Hong Kong Authorities Unite to Form Crypto-Centric Taskforce

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

Web3 metaverse and NFT platform CarrieVerse has secured funding from the JB Digital Asset Investment Fund 1 operated by JB Investment, the corporate venture capital arm of JB Financial Group, and Ecrux Venture Partners. The total value of the investment was not disclosed, according to Korean news outlet TechM. "The injection of new capital is a breath of fresh air after a slow crypto winter," said David Yoon, CEO of CarrieVerse. "With aggressive business and marketing tactics, we will bridge the gap between Web2 and Web3, helping to expand and popularize the Web3 market."Photo by Precondo CA on UnsplashThriving Web3 metaverseCarrieVerse is a Web3 metaverse available in various regions, including 15 Asian countries. The platform surpassed one million pre-registrations prior to its launch and also recorded 10,000 visitors in a single day. It was also revealed that it is one of the most popular platforms in Thailand, where it recently launched.  CarrieVerse is also the base hub for the card strategy role-playing game (RPG) SuperKola Tactics and the blockchain gaming platform Cling. Its native governance token, CVTX, has been listed on several exchanges like BingX and Bitget. Notably, CarrieVerse was also recently selected to join the UAE’s Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) to establish a local subsidiary that will serve as a hub to expand the company’s global Web3 ecosystem. Reasons and expectationsJB Investment cited CarrieVerse's global business network and Web3 capabilities as the reason for providing the funding. Ecrux Venture Partners, on the other hand, aims to create synergies between IP companies and the metaverse through CarrieVerse’s projects. Ecrux is a new venture capital firm that focuses on discovering companies that can commercialize content-based IP such as animated characters.  

Lotte’s NFT marketplace partners with upcycling brand NiUl for membership NFTsLotte Data Communication, an affiliate of South Korean retail conglomerate Lotte Group, issued a press release on Wednesday (local time) to reveal that its NFT marketplace, Kottonseed, has issued new non-fungible tokens (NFTs) in partnership with upcycling brand NiUl whose name stands for “Nothing is Useless.”Photo by MSA-90 on PixabayPlastic lids to stylish keychainsNiUl recycles discarded plastic lids, transforming them into vibrant, stylish key ring pendants known as NiUl rings. NiUl has successfully sold over 2,000 pendants across a mix of online and offline platforms, with 300 kilograms of plastic lids donated by supporters. In a strategic move to broaden its reach, the company has been partnering with diverse firms and ramping up its donation initiatives, targeting environment and fashion-conscious millennials and Generation Z consumers.In their latest venture with Kottonseed, these pendants have been digitized into membership NFTs, which come with a suite of benefits like a special edition rope strap and discounts on products. Some lucky members may even get the opportunity to be involved in creating a NiUl ring. These membership NFTs are being released in limited numbers and are up for grabs starting today on NiUl’s page on Smart Store, an e-commerce platform of popular search engine Naver.NFTs in five colorsThe NFTs are offered in five distinct colors, each named after the sky’s varying appearances: “Post-rain Clear,” “Blue Sky,” “Sunset,” “Aurora” and “Night Sky.”A spokesperson for Lotte Data Communication expressed that the company sees great value in participating in upcycling initiatives with NiUl through their NFT marketplace, Kottonseed. They are keen on pursuing enjoyable and varied collaborations to support NiUl’s socially beneficial endeavors. Moreover, Lotte is actively exploring ways in which NFTs can contribute to environmental, social and governance (ESG) objectives.