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Report: Can Bitcoin Replace Gold As a Safe Asset?

Markets·April 24, 2023, 9:07 AM

In light of the substantial increase in Bitcoin (BTC) prices this year, a report from KB Financial Group in South Korea examined the potential for BTC to replace gold as a safe asset.

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The study delves into the factors behind the recent BTC price surge and emphasizes the need for caution when considering BTC as an alternative to traditional safe assets.

 

3 drivers behind BTC surge

From January 1 to March 31 this year, BTC experienced an impressive return of 71%. This surge can be attributed to three main factors: an anticipated increase in liquidity due to market expectations of unchanged or falling interest rates; central banks supplying liquidity to mitigate risks in the traditional banking system; and concerns over the potential delisting of cryptocurrencies should the US court’s decision on the Ripple-SEC case classify XRP, Ripple’s native token, as securities, prompting investors to shift their focus to BTC.

The report suggests that the current BTC boom is more likely a result of short-term arbitrages and social conformity, given the greater information asymmetry in the crypto market, which lacks the disclosure system present in traditional stock markets.

 

Persisting risk factors

Last month, blockchain tracker Whale Alert spotted a transfer of 11,125 BTC from an anonymous address to Binance. The primary reason for moving assets from a private address to an exchange address is to sell them, indicating that investors should keep a watchful eye on Bitcoin trading volumes, particularly for any signs of large sell-offs.

Data from the crypto data analysis platform Glassnode revealed that the percentage of the BTC supply that was active over a year ago reached an all-time high of 68% in late March. Historically, such an increase has been associated with falling BTC prices.

This year, the BTC supply is set to grow due to the US government’s liquidation of seized BTC. As detailed in a March 31 Cointelegraph article, the US government seized 51,352 BTC in a case related to Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the online black market Silk Road. The government has already sold 9,861 BTC, with the remaining amount expected to be liquidated in four additional portions throughout the year.

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has been struggling to find banks in the US to store client funds after crypto-friendly banks Silvergate and Signature closed their doors.

 

Need for caution

Although various media sources often portray BTC as a safe asset, the report advises caution in accepting these claims. Although some liken BTC to “digital gold,” the two assets share little in common beyond their finite and scarce nature. In fact, gold and BTC diverge significantly in terms of social consensus, intrinsic value, price volatility, and investor protection.

Gold serves as a highly liquid asset with applications in both jewelry and industrial goods, in addition to its role as an investment vehicle. In contrast, BTC’s intrinsic value is still debatable. The price volatility of BTC is also a concern, as evidenced by its 71% spike in the first quarter of 2023, compared to gold’s modest 8% increase. Additionally, gold investment products are regulated by law, whereas BTC is not. The report thus recommends treating BTC as a high-risk product and incorporating it into a diverse investment portfolio.

It is worth noting that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the crypto market has demonstrated a stronger correlation with the global stock market in response to negative signals. This trend can be partially attributed to the growing presence of institutional investors in the crypto market, who often sell risky assets first to secure liquidity in the face of unexpected shocks.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jul 06, 2023

Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act to Take Effect in July Next Year

Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act to Take Effect in July Next YearThe Virtual Asset User Protection Bill was passed during the South Korean National Assembly’s plenary session last Friday, according to a report by news agency Newsis. The legislation aims to safeguard customer assets, establish regulations against unfair trading practices, and enforce penalties. The act is scheduled to take effect one year after its passage.Photo by KS KYUNG on UnsplashDefinition of virtual assetsUnder the act, a virtual asset is defined as a digital representation of economic value that can be digitally traded or transferred. It’s important to note that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are not considered virtual assets. Virtual assets with characteristics of securities will initially fall under the jurisdiction of the Capital Market Act.Roles of Korea’s central bankThe act grants the Bank of Korea (BOK) the authority to request data and information from virtual asset service providers (VASPs). This provision is deemed necessary for the Korean central bank to formulate monetary and financial policies, despite virtual assets not being equivalent to traditional currencies.Responsibilities of VASPsMoreover, VASPs are obligated to segregate users’ virtual assets from their own holdings. VASPs are also required to reserve the same type and quantity of virtual assets entrusted by users and maintain a certain proportion of these assets in a cold wallet, which is an offline storage solution.Unfair trading practices will be regulated in a similar manner as outlined in the Capital Market Act. The act specifically prohibits the use of undisclosed information, price manipulation, fraudulent transactions, and trading of self-issued virtual assets. VASPs are barred from suspending deposits and withdrawals without legitimate reasons. They are also mandated to monitor suspicious transactions and take appropriate measures to safeguard users. Any suspected unfair trading practices must be promptly reported to financial authorities. Violators of these rules may face criminal penalties, liability for damages, and potential class action lawsuits.Powers of financial authoritiesThe act also clarifies the powers of financial authorities in supervising, inspecting, and taking action against virtual asset operators. Unfair trade practices can result in imprisonment for more than one year (up to 10 years for violations related to self-issued virtual assets) or fines ranging from three to five times the illicit gains. Assets acquired through unfair trade practices will be confiscated, or an equivalent value will be charged if confiscation is not feasible.Impact on crypto investigationsThe absence of legislation directly addressing unfair trading practices in the virtual asset market has posed challenges for prosecutors. They had to rely on existing statutes related to fraud, the capital market, and financial investments. Once the new act takes effect, prosecutors will no longer need to determine whether a virtual asset qualifies as a security or not.Regarding this development, a prosecutor told local legal news outlet Law Times that the implementation of the new act will escalate prosecutorial investigations into cryptocurrency incidents.Meanwhile, the individuals behind the crash of Terraform Labs’ stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister coin Luna will not be subject to this act due to the legal principle of nulla poena sine lege, which prevents the retrospective enforcement of criminal laws. Do Kwon, co-founder of Terraform Labs, was recently sentenced to four months in prison by a Montenegrin court for passport forgery after being arrested in March. The other co-founder, Daniel Shin, has been indicted by prosecutors in Korea.

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Policy & Regulation·

Jan 06, 2024

Chinese state publication calls for crackdown on crypto

China’s Legal Daily, a publication that falls under the supervision of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Commission for Political and Legal Affairs, has sounded an alarm regarding cryptocurrencies, raising concerns about their use as potential avenues for corruption. In the newspaper’s New Year’s Day edition, it quoted legal scholars, who had convened at the annual China Integrity and Legal Research Association meeting, who underscored the urgency of addressing the emerging threat posed by digital assets.Photo by Max van den Oetelaar on Unsplash‘Hidden channels’ for briberyIn particular, it focused on views expressed by Associate Professor Zhao Xuejun from Hebei University Law School. Zhao Xuejun warned against the use of virtual currency and electronic gift cards as “hidden channels” for bribery. Notably, these forms of payment, often stored in “cold storage” devices, offer a convenient means for transporting funds abroad, the academic claimed. This development aligns with recent warnings from state agencies, including the Supreme People’s Procuratorate and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, cautioning against the use of stablecoin Tether in yuan-related foreign exchange transactions, deeming such actions illegal. Anonymity and traceability concernsProfessor Mo Hongxian from Wuhan University Law School explicitly mentioned Bitcoin, highlighting the challenges associated with virtual currencies, such as their anonymity and difficulty in traceability, which can facilitate illegal activities. Despite lacking official recognition in China, Professor Hongxian stressed the need for judicial attention to transactions involving virtual currencies. Although China maintains a cryptocurrency ban, it actively explores blockchain technology for identity verification. The country’s central bank digital currency, e-CNY, still in the pilot stage, has witnessed significant development. Despite its limited geographic distribution, the digital yuan recorded transactions totaling nearly $250 billion in China as of June 2023, with international use noted in commodities sales. Varying degrees of enforcementChina has demonstrated that it can at times take a very hard line on restricting cryptocurrency trading and related activities, while at others, it seems to tolerate such activity or turn a blind eye. Last month China’s Supreme Procuratorate provided details on the nature of the prosecution of over-the-counter (OTC) crypto trader and RenrenBit founder, Zhao Dong. Zhao was handed down a seven year sentence for carrying out illicit crypto business operations. By contrast, an investigation carried out by the Wall Street Journal last year found that business has been thriving for the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance in China, despite the ban. Other crypto-related activity has been uncovered, flouting capital controls. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested recently that all wealthy Chinese individuals have access to banking in Hong Kong, allowing them to access, trade and use cryptocurrency. As part of the CCP’s intensified anti-corruption efforts, the focus on cryptocurrency’s potential role in financial crimes underscores the evolving landscape as use of digital currency unfolds. The Legal Daily article emphasizes the need for vigilance and regulatory measures to counteract the perceived threat of corruption facilitated by cryptocurrencies and electronic payment methods.  

