-asset deleveraging, with volatility seen rising this week

QCP Capital said broad deleveraging is emerging across assets as global financial markets and the dollar index fall, pointing to a scramble for cash rather than a typical flight to safe-haven assets. The firm cited geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and concerns over energy markets as the main drivers. QCP said the U.S. formally rejected ceasefire terms over the weekend tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting fears of energy supply disruptions and sending Brent crude sharply higher. It added that volatility is likely to increase this week as key U.S. economic data, including the PCE price index and the nonfarm payrolls report, are due for release. The firm also said short-term implied volatility has risen in the crypto options market as sensitivity grows to the possibility of further monetary policy adjustments following the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike, while spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows have shown signs of slowing. If institutional inflows also weaken, Bitcoin could retest existing support levels, with its next direction likely to depend heavily on geopolitical developments and this week’s U.S. economic data.