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Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are falling while risk appetite is strengthening amid growing optimism that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and normalize crude oil shipments is imminent. WTI crude oil plunged more than 5% in early trading on May 25, while risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and the South African rand gained against the U.S. dollar. S&P 500 futures also rose, after the index closed near an all-time high on May 23. A senior U.S. official said on May 25 that the United States and Iran are close to an agreement on reopening the strait, but noted that negotiations on key wording are ongoing and final approval could take several days. In contrast, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency warned that the draft agreement could collapse, alleging the U.S. is creating obstacles on key provisions, including Iran's demand to unfreeze its assets. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG's Sydney office, wrote in a client report that the market's upward momentum from last Friday appears set to continue. He added that while a deal could still fall through, financial markets currently seem inclined to trust the reports.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy (MSTR), stated that he expects Bitcoin's returns to outperform the S&P 500, projecting 30% growth. He explained that converting BTC investment returns into an 11.5% tax-deferred credit dividend offers higher yields than traditional money market products. Saylor also predicted that credit funds within the market will absorb most of the BTC supply held by miners. Furthermore, he noted that tokenization can create free capital markets, break banking monopolies, and increase the velocity of asset circulation.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its June meeting is 97.3%, while the chance of a 25 bp hike is 2.7%. For the July meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 84.8%. The cumulative probability of a 25 bp increase by then is 14.8%, with the chance of a cumulative 50 bp hike at 0.3%.

Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the U.S. White House National Economic Council (NEC), said an agreement between the United States and Iran would cause a sharp drop in energy prices, creating room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Hassett stated that he expects energy prices to plummet if a deal is reached, which would give the Fed sufficient space to take appropriate action and lower rates. While emphasizing his respect for the Fed's independence, Hassett praised Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who was sworn into office on May 23. His comments come as rising U.S. fuel prices, driven by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, are creating a political burden for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections. Hassett diagnosed that the recent acceleration in inflation has been primarily triggered by energy prices. He noted that while energy prices are a clear concern in recent data releases, core inflation has remained almost unchanged, adding that a drop in energy prices could even lead to negative inflation.

Major exchanges have seen $209 million worth of futures liquidated in the past hour. In the past 24 hours, $814 million worth of futures have been liquidated.

Whale Alert reported that 308,269,342 USDT has been transferred from OKX to an unknown wallet. The transaction is valued at about $308 million.

According to CoinNess market monitoring, BTC has risen above $77,000. BTC is trading at $77,091.71 on the Binance USDT market.

Major exchanges have seen $104 million worth of futures liquidated in the past hour. In the past 24 hours, $702 million worth of futures have been liquidated.

According to CoinNess market monitoring, BTC has risen above $76,000. BTC is trading at $76,005.57 on the Binance USDT market.

According to the Financial Times (FT), mediators said the U.S. and Iran are close to an agreement to extend their ceasefire for 60 days.

Hyperliquid's native token HYPE and AI-related cryptocurrencies could lead the next altcoin season as risk appetite shows signs of recovery in the crypto market, according to an analysis. Prominent crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the recent bullish trend in HYPE and growing interest in AI cryptocurrencies suggest that market risk-on sentiment is reviving. He added that Hyperliquid is strengthening the on-chain asset tokenization trend by expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and pre-IPO assets. Van de Poppe believes HYPE could surpass $100 if market sentiment continues to improve, also stating that NEAR and Bittensor (TAO) are significantly undervalued in the AI sector.

Iran and the United States are in the final stages of confirming a memorandum of understanding (MOU), Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei announced today, according to the Xinhua News Agency. He stated that after weeks of dialogue, the positions of both sides have progressed toward greater alignment.

Wall Street is quietly accumulating Bitcoin (BTC), Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said during an appearance on the New Era Finance podcast. He noted that the first quarter of this year was the most successful in crypto history. Despite sluggish price action for BTC, Seyffart observed strong demand for spot BTC ETFs from asset managers. He pointed out that since the ETFs launched, MicroStrategy has continued to buy BTC while retail investors have been selling, which indicates a shift in market leadership toward institutional players. The crypto market, he explained, grew with a focus on retail investors first, unlike other asset classes, and institutions are now beginning to take control. Seyffart added that the traditional four-year cycle may no longer be as significant and that the upward structure for BTC will likely remain intact as long as overall market confidence is maintained.

Crypto asset manager Grayscale has praised Sui's (SUI) introduction of a gasless stablecoin transfer feature. In a post on X, Grayscale said that stablecoins are becoming core financial infrastructure and that networks removing friction from payments will gain a competitive edge. The firm added that Sui has eliminated one of the most significant friction points. The comments follow Sui's full implementation of the gasless stablecoin transfer feature on its mainnet.

A spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry said a nuclear agreement is "very far, yet very close," adding that U.S. officials are constantly changing their positions, Iranian state TV reported.

President Donald Trump has decided against formally ordering a new military strike on Iran for now, opting instead to allow more time for diplomatic negotiations, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing multiple U.S. officials. During a meeting with his national security team on May 22, President Trump was briefed on the ongoing dialogue with Iran and subsequently expressed his intention to grant additional time for the talks. However, he also made it clear that the option for a military attack remains reserved should the negotiations ultimately fail.

Fenwick & West, a law firm that represented FTX, has agreed to pay $54 million to settle a lawsuit related to customer losses, BeInCrypto reported. The settlement is subject to court approval before it is finalized. Plaintiffs alleged that Fenwick went beyond a simple advisory role and was involved in designing the structure that allowed for the misappropriation of customer funds between FTX and Alameda Research. This settlement is part of a secondary wave of legal battles following the FTX bankruptcy, and a separate $525 million lawsuit against Fenwick and some of its partners is still ongoing.

Hyperliquid is evolving beyond a simple decentralized exchange (DEX) into an on-chain "Wall Street platform," CryptoSlate reported. The price of HYPE recently surpassed $60, marking a year-to-date increase of over 120% and pushing its market capitalization past $15 billion. This performance contrasts with the bearish trends of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) during the same period. According to the report, Hyperliquid is expanding its institutional fund inflows by integrating brokerage, exchange, and custody functions into a single environment. The publication also noted that prediction market Polymarket currently gives HYPE an approximately 30% chance of reaching $100 by the end of the year.

Rising U.S. Treasury yields are weakening investor sentiment for high-risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC), according to a CoinDesk analysis. The outlet noted that the appeal of allocating funds to BTC is diminishing as government bond yields rise in the U.S. and other major countries. Additionally, geopolitical tensions related to Iran are stoking fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting some speculative capital to shift toward commodities such as crude oil, copper, and sulfur. This trend is reflected in continued outflows from U.S. spot BTC ETFs, which recorded approximately $1.26 billion in net outflows this week, marking the largest weekly withdrawal since January of this year. Combined with about $1 billion in outflows from the previous week, the cumulative net outflow over the past two weeks has surpassed $2.26 billion.

South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb announced it will temporarily suspend USDT withdrawals via the Tron network starting at 11:25 a.m. UTC today. The suspension is due to a system check on its Tether (USDT) wallets.

An early Ethereum holder, often referred to as an OG, purchased 3,942 ETH ($8.08 million) over the past 24 hours at an average price of $2,049, Lookonchain reported. The same address acquired 12,001 ETH 10 years ago from the Swiss cryptocurrency exchange Shapeshift at an average price of $7.58. Last year, the address sold ETH valued at $34.3 million at an average price of $2,856.

Iran's foreign minister has held a second meeting with Pakistan's army chief of staff, according to Iranian state TV. The meeting followed earlier discussions regarding a proposal from the Iranian side. Separately, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran.

A Chinese court has finalized a sentence of 12 years and seven months in prison for a man who stole and sold his acquaintance's Bitcoin. According to the People's Procuratorate of Changshan District in Fuzhou City, the man, identified as Lin, was asked by the victim, Wang, for help cashing out Bitcoin in late 2020. During the process, Lin secretly obtained the private key to Wang's crypto wallet from his computer and transferred four BTC to his own account. He then sold the assets, making an illicit profit of approximately 900,000 yuan (about $124,000). Wang discovered the missing assets in 2024 and reported the theft, leading to Lin's arrest. An appellate court upheld the original sentence, which also included a fine of 300,000 yuan (about $41,000).

Jeffrey Huang, a well-known Taiwanese celebrity and crypto whale, has lost approximately $33 million on his ETH futures investments. He recently closed most of his 25x leveraged ETH long position, with some of his holdings being forcibly liquidated. His remaining Ethereum balance is now around 1,700 ETH.

Bitcoin's rally is losing its upward momentum, according to an analysis by on-chain analyst XWIN Japan Research. In a contribution to CryptoQuant, the firm argued that while BTC rebounded sharply from its April low to briefly recover to $82,000, the rise was driven more by speculative demand in the futures market than by actual spot buying. "One of the most important signals is that BTC faced resistance near its 200-day moving average of around $82,400," the analysis stated. "This is similar to the pattern in March 2022, when BTC also saw a strong rebound, met resistance in the same range, and then reversed into a downtrend." The firm added that BTC demand has shrunk as buying pressure from futures weakened sharply following the liquidation of long positions above the $80,000 level. Simultaneously, growth in spot demand has slowed, with spot BTC ETFs recording consecutive net outflows after seeing large net inflows earlier this month. "If a correction continues, the $70,000 area is the key support line," XWIN Japan Research concluded.