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Policy & Regulation·

Jul 21, 2023

Myanmar Government in Exile Backs Crypto Bank Launch

Myanmar Government in Exile Backs Crypto Bank LaunchMyanmar is on the cusp of a financial revolution as the National Unity Government (NUG), the country’s exiled shadow government, introduces the Spring Development Bank (SDB), a crypto-based financial institution.With a mission to bestow long-awaited financial freedom and digitized sophistication upon the nation’s citizens, the SDB aspires to reshape Myanmar’s financial landscape.Built on PolygonThe bank derives its name from the Spring Revolution, an opposition movement that bravely challenges the ruling military junta. The goal of the SDB is to bring “freedom and democracy to the 55 million citizens of Myanmar,” a lofty ambition that reflects the NUG’s determination to empower its people through innovative means.Constructed on the Polygon Network, the SDB aims to revolutionize domestic and international payments, making them faster and more efficient. But the bank’s vision extends beyond just payments. Following a recent press conference, bank officials revealed plans to offer a diverse range of financial products, including fixed deposits, currency exchange services, cross-country remittances, and even digital gold savings options.Reaching the Burmese diasporaNotably, the SDB’s reach extends beyond Myanmar’s borders to the two-million-strong Burmese diaspora residing abroad. This diaspora frequently sends money back to their homeland, but the current remittance fees can soar as high as 30%. The bank intends to alleviate this burden, reducing the costs associated with sending money back to Myanmar.The Spring Development Bank operates under the licensing and regulation of the Interim Central Bank of Myanmar, which is under the control of the NUG. U Calvin, the bank’s CEO, emphasized that this launch marks the initial step towards restoring financial independence to Myanmar.The bank’s emergence comes amid Myanmar’s complex relationship with cryptocurrencies. While there is no specific legislation addressing cryptocurrencies, the Central Bank of Myanmar issued a ban on them in 2020, and the military junta later proposed a cybersecurity law that criminalized their usage in January 2022.Photo by Dan Gold on UnsplashJuly soft launchA soft launch of the SDB is scheduled for July 22, with 1,000 private beta users and 100 relationship managers. The bank expects to achieve a full launch in late August, with the goal of attracting 100,000 active users within the first six months of operation.Despite these regulatory challenges, Myanmar’s people have turned to cryptocurrencies as an escape from their dire financial situation. Since the February 2021 coup, the country’s economy has suffered significantly, with the World Bank estimating an alarming 18% annual contraction. Fading trust in the traditional banking system, controlled by the military, has further crippled the financial market.The Myanmar kyat (MMK) plummeted to an all-time low of 2,200 against the US dollar (USD) in September 2021, down from 1,330 in February 2020 (currently 1 USD = 2,100 MMK).The SDB’s arrival signals a glimmer of hope amidst these trying times, offering a beacon of financial opportunity for the citizens of Myanmar. With the support of the NUG, the bank is looking to take an innovative approach to better serve Burmese citizens, both at home and abroad.

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