Hong Kong’s Development as Crypto Hub May Soften Chinese Stance on Crypto

In less than a year since Hong Kong regulators gave the green light to crypto exchanges, there's been a noticeable surge of interest among traditional financial institutions and brokerages eager to secure their digital asset licenses for trading.Photo by Florian Wehde on UnsplashTiger BrokersTiger Brokers, a Beijing-headquartered one-stop trading brokerage with nine million international customers, offers one such example. The firm upgraded its Type 1 Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission (SFC) license in January to include crypto trading for professional investors and financial institutions based in Hong Kong. The move followed an uptick in interest from mainland China-based firms in Q4, 2023.In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, John Fei Zeng, the CFO and director of Tiger Brokers, revealed that the firm currently boasts 865,500 funded accounts in Hong Kong, managing $18.9 billion in assets. Zeng stated: "Residents of Hong Kong will be able to trade virtual assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside stocks, options, futures, funds, and ETFs [Through Tiger Trade]." He explained that as part of the firm's expansion plans, additional digital assets will be evaluated. HKMA guidance on crypto custodyAs a testament to the regulatory clarity that has attracted firms like Tiger Brokers, on Tuesday Hong Kong's central bank issued guidance for authorized institutions interested in offering custody services for digital assets. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) outlined comprehensive risk assessment procedures and emphasized the importance of robust policies, oversight, and resource allocation to manage custodial activities effectively. Notably, the HKMA's guidance seeks to address concerns stemming from recent industry mishaps, including the collapse of FTX, Terra and Three Arrows Capital (3AC), by mandating stringent safeguards to protect clients' digital assets from theft, fraud or misappropriation. Key requirements include independent systems audits, secure storage practices and transparent record-keeping, underscoring the regulator's commitment to fostering trust and stability in the digital asset ecosystem. Victory SecuritiesIn a similar move to that of Tiger Brokers, Victory Securities, another Hong Kong brokerage, secured a license from the SFC last November to offer crypto trading services for retail investors. The company reported a significant surge in virtual asset transactions and new customer acquisitions, prompting plans to introduce trading discounts to incentivize compliant and safe virtual asset trading services. Moreover, OSL, a licensed Hong Kong crypto exchange, joined forces with Interactive Brokers in November 2023, enabling the latter to offer bitcoin and ether trading to retail investors through its platform. Further underscoring the evolving regulatory landscape, crypto exchange Bybit submitted a retail trading license application in Hong Kong, indicative of the sector's continued growth and maturity. Nevertheless, navigating the regulatory framework isn't without its challenges. Web3 firms eyeing Hong Kong may need to invest up to $25 million in corporate infrastructure and compliance to secure licensing approval, reflecting the stringent requirements imposed by regulators. As Hong Kong continues to refine its regulatory framework and enhance investor protections, the stage is set for further collaboration between traditional financial institutions and emerging crypto players within the Chinese autonomous territory.

