Mt.Gox creditors start to confirm receipt of first repayments

Amid the ongoing cryptocurrency market slowdown, a South Korean analyst said a rebound will hinge on effective policy measures and sustainable business models.Photo by Kanchanara on UnsplashAnalyst urges policy and profitabilityAccording to an analysis by iM Securities researcher Yang Hyun-kyung, cited by local outlet Etoday, the current downturn stems from several factors: a liquidity crunch in short-term funding markets, a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising risk aversion, and a prevailing narrative of a cyclical correction. Yang noted that a strong dollar typically drains market momentum, as tighter global liquidity prompts investors to deleverage and reduce exposure to risk assets. He added that growing uncertainty over potential U.S. rate cuts in December has further fueled risk aversion among institutional investors, putting selling pressure on both major cryptocurrencies and altcoins. While the expected resolution of the U.S. government shutdown may create a more favorable environment for a modest technical rebound, Yang argued that the crypto sector still needs to develop profitable business models and gain growth momentum through supportive policy measures. Brokerage frames crypto as diversifierDespite the current headwinds, another Korean brokerage firm released a quarterly report framing digital tokens as an emerging alternative asset class. According to Etoday, Hanwha Investment & Securities CEO Jang Byung-ho wrote in the report that the primary goal of retail investment is to preserve purchasing power. He drew a parallel to the U.S. market in the 1980s, when bond investors would have seen their returns erode had they failed to recognize equities as a viable investment vehicle. Citing that lesson, Jang suggested investors consider digital assets as a new pillar for portfolio diversification. Diverging approaches from global central banksThese evolving viewpoints on crypto come against a complex global macroeconomic backdrop. From one perspective, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has begun quantitative easing (QE). Otavio Costa, a macro strategist at Crescat Capital, shared a chart on X showing that the value of the PBOC’s balance sheet assets is on track to surpass that of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Costa predicted the Fed would soon follow suit, stressing that investors are underexposed to hard assets. This potential easing contrasts with speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates next month. One BOJ board member noted at a recent policy meeting that most conditions for a hike have already been met and added that a move is likely once wage negotiations scheduled for spring point to sustained pay growth, as long as the global economy avoids major disruptions. These diverging policy directions have mixed implications for the crypto market. Typically, dovish measures like QE are seen as supportive, as increased liquidity tends to boost risk appetite. Rate hikes, by contrast, withdraw liquidity from the system, limiting the upside for risk assets like digital tokens. As economic conditions evolve and the industry adapts, investors will be watching closely to see how these shifts shape the market’s next moves. 

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has increased its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing an additional 20.195 BTC for approximately 200 million yen ($1.2 million), as announced after the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed on Monday. This acquisition brings the firm's total holdings to 161.2677 BTC, valued at over $10.1 million. According to The Block, the recent purchase is part of a broader strategy, initiated with the company's decision to allocate 1 billion yen ($6.3 million) for Bitcoin acquisitions funded by an upcoming bond issuance. This move follows a previous buy in June worth 250 million yen.Photo by Traxer on UnsplashStrategic investment responseMetaplanet's investment strategy mirrors that of U.S.-based MicroStrategy, which has significantly integrated Bitcoin into its treasury assets. MicroStrategy currently holds 226,331 BTC, amounting to more than 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. Citing economic challenges like high government debt and the depreciating yen, Metaplanet views Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability. Following Metaplanet’s latest acquisition, its stock saw a 1% rise on Monday, with an overall increase of 233% since it began investing in Bitcoin. 

A Cambodia-headquartered financial group recently cut off from the U.S. financial system is suspected of having operated in South Korea, raising fresh questions about cross-border crypto and currency flows tied to the group. According to the Dong-A Ilbo, which cited data from the Korea Customs Service (KCS), Huione Group—now sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN)—appears to have run a currency exchange in Seoul from 2018 to July 2024. The outlet reported that a banner on the premises displayed a logo identical to Huione’s, prompting suspicions about its ownership and control.Photo by Aleksandar Pasaric on PexelsTies to North Korean hackersThe exchange reported conducting roughly $20,000 in annual currency conversions during that period, excluding cryptocurrency transactions. The timeline overlaps with a period in which Huione Group reportedly received $150,000 in cryptocurrency from the North Korean hacking group Lazarus.  Connections also extend to Cambodia. Panda Bank—a local lender that shares a building with Huione subsidiaries—supports USDT transactions originating from South Korea. Panda Bank director He Yanming is listed as the owner of Huione Crypto, a virtual asset service provider (VASP), suggesting potential links between operations in Seoul and Phnom Penh. These developments come against the backdrop of a U.S. investigation disclosed in May, in which FinCEN said Huione’s business networks, including payments arm Huione Pay, collectively laundered at least $4 billion in illicit proceeds between August 2021 and January 2025. Crypto used in $2.6B illegal conversionsMeanwhile, recent KCS data also shows a rise in illegal currency conversions involving cryptocurrency by foreign nationals. The Korea Economic Daily reported conversions totaling 432 billion won ($302 million) in 2021, climbing to 836 billion won ($584.5 million) in 2023 and 956 billion won ($668.4 million) last year. Over the past eight years, the total amount involved in such cases reached 3.7 trillion won ($2.59 billion) across 28 instances. By value, Chinese nationals accounted for 84.1% of the total, followed by Australians (11.1%), Vietnamese (3.2%), and Russians (1.6%). The growing prevalence of cryptocurrency in illicit activity parallels a broader surge in crypto investment within the country. Many South Koreans have turned to digital assets, often with home ownership as a long-term goal. Trading on local exchanges, Bloomberg reported, is heavily skewed toward more volatile altcoins, which make up more than 80% of total volume.  That stands in contrast to global markets, where investors largely focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, which together make up more than half of overall trading. The momentum in local crypto investment intensified after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory, with crypto trading in Korea reaching $27 billion in December 2024, about 80% of turnover on the KOSPI stock index. The investigation underscores the growing challenge for regulators in tracking and containing cross-border financial networks that rely on cryptocurrency and informal money transfers. As crypto adoption deepens in South Korea and scrutiny widens abroad, authorities find themselves navigating an increasingly intricate intersection of financial opportunity, enforcement, and risk.