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US intelligence finds Iran's nuclear weapon timeline unchanged since last summer

May 04, 2026, 9:20 PM
The timeframe for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has remained unchanged since last summer, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment. At that time, analysts estimated that joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes had delayed Iran's nuclear development timeline by up to one year, three sources said. The unchanged timeline suggests that effectively halting Iran's nuclear program may require destroying or removing its remaining stockpiles of highly enriched uranium (HEU). According to the sources, before a 12-day conflict in June of last year, U.S. intelligence had concluded Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium and build a nuclear warhead within three to six months. Following the airstrikes, this estimate was revised to approximately nine months to a year.
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