Shapella Upgrade to Have limited Impact on ETH’s Selling PressureThe Shapella upgrade on the Ethereum network scheduled to take place on Wednesday will only have a limited impact on the selling pressure on ETH, according to a report by the research center at Korean cryptocurrency exchange Korbit.©Pexels/JievaniShapella upgradeOne of the key features of the Shapella upgrade is to allow withdrawal of staked ETH. This upgrade follows September’s Merge upgrade that switched the Ethereum network’s consensus algorithm from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, significantly reducing electricity consumption.Impact on selling pressureTo predict the impact of the Shapella upgrade on the selling pressure on ETH, the analysts at Korbit Research calculated the amount of time it takes for all the ETH staked as of March 22 to be withdrawn. They believe this calculation is relevant because withdrawals of staked ETH could trigger bulk sales, potentially imposing a greater selling pressure on ETH.According to the findings, the daily sell volume for the first three days is expected to be 300,700 ETH, 0.254% of the circulating supply. This volume will gradually decrease to 43,000 ETH for the next six months and to 29,000 ETH for the following six months, each corresponding to 0.035% and 0.024% of the circulating supply, respectively.All in all, bulk selling of ETH is not likely, considering it will take about a year and five months for all the staked ETH to be withdrawn and that the amount of withdrawable ETH will stay relatively low for each period. Furthermore, since this analysis assumes an extreme case, the market will be able to effectively handle the volume over the six month to 18 month period.4 other reasonsIn addition, Korbit Research outlined four other aspects that limit the selling pressure on ETH.Firstly, there is some concern that the selling volume of ETH may increase due to unstaking resulting from the cessation of staking services at American crypto exchange Kraken. However, a decrease in the number of validators on the Ethereum network will raise the base reward. This may prompt those who unstaked ETH to stake them on other platforms, rather than selling them.Second, ETH locked up at liquidity staking protocols such as Lido Finance and Rocket Pool provide liquidity for representations of staked ETH. These platforms allow users to stake fewer than 32 ETH for rewards. According to a February Binance Research report, 57.7% of ETH stakers enjoy liquidity and rewards. Therefore, there may be a limited impetus to divest of staked ETH.Third, since only 41.1% of ETH stakers are seeing profits as of the time of writing the report, the remaining stakers would have to risk losses when withdrawing ETH. This suggests that those not yet seeing profits are more likely to keep ETH staked. Furthermore, Dune Analytics data shows that most of the ETH stakers with gains staked ETH when its price was relatively low, which indicates that they participated in staking in early days. Shivam Sharma, the author of the aforementioned Binance report, states that these ETH stakers are likely “some of the strongest Ethereum believers.”Lastly, despite the Shapella upgrade, ETH withdrawals at different staking pools may not be initiated immediately. This could limit the circulation of withdrawable ETH, which in turn would hinder the selling pressure on ETH.Macroeconomic factorsThe Korbit researchers concluded their paper with a note that the selling pressure on ETH will be more influenced by macroeconomic factors than technical factors. They added that a possible downturn in the overall economy and corrections in risky asset markets might lead investors to sell ETH.

Japanese Exchanges Canvas Regulator to Permit 10x LeverageJapan’s cryptocurrency exchanges are advocating for looser regulations on margin trading, despite the global digital asset market crash experienced last year.According to a report published by Bloomberg on Monday, The Japan Virtual & Crypto Assets Exchange Association has revealed that many industry insiders are seeking leverage limits of four to 10 times for retail investors.Currently, customers are limited to doubling their exposure through borrowing. Genki Oda, the Vice Chairman of the association, believes that relaxing the leverage rule could enhance Japan’s appeal to crypto and blockchain companies, thereby stimulating increased trading activity.Photo by Su San Lee on UnsplashOngoing discussionJapanese digital asset exchanges are currently engaged in discussions to establish a consensus on the recommended leverage limit. They are planning to present their proposal to the Financial Services Agency (FSA) as early as next month.While Japan has made some efforts to ease certain cryptocurrency regulations, such as token listing and taxation, the overall regulatory environment is considered strict. The FSA expects crypto firms to provide solid justifications for loosening margin trading caps, demonstrating how it would contribute to the government’s objective of expanding blockchain-based industries. However, the agency remains open to discussions with digital asset businesses on the matter.Plummeting trade volumesPreviously, Japanese crypto platforms offered leverage up to 25 times, resulting in annual margin trading volumes of approximately $500 billion in 2020 and 2021. However, after the FSA imposed a limit of two times to curb excessive speculation and protect investors from amplified losses, trading volumes plummeted by 75% in 2022.In other parts of the world, digital asset exchanges typically offer spot margin trading with leverage ranging from five to 10 times the initial deposit, depending on local regulations. Some platforms even offer more aggressive lending options, often associated with speculative behavior that can generate waves of greed and fear within the crypto market.Oda argues that digital asset volatility has decreased since 2020 and asserts that Japanese exchanges are well-prepared to assist investors in managing the risks associated with margin trading positions. However, any relaxation of leverage rules is not expected to occur before 2024.Leverage dangersLast year’s global cryptocurrency downturn exposed risky practices and resulted in numerous bankruptcies. Regulators worldwide have responded by implementing new rules and regulations that address the lessons learned. While leverage might be in the interests of the exchange operators, many industry commentators have warned that leverage brings about market weakness.Caitlin Long, Founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, has been one such commentator, warning that massive leverage “built an industry of insolvent intermediaries” on a “foundation of sand”. It’s commonly believed that leverage leads to unsustainable market bubbles rather than iterative organic market growth.In 2022, an index tracking the top 100 cryptocurrencies partially recovered, showing a 33% increase since the beginning of this year. However, the market still faces challenges, as institutional and individual investors have exited, leading to reduced liquidity and lower expectations for price volatility in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.