Legislator Invites Coinbase to Set Up Shop in Hong Kong

The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), the financial regulatory agency of the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), a special economic zone, has approved two stablecoins under its crypto regulatory framework. The two stablecoins, USD Coin (USDC) and EURC, are both issued by blockchain-focused financial services firm Circle. While USDC is a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, EURC is a euro-backed stablecoin. In a press release published on the Circle website on Feb. 24, the company announced details regarding the approval. The stablecoins are the first to be recognized and approved by the DFSA.Photo by Christoph Schulz on UnsplashStablecoin integrationThe development means that firms based in the DIFC are now free to integrate either stablecoin into digital asset applications and products focused on areas such as payments and treasury management. A number of Circle executives took to social media to comment on the development. Circle Co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire outlined on X that the approval means that financial institutions in Dubai “are now able to transact in markets with USDC and EURC.” In legally recognizing the two stablecoins, Allaire pointed out that the DFSA had joined regulators in the European Union (EU) and Canada.  Last Summer, Allaire announced that Circle’s stablecoins complied with the EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulation. In December, Circle became the first stablecoin issuer to meet Canadian listing regulations. Dante Disparte, Circle’s chief strategy officer and head of global policy, pointed out that a trend is emerging requiring the pre-clearing of stablecoins prior to them entering into circulation or gaining regulatory approval. “In always-on finance, reciprocity is key,” he added.  Meanwhile, the firm’s EU Strategy & Policy Director, Patrick Hansen, underscored the significance of the approval. Hansen pointed to the fact that the DIFC is home to 6,000 registered entities, including 800 authorized financial firms. An ‘edge’ over TetherEugene Cheung, Chief Institutional Business Officer at Hong Kong-based digital asset platform OSL, said that the approval was “massive for institutional adoption,” while giving Circle an “edge” over Tether within the $157 billion stablecoin market. While Circle has always taken a regulatory-compliant approach, competitor Tether has struggled with compliance. In Europe, 10 companies have been approved to issue stablecoins under MiCA regulations, but Tether is not among them. This has led to a number of exchanges delisting Tether’s USDT in Europe. The DIFC was first established in 2004. The economic free-zone caters to firms operating within the Middle East, South Asian and African regions. The number of businesses registered within the free zone has increased by 25% since 2023. In November 2022, the DIFC recognized Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC). The following year, it added Toncoin (TON) and Ripple’s XRP, together with ZETA, the native token of the ZetaChain network. In 2024, the DFSA amended its crypto regulations to allow foreign funds to invest in recognized crypto tokens, while enabling domestic qualified investor funds to invest in unrecognized tokens.Although the regulatory approach taken by the authorities in Dubai accommodates stablecoins, algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited.

NS Studio and Factor Labs to Enhance Military Security with Blockchain TechnologyKorean game developer NS Studio announced on Thursday its collaborative research effort with blockchain-based security solutions company Factor Labs to boost the security system of its specialized virtual reality simulator used in military training centers and multinational security firms.Photo by Filip Andrejevic on UnsplashProtecting special combat forcesThe two companies signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to develop a blockchain-based security system to be integrated into military training equipment that aims to safeguard the identity and behavioral data of special combat forces. Factor Labs’ security technology and blockchain expertise will be integrated into NS Studio’s military training programs, facilitating safer training sessions.“Given the fact that special combat forces are important assets whose identities are considered national secrets, we want to amp up the security of the simulation programs that keep a record of their identities and behavioral patterns using blockchain technology,” the two companies said in a joint statement.“We have begun developing the necessary technology for this project and are preparing to implement the security program starting in the latter half of this year.”Blockchain’s role in military securityThis collaboration underscores the increasing role of cutting-edge technologies like blockchain in ensuring the security and privacy of sensitive data not just in the financial context but also in military and security contexts. The combined efforts of NS Studio and Factor Labs are poised to contribute to the advancement of secure training simulations for special operations personnel.

