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Victory Securities granted approval for retail crypto trading in Hong KongHong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has given the green light to Victory Securities, a well established investment firm headquartered in the Chinese autonomous territory, for retail virtual asset trading.Photo by Carlos Alberto Gómez Iñiguez on UnsplashFirst licensed corporationThe license will allow the investment firm to expand its crypto trading and advisory services to retail investors. The publicly traded company announced its crypto licensing achievement via a press release published to its website on Friday. In that statement, the company expressed the hope that “by connecting traditional finance with virtual assets, customers can configure assets in a flexible and convenient way, and [we] can provide general investors with investment advice on virtual assets and publish relevant research reports.”This approval marks Victory Securities as the first licensed corporation in Hong Kong to offer such services to the retail market, joining the ranks of already approved firms like HashKey Exchange and OSL Digital Securities. It builds upon previous licensing approval that the company received from the SFC to offer a full range of trading and advisory services in respect of virtual assets to institutional clients in November 2022.The move reflects Hong Kong’s commitment to crypto regulation, as earlier this year, the region established a framework enabling the provision of crypto services to retail clients. This development positions Hong Kong as a key player in the Asian crypto market, where firms seem to be receiving more regulatory clarity compared to their counterparts in the United States. The regulatory initiative gains significance in light of the recent JPEX scandal, involving an alleged HK$1.6 billion ($204 million) fraud.Bringing retail into cryptoVictory Securities, currently listed as an applicant on the SFC’s recently published roster of virtual asset trading firms, is navigating this regulatory landscape to bring retail investors into the crypto market. In parallel, HashKey Group, another Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency firm, has launched the city’s first SFC-approved trading app since the JPEX incident. HashKey Exchange’s app, boasting “full mobile trading capabilities,” became operational this month, a notable progression given its prior limitation to professional investors.Through HashKey’s app, local traders can now engage in bitcoin and ether transactions using funds from their Hong Kong or U.S. dollar bank accounts. In addition to pioneering retail crypto trading, HashKey has introduced its crypto over-the-counter (OTC) trading service, HashKey Brokerage, aligning with local securities regulations and the recently implemented cryptocurrency regulatory framework by the SFC.The Hong Kong regulator is also believed to be currently weighing up whether to allow retail investors the ability to access spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite these advancements, the SFC maintains restrictions on retail traders engaging in stablecoin transactions until new regulatory arrangements are established. This decision follows the SFC’s consultation paper on regulating crypto activities, emphasizing the need to address risks associated with stablecoins and their regulation.The regulator aims to ensure appropriate management of stablecoin reserves to maintain price stability and safeguard investors’ redemption rights, underscoring the potential significant implications for stablecoin stability if these risks are not effectively managed.As Hong Kong solidifies its position in the evolving crypto landscape, Victory Securities’ approval signifies yet another milestone in the region’s journey toward fostering a regulated and inclusive crypto market for retail investors.

SKYPlay and 3D Factory join forces to bring Web3 to everyday lifeSKYPlay, a Seoul-based blockchain gaming platform, announced Monday (local time) that it has signed a business agreement with 3D Factory to create content that integrates Web3 into everyday life, thus facilitating the rapid expansion of Web3 technology.Photo by Medienstürmer on UnsplashSynergizing Web3 realmsThrough this business agreement, SKYPlay aims to combine its Web3 capabilities in gaming and art with 3D Factory’s Web3 capabilities in sports. The two enterprises will ultimately establish a technological foundation for accelerating the integration of Web3 into society and expanding its uses.Pioneering paths in gaming, sports and moreEstablished in 2021, SKYPlay is a Play-to-Earn (P2E) platform that offers several games and related services, including a gaming community and forum, to some 300,000 users. Previously, the company secured large-scale investments worth $3 million and $10 million from Hong Kong-based startup accelerator 1st Soul Group and U.S.-based investment group LDA Capital, respectively. It is also expected to participate in an outer space mission led by NASA and SpaceX through a partnership with Web3 community BitBasel.3D Factory is a global blockchain-based meta platform that provides a range of services like gaming, NFT sales and metaverse memberships. Notably, it is deeply engaged with Spanish soccer. Having signed an NFT sponsorship agreement with the Spanish Football Federation (RFEF) in November last year, 3D Factory was able to create its own metaverse. This partnership involves not only the Spanish national team but also club teams in the Copa del Rey and Super Cup competitions, featuring some of the world’s biggest football teams like Real Madrid FC and FC Barcelona.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.