Korean Crypto Exchange Presents Bitcoin Forecasts for Three ScenariosRecently, concerns over a potential US default have heightened due to the ongoing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress regarding the necessity of increasing the debt ceiling. Democrats, along with the Biden administration, advocate for authorizing additional debt, while Republicans propose spending cuts.Considering the historical patterns observed in the US and the inherently political nature of this matter, it is improbable that the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling raise will endure for an extended period. In the past, when faced with a similar situation in 2011, the debt ceiling was ultimately approved despite significant political divisions. Particularly with upcoming elections next year and escalating concerns of an economic downturn, it is likely that a resolution to the debt ceiling issue will be reached soon.In light of these circumstances, the economic research institute at one of South Korea’s major crypto exchanges Bithumb released a report that outlines three distinct scenarios depicting the potential unfolding of the debt ceiling issue in the US. Additionally, it has offered insights into the potential implications for Bitcoin under each scenario.Photo by Shubham’s Web3 on UnsplashBipartisan agreement to increase the debt ceilingIn the scenario where the debt ceiling is promptly raised as a result of a significant bipartisan agreement, the US is anticipated to adopt an expansionary fiscal policy by issuing government bonds to prevent a default. If a debt ceiling deal is reached, it is projected that short-term bond issuance will reach a net amount of $1.4 trillion by the end of the year. There is also a growing consensus that medium- and long-term bond issuance may commence in the third quarter. Additionally, the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as the second half of this year entered the equation. In the long term, this could potentially lead to a depreciation of the dollar as market liquidity increases, thereby weakening the currency. It is worth noting that historically, the value of Bitcoin tended to go up when market liquidity rises.Debt ceiling disagreement and delayed negotiationsAnother scenario entails the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement and a subsequent delay in approving a raise to the debt ceiling. Should the debt ceiling not be raised in a timely manner, the US would potentially encounter an unparalleled default on its debt obligations. This default could trigger a severe credit crunch, resulting from international credit downgrades and a weakened global standing for the US. Such circumstances would further escalate the risk of an economic crisis.As the negotiations on the debt limit continue to be delayed, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty in both Treasury issuance and secondary markets. This uncertainty poses risks to money market funds (MMFs) that hold a significant portion of short-term Treasuries, potentially resulting in losses. Consequently, there could be a shift towards reverse repo (RRP) transactions as investors seek alternative avenues. In fact, Treasury liquidity has recently exhibited signs of deterioration, with MMFs and RRPs garnering considerable attention in the market.Heightened concerns regarding short-term Treasuries could lead to a higher volume of reverse repo trades compared to repo trades. Repo transactions use Treasuries as collateral, whereas reverse repo transactions involve depositing funds with the Fed or lending money to the Fed in exchange for collateral, which often includes Treasuries, thereby earning interest. In such a scenario, market liquidity could become trapped in the Fed, potentially rekindling risks within the banking system.Given their sensitivity to liquidity conditions, crypto markets are anticipated to experience a temporary decline. However, Bitcoin has exhibited a historical pattern of appreciating in value as an alternative to the US banking system, especially during instances of small and medium-sized bank failures. In the event of prolonged negotiations and an escalating risk of a US default, the demand for safe-haven assets like Bitcoin might surge. As a result, Bitcoin could gain favorability as investors seek refuge in alternative assets amidst uncertain market conditions.Linking debt ceiling increase to spending reductionThe last scenario involves a conditional agreement accompanied by measures aimed at reducing the deficit, as proposed by Republicans. Given the longstanding concerns surrounding excessive US deficits, any agreement to raise the debt ceiling would likely be contingent upon fiscal consolidation and spending cuts. Notably, as of March 31, 2023, the US federal deficit is approximately 8% of GDP, a figure comparable to the 8.3% average observed in 2011 when the possibility of a US default reached its peak.While fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, unless the US significantly increases tax revenues, an increase in the debt ceiling may be negotiated at the expense of significant cuts to the national budget. In such a case, the US economy would inevitably experience the adverse effects of reduced government spending.The Republican party has put forth a demand of $4.8 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. This figure translates to an average of $480 billion per year or approximately 1.8% of the current year’s GDP (as of May). However, it is important to note that in the medium to long term, reductions in government spending without complementary expansionary monetary policies have the potential to accelerate GDP decline. If Congress agrees to cuts in government spending, it could increase the probability of the Fed swiftly reversing its tightening policy. Unless the Fed halts its tightening measures, the likelihood of a US recession may become more pronounced.If the Fed decides to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated in response to the Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts, Bitcoin, which is known to be more responsive to long-term monetary policy, might be able to overcome the short-term downturn and experience an upward trend.The authors contend that at present, market attention is primarily directed towards the matter of raising the debt ceiling, taking into account the potential risks of a US default and the possibility of a bond rating downgrade. However, they believe it is unlikely that US politicians will make radical decisions in the run-up to next year’s presidential election.While the issue of raising the debt ceiling will have a short-term impact, the report argues that the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price in the medium to long term will be the Fed’s monetary policy and the occurrence of Bitcoin’s halving event.It is important to note that there is a time lag between the end of the Fed’s tightening measures and the halving of Bitcoin. In the short term, the price trajectory of Bitcoin will likely be influenced by factors such as the potential failure of additional small and medium-sized US banks (which is concerning given recent outflows of US bank deposits) and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the delay in raising the debt ceiling. These factors will play a greater role in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term